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Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

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  • #16
    Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

    Laidback Al,

    I hope like hell the switch has not been flipped.

    This story is really only 4 days old in terms of news reports and I believe we will get more clarity within the next week.

    What has me mucho concerned right now is that WHO has been silent in terms of a press release about the largest cluster which means they either haven't got a handle as to what is going on or they have got a handle and they are notifying the top of the food chain first before they make any announcements.

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    • #17
      Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

      Originally posted by siam
      I have a question, is it possible that the 57 samples are numerous samples from just 12 people, such as throat swabs, blood work, etc? That is isn't 57 separate people?
      The 57 samples are from 5 nurses, certain members of the medical staff from the hospital that had worked with the family, and residents of their village. The story is here in the thread about the family or the thread about the nurse that details all of this out.
      "We are in this breathing space before it happens. We do not know how long that breathing space is going to be. But, if we are not all organizing ourselves to get ready and to take action to prepare for a pandemic, then we are squandering an opportunity for our human security"- Dr. David Nabarro

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      • #18
        Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

        Two nurses ? I saw a post on another forum about two Indonesian nurses possibly contracting the virus. Is this confirmed ? If so, is there then the likelihood of efficient h2h ?

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        • #19
          Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

          I have seen a lot of people sit back and say "It doesn't look like this is it" and I am unsure how you can reach this conclusion on the small amount of information we have been given from this remote location.
          I'm looking for the same thing I think Al is- not just one family cluster (those are concerning enough!) but tranmission outside that family in casual contacts.

          Those second generation (if its true thats what it is) if they were the recipients of an easily transmitted virus, should have already spread it to their community. There should be many more cases noticable by now.

          Do I absolutely know thats the way it will happen? Heck, no! Its an assumption on my part.

          Is there the possibility that is why the WHO wasnt let into the village-that more are sick? I suppose it is- but I doubt it, because there ought to be more reports of it by now.

          You could be right DB, this might be the start- but I think its more likely an incremental step in that direction. If that is the case, and the sequences allowing for easier transmission are conserved, than we should see signs of it soon.

          Once I can suspend my emotional involvement and concern about apandemic and look at it from a purely science viewpoint- ya gotta admit, todays news and discussion are highlighting two very differenet but both equally possible ways a pandemic could begin.

          First, you have this large Indonesian cluster, and it looks like another step in the direction of slow but sure adaptation to a new host.

          Then theres the concerning story about the possible Ebola death on the Virgin airways flight from Africa to the UK.

          An isolated case of illness, in a large international airliner. If this is a case of easily transmitted hemorrhagic flu, then we'll probalby know by the end of this week. People from that flight should start breaking with symptoms within that time. Theres no indication that passenger tracking has been done, but that might be in process.

          Either way, both types of situtations are certainly worth watching. Either type of situation could easily herald the start. But unless we first become aware of the index case/cluster before that efficient transmission becomes apparent- IMHO it remains a waiting game, waiting to see if the ripples start to form.

          If this case in Indonesia is it, I think we'd have seen ripples by now. The info that there might have been an earlier relative that spread this to the apparent index ccase of the cluster is concerning. If we can work out the time line on that, maybe we have a better idea of the incubation time. If its longer than the 2-4 day period for normal flu, than we do have a chance to catch it-and a longer period of time to see if it got loose...
          Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,
          Rains from the sky a meteoric shower
          Of facts....They lie unquestioned, uncombined.
          Wisdom enough to leech us of our ill
          Is daily spun, but there exists no loom
          To weave it into fabric..
          Edna St. Vincent Millay "Huntsman, What Quarry"
          All my posts to this forum are for fair use and educational purposes only.

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          • #20
            Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

            LMonty,

            I am unsure if this is the start. Let's just say I am reserving judgement till more facts come in.

            There is way to much speculation going around from both WHO and Indonesia onto the source of these infections.

            First it is fertalizer.
            Then it was pigs.
            Scratch that, it was the food they ate a barbecue.
            Wait a sec it could be the cats and dogs.
            Hold on, it might be faeces.

            All of these explanations have been raised by WHO and Indonesia and non of them seem to be sticking.

            They don't close the door on human-to-human transmission, they just don't put it on the 'most likely explanation' list.

            Right now there are at least 4 more human cases of bird flu in Indonesia, that would make somewhere around 12-15 for the month.

            Based on the numbers from King County, Seattle by day 28 we should see 31 cases. Now if we see 31 cases across Indonesia for the month of May I am going to be very concerned because there is very little knowledge about where all these cases are getting infected.

            Could this just be some bubbling on the way to rapid boil, almost like April in Kansas in the year 1918, or could this be the start of the rapid boil?

            I have no idea, but the numbers are still going up.

            Oh and in regards to the Ebola on the airplane.

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            • #21
              Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

              If the UK Ebola thing is really H5N1, we will be seeing cases from the origin country very soon. She would have been shedding virus for a week now.

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              • #22
                Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

                Based on the numbers from King County, Seattle by day 28 we should see 31 cases. Now if we see 31 cases across Indonesia for the month of May I am going to be very concerned because there is very little knowledge about where all these cases are getting infected.
                we know the virus is endemic in Indoesian poultry/birds- so unless its in close physical or contact proximity to the cluster- its not gonna necessarily mean they are all connected. They could easily be from other sources.

                Put that same 30 cases in one or adjoining villages, and I'm losing sleep.
                Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,
                Rains from the sky a meteoric shower
                Of facts....They lie unquestioned, uncombined.
                Wisdom enough to leech us of our ill
                Is daily spun, but there exists no loom
                To weave it into fabric..
                Edna St. Vincent Millay "Huntsman, What Quarry"
                All my posts to this forum are for fair use and educational purposes only.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Indonesia Bird Flu Issues

                  If the UK Ebola thing is really H5N1, we will be seeing cases from the origin country very soon. She would have been shedding virus for a week now.
                  I would think so too, goju.

                  but this is why Africa concerns me- that area has such crappy healthcare, that unless theres a major metropolitan ceter, I'm not sure it would rise above the background level of illness to be reported on in the Western press in just a weeks time. Especially if it was a hemorrhagic case of flu- because only a portion of the victims might have hemorrhagic symptoms, right? If its Ebola, that might just show up faster-as most victims will have a hemorrhagic presentation.

                  Hey, I dont KNOW any of the answers here, for sure. I'm talking out loud here, exploring the ideas I have with you. I'm open to other takes on it. I just want to understand the reasons it might be otherwise. Just trying to think it thru logically.
                  Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,
                  Rains from the sky a meteoric shower
                  Of facts....They lie unquestioned, uncombined.
                  Wisdom enough to leech us of our ill
                  Is daily spun, but there exists no loom
                  To weave it into fabric..
                  Edna St. Vincent Millay "Huntsman, What Quarry"
                  All my posts to this forum are for fair use and educational purposes only.

                  Comment

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