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Based on your numbers, Figure that by day 30 you'd better be "sheltering in place and all clear would be about day 140 it would be safe to re enter the world...
Thats about 3.6 months
if you shelter later and exit earlier you may get by with 2.5 - 3 months
Even if you take into account the highest of the possible infected numbers reported in Indonesia, the count is not high enough to indicate efficient and sustained H2H. The pandemic has not started.
All I am saying is that it doesn't explode as fast as you are thinking.
It takes some time for these case numbers to start building up.
That is why I said you should be watching very carefully and not let your guard down if you don't hear something for a few days with the situation in Indonesia.
In essence you will know by the end of the month whether or not the switch has been flipped on this one.
I have been wondering about the apparent inability to find the source of the family's infection - whether environment, poultry, or another human. Recalling a post I read yesterday, I was curious about the sister of the first woman/man to die. This is a snippet of the post found here:
On Wednesday, May 10, a woman named Anta Beru Ginting, aged 29, died at the hospital at about 5 a.m. local time. Her relationship to the others has not been clearly stated, though there is some indication that she may have been a sister of Praise Ginting, and therefore aunt to Roy Karokaro. She was identified by some local sources as living in Kabanjahe, the capital of the Karo Regency (district), and not in the village where the others lived, but the accuracy of this last statement is not known.
Did she travel from her home village to the family gathering or to care for her ill sister? Did she arrive prior to the onset of illness or afterwards? Chances are she didn't come to town to spread manure. These seem to be easy answers for the local investigators and would shed significant light on the situation, IMO. I wonder if we will ever know.
Just a comment on the "panic" (or protest?) in the village mentioned in previous posts... It seems to me that their chief complaint is they culled (or have been instructed to cull) their poultry in spite of the negative tests on local poultry. Compensation for culling, if based upon positive or negative tests is, and should, be an issue for these poor villagers.
Any clarification would be appreciated.
"In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or womanhttps://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine
All I am saying is that it doesn't explode as fast as you are thinking.
It takes some time for these case numbers to start building up.
That is why I said you should be watching very carefully and not let your guard down if you don't hear something for a few days with the situation in Indonesia.
In essence you will know by the end of the month whether or not the switch has been flipped on this one.
In an article from last year, some researchers distinguish between transmissibility and basic reproductive number for airborne pathogens.
Basic Reproductive Number (R0) refers to the the ratio of a single infected individuals infecting others in close contact situations. When this number is equal to one (1) each infected individual is only infecting one other person. When it is less than one, it means that over time fewer and fewer people are being infected. And when this number is greater than one (1) it means that each infected individual is infecting more and more people.
But according to the article, one also has to consider transmissibility
In any given network exists a critical transmissibility value, Tc, which indicates whether a large-scale epidemic is probable. Any disease with average transmissibility <Tc cannot cause sustained transmission within a population and will thus be limited to small outbreaks. Such diseases die out because of the probabilistic nature of transmission before the disease has a chance to spread to the population at large.
We just don't know what the transmissibility value is for this group of infected people. Were they, as Niman asserts, all infected from an index case or were they infected due to some common source.
Given that it has been more than two weeks, I think we can assume that the transmissibility rate is not very high for this cluster. The R0 number will be dependent on how these people actually got infected and whether or not any more individuals have been infected, but we don't know about yet.
Given that it has been more than two weeks, I think we can assume that the transmissibility rate is not very high for this cluster. The R0 number will be dependent on how these people actually got infected and whether or not any more individuals have been infected, but we don't know about yet.
I still don't think that this can be assumed.
From the data we have been given on what type of infection rate to expect we have these two data points to work with at this time.
Day 1: 0
Day 28: 31
So if we are currently sitting at day 14 how many people should be infected?
5?
10?
15?
I think it would be most likely somewhere around 10.
So we are currently at day 14 and we have 8 people in one family cluster and 6 deaths from that family cluster.
We also have the potential for a nurse to be infected (I don't think the current negative on the nurse can be taken at face value).
If the nurse is included that would make it 9 cases, which brings us pretty close to something that one would expect at the halfway point between day 0 and day 28.
Once again, I think we should assume nothing and keep our eye on the numbers. You have been given a guide on what to expect. Now is the easy part, match the numbers to your guide.
If the case numbers reach into the 20's or higher within the next 2 weeks then you can be assured that we have a major problem.
To me, it is not the growth in "raw" numbers that is critical; it is the ease of transmission. If in fact this is H2H then I would have expected that there would be more non-family members infected by now. Assuming an index case was asymptomatic for several days I think others besides family members would be infected by now and spreading the virus even further.
I think the time to worry is when we have an H5N1 cluster of individuals who only had casual contact with each other.
What worries me even more is the fatality rate. It is not going down. 6 out of 8 and if you take the tamiflu and ventilators away from them... we are looking at a virus with a 100% kill rate.
This is as bad as it gets.
If this strain goes efficient H2H ... Heaven help us all.
To me, it is not the growth in "raw" numbers that is critical; it is the ease of transmission. If in fact this is H2H then I would have expected that there would be more non-family members infected by now. Assuming an index case was asymptomatic for several days I think others besides family members would be infected by now and spreading the virus even further.
I think the time to worry is when we have an H5N1 cluster of individuals who only had casual contact with each other.
The problem is you really don't know that this hasn't already happened.
There are 12 people who were mentioned as showing symptoms and another 57 samples that have been sent to Hong Kong for testing.
It some of those cases come back positive than they could very well have become infected by the casual contact you are looking for.
I have seen a lot of people sit back and say "It doesn't look like this is it" and I am unsure how you can reach this conclusion on the small amount of information we have been given from this remote location.
Once again, not enough is known and it will be known in the next 2 weeks.
I have a question, is it possible that the 57 samples are numerous samples from just 12 people, such as throat swabs, blood work, etc? That is isn't 57 separate people?
DB, if you are right, we won't have to wait 2 more weeks. More cases should be starting to show up soon. The problem, of course, is getting accurate information. No country, even Indonesia, wants to be remembered as the country where the pandemic started.
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