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Deadly Chinese poultry flu could spark worldwide pandemic
The Telegraph
By Anne Gulland, Global health security correspondent
18 hrs ago
A new strain of bird flu which kills 38 per cent of those it infects has been identified by the deputy chief medical officer for England as the most likely candidate to spark a worldwide flu pandemic.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England with special responsibility for emergency preparedness and pandemic planning, told the Daily Telegraph that the virus concerning him and others most was H7N9, a flu virus circulating in poultry in China.
He said the UK government was gathering as much intelligence on the virus as possible – looking at its geographic spread, the number of human cases and any changes in its genetic structure.
“[H7N9] is an example of another virus which has proven its ability to transmit from birds to humans. It’s possible that it could be the cause of the next pandemic,” he said.
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John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary University of London, said that bird flu was always through to have pandemic potential and the new strain was a concern.
“H5N1 was first isolated in 1997 and has had 19 years to float around. It’s had its chance to cause a worldwide pandemic but it looks like it’s not going to do it. But H7N9 is younger and stronger and is now waiting for its opportunity,” he said.
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More than a third of those who have so far contracted H7N9 die from the disease but that death rate would be unlikely to be replicated in a pandemic as the virus would change, said Prof Van-Tam.
“Mortality is about 38 per cent of known cases, higher than any of the human pandemic viruses. But it would be wrong to think we could have a pandemic virus in future that could kill 38 per cent of people. It would change,” he said.
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The highest number of cases of H7N9 infection were in the winter of 2016-17 when there were 460 cases. This year there were just three cases.
Professor Oxford said the waxing and waning of the virus was to be expected.
“It might be to do with climate, it might be to do with movement of people or movement of geese, ducks or swans. It's normal,” he said.
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https://www.msn.com/en-xl/asia/top-s...9lm?li=BBJDXDP
The Telegraph
By Anne Gulland, Global health security correspondent
18 hrs ago
A new strain of bird flu which kills 38 per cent of those it infects has been identified by the deputy chief medical officer for England as the most likely candidate to spark a worldwide flu pandemic.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for England with special responsibility for emergency preparedness and pandemic planning, told the Daily Telegraph that the virus concerning him and others most was H7N9, a flu virus circulating in poultry in China.
He said the UK government was gathering as much intelligence on the virus as possible – looking at its geographic spread, the number of human cases and any changes in its genetic structure.
“[H7N9] is an example of another virus which has proven its ability to transmit from birds to humans. It’s possible that it could be the cause of the next pandemic,” he said.
....
John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary University of London, said that bird flu was always through to have pandemic potential and the new strain was a concern.
“H5N1 was first isolated in 1997 and has had 19 years to float around. It’s had its chance to cause a worldwide pandemic but it looks like it’s not going to do it. But H7N9 is younger and stronger and is now waiting for its opportunity,” he said.
...
More than a third of those who have so far contracted H7N9 die from the disease but that death rate would be unlikely to be replicated in a pandemic as the virus would change, said Prof Van-Tam.
“Mortality is about 38 per cent of known cases, higher than any of the human pandemic viruses. But it would be wrong to think we could have a pandemic virus in future that could kill 38 per cent of people. It would change,” he said.
...
The highest number of cases of H7N9 infection were in the winter of 2016-17 when there were 460 cases. This year there were just three cases.
Professor Oxford said the waxing and waning of the virus was to be expected.
“It might be to do with climate, it might be to do with movement of people or movement of geese, ducks or swans. It's normal,” he said.
...
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/asia/top-s...9lm?li=BBJDXDP