Excerpt from Countering Zika in Latin America
Science 14 Jul 2016:
DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219
Full link: http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...e.aag0219.full
- Neil M. Ferguson,
- Zulma M. Cucunub?,
- Ilaria Dorigatti,
- Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani,
- Christl A. Donnelly,
- Maria-Gloria Bas??ez1,
- Pierre Nouvellet,
- Justin Lessler
- Corresponding author. Email: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
- These authors contributed equally.
Science 14 Jul 2016:
DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0219
Full link: http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...e.aag0219.full
. . .
We expect the current [Zika] epidemic to be largely over in 3 years, with seasonal oscillations in incidence caused by variation in mosquito populations and transmissibility. Herd immunity will likely then cause a delay of over a decade until further large epidemics are possible . . .
What is the likelihood that the virus will become endemic or that sporadic epidemics will occur with sufficient regularity to pose an equivalent risk? Our analysis suggests that once the current epidemic is over, herd immunity will lead to a delay of at least a decade before large epidemics may recur . . .
We expect the current [Zika] epidemic to be largely over in 3 years, with seasonal oscillations in incidence caused by variation in mosquito populations and transmissibility. Herd immunity will likely then cause a delay of over a decade until further large epidemics are possible . . .
What is the likelihood that the virus will become endemic or that sporadic epidemics will occur with sufficient regularity to pose an equivalent risk? Our analysis suggests that once the current epidemic is over, herd immunity will lead to a delay of at least a decade before large epidemics may recur . . .
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