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  • Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

    Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

    A Zogby/University of Texas poll found that only 30% of respondents would get a vaccine for the novel H1N1 outbreak if one was available. Only 18% saw the outbreak as a severe threat, and 96% said they have not curbed their visits to restaurants or malls. Forty percent were confident in the government's ability to manage the outbreak. Only 36% of respondents said they received a flu immunization for the 2008-09 season. The online poll surveyed 1,442 adults between May 4 and 6.

  • #2
    Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

    What the "kids" knows

    They are robust and young,
    who thinks about flu there?
    Human contacts is prefered ...

    This atitude are fueled by the many main TV media mutism about the sustained spreading, and their labeling of all this as an ordinary seasonal flu danger clouding the real matter.

    The even more ridiculization of this pandemic wave as web flu blogs "hysteria" and the continuation of speaking of redacted shock scenarios, contribute to relax the general public. Even if any scenario could exist, the outcome will be the same if the infection continue to spread.
    Only an vanishing of the actual spreading could allow such relax, but the next waves probably don't.

    To not mention the total public release distance from the various local health institutions or professionals.

    Who said that a flu pandemic is going on?
    There is "nothing out there" - until the big TV brother send its waves of aknowledgment through the air ...,
    or until the victims starts to thumble down from the stairways ...

    Close those flu proliferation places of gatherings when it is already on small numbers ...

    P.S.
    A poll is only an statistical probability, not the real behaviour of the masses when they finaly would digit they are incubated.
    As well Laidback Al elaborated in an previous reply ...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

      Originally posted by Siegfried X View Post
      Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat
      If those figures hold, there were be some rather dramatic natural seletion in the next 12 months.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

        Can you elaborate Dr Niman? The reason I joined this forum was because I couldn't find any answers that addressed what immediately occurred to me when I heard about this new strain... what is the risk of it recombining with highly pathological avian flu strains which would make them easily transmissible between humans.

        The ability of pigs to act as a mixing bowl rather alarms me...particularly as they can be asymptomatic carriers of H5N1.

        Is this likely to happen or were you thinking in terms of slight mutations in the current strain making it more virulent?

        Also I mentioned fecal-oral transmission of H1N1 (swine)the other day and you seemed to think this was unlikely. The reason I asked this is because of how H5N1 is transmitted.

        Transmission experiments in chickens revealed that the H5N1 viruses are spread by fecal-oral transmission rather than by aerosol, and that the viruses are inactivated by drying of feces at ambient temperature. However, infectivity is maintained for at least 4 days in wet feces at 25 degreesC. There were differences in the morphology of the H5N1 viruses isolated from birds and humans. The perpetuation of H5N1 influenza viruses in the poultry markets in Hong Kong and the transmission of these viruses to humans emphasize the importance of these markets in the epidemiology of influenza. The poultry markets are of critical importance in the perpetuation and transmission of influenza viruses to other avian species and to mammals, including humans.
        http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9878612

        Strikes me that if pigs can easily get infected with swine fever (that Canadian incident seems to suggest that they can) then contamination from their feces is something we should be fairly worried about. Instead of tracking outbreaks in humans shouldn't we be concentrating more on pigs?

        Could a recombined strain of H5N1+H1N1 in swine mutate to be spread by coughing and sneezing too?

        And if this year's seasonal flu gets in the mix might it be totally resistant to Tamiflu ?

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

          It looks like the swine in Alberta were the source of the H1N1 (they are clearly closely related, but have too many changes to have come from recently infected humans).
          The swine H1N1 is paralleling 1918 and is likely to get much more severe. The last time a swine flu was easily transmitted in a human population was 1918.
          The virus will adapt to its new host and the associated problems are likely in increase significantly.
          Last edited by Niko; May 17th, 2009, 06:30 PM. Reason: typos

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

            Originally posted by niman View Post
            problems are likely in increase significantly.
            Dr Niman, Do you have any *rough* time scale as to when we will see an upshift in the problems?

            My guess is that cases will start to significantly rise just after the 20th June in the USA. Maybe slightly later.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

              Originally posted by Siegfried X View Post
              Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat
              Some of us think the cure is likely to be as dangerous as the disease, especially considering the probable source of the vaccine, the company that sorta kinda accidentally almost released the H5N1 virus into a batch of vaccine. What if the folk in Poland hadn't tested that on ferrets? We'd be dealing with a different world now.

              I'm no conspiracy theorist, and I think it's likely that Baxter just made an unbelievably stupid mistake. Those things happen all the time. But it sure undermines my confidence in their abiity to do things right the next time around.

              I do take this very seriously. But I'm the sole caregiver for a disabled adult and I already have to maintain hospital-level sanitation practices to avoid being exposed to body fluids. Wearing gloves and a mask and washing everything in sight is nothing new. We have a good year's worth of stored supplies, and if things get bad, I'm going to hunker down and wait it out, sans vaccines.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

                I'm a relative newbee to FT, but I wonder about this "divide" that seems to exist. The mainstream media have given up carrying any news about H1N1, WHO says it's not dangerous to visit Mexico, only a "few" cases exist out there, one or two--and then on FT, people are stocking up on everything, predicting hundreds of thousands of casualties, and making me very nervous. How is it possible to predict what the virus will do, when it seems to be trickling out into the world? I am trying to understand which "side" is more apt to be true. Thanks!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

                  Hi English Teacher! I'm also an English teacher. I have always been a big reader of the news. When I noticed that the avian flu really hadn't "gone away" as most people believed, I started reading the flutrackers site. If you read along here, you will begin to see a bigger picture because you are seeing news sources from all over the world. You will notice that some countries, such as China, react very seriously to H1N1. I think this is because they have already had to combat SARS and avian flu, which is a constant threat and menace in that region. Most people think that it is statistically just a matter of time before a virus mutates and becomes very dangerous to people.

                  I do buy some extra food all year long. If you are a teacher, it's pretty easy to rotate because in the summer when funds are low, you can cook a lot of it and start restocking . I don't think anyone could tell you with certainty that something devastating will happen. Since September 11th (I am American), I made a decision to know more about the world, and I just like to have my eyes open. I feel like I will deal better with the things that happen.

                  I'm also a medical reserve corp volunteer. The Red Cross will tell you that you should have two weeks of food and water as well as a well-stocked medical kit with your basic first aid and over the counter medicines. It's also good to have extra of your prescription meds, although that is hard to do for many of us with insurance restrictions. You can have all that on hand and it doesn't define you as crazy, just prepared. The way I look at is that I might prepare myself and family for a terrible virus where we have to stay in our homes like that had to in Mexico, or I might end up needing it for a hurricane, a flood, a tsunami (who knows). Recently in Massachusetts there was a devastating ice storm and people went without power and heat for many weeks. So, you never know why you might have to prepare, but you might as well.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

                    Originally posted by English Teacher View Post
                    I'm a relative newbee to FT, but I wonder about this "divide" that seems to exist. The mainstream media have given up carrying any news about H1N1, WHO says it's not dangerous to visit Mexico, only a "few" cases exist out there, one or two--and then on FT, people are stocking up on everything, predicting hundreds of thousands of casualties, and making me very nervous. How is it possible to predict what the virus will do, when it seems to be trickling out into the world? I am trying to understand which "side" is more apt to be true. Thanks!
                    I'm not sure there really is one side vs. another, except for a relative few (total survivalists who see nuclear holocaust on the horizon vs. total scoffers who can't deal with any change). But the mass media can't do a good job of presenting the whole picture in a few sound bytes. Of necessity, considering the constraints on time and the breadth of issues they have to cover, their commentary is only going to hit the highlights, and the most sensational of the highlights at that. So we're lucky to have sites like Flu Trackers, where worldwide news can be aired, and where people who know what they're talking about can speak freely without a producer in their earpiece telling them they've only got five seconds to wind it up.

                    That doesn't mean the people here have a monopoly on the "truth," whatever that turns out to be. But it does mean you'll find a much wider and more varied range of thought, opinion and actual facts here than in the media.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

                      Well said, LizW. English Teacher, I remember feeling very similarly awhile back. Hang in there! The writers for the mainstream media write the stories based upon their (mostly) under-educated knowledge of the subject. And, then a totally different person writes the headline.

                      There are a few journalists that have proven over the years to be knowledgeable and balanced. Helen Branswell of Canadian Press probably stands at the head of the line. Then there is Donald McNeil of the NY Times. Others here might add to the list. Pay attention to what these people have to say.

                      On this forum, there is excellent and balanced information. We sometimes disagree, passionately, but we all want to present real and factual information. On the whole, the posters here are pretty well aware of the difference between their 'opinions' and 'facts' and will say so.

                      Never hesitate to ask for clarification...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Middle ground

                        I am trying to understand which "side" is more apt to be true.
                        There is actually a middle ground which is that the flu, any flu, is always dangerous. That is why the regular flu kills a quarter to half million people every year.

                        Even though most people get no flu or a mild illness, a small percentage of people get what might be called primary influenza, where the flu virus directly attacks their lungs. Unless these patients take medicine within a day or two after their symptoms begin, they are dead or on life support at a hospital, unable to breath on their own.

                        That is why the US government's advice to wait before seeking treatment is so dangerous. The government says not to see a doctor or take medicine until symptoms are "severe", but by then it is too late for patients with viral pneumonia from influenza.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Middle ground

                          Thank you, everyone, for taking my questions seriously. I do appreciate the knowledge and wisdom apparent on FT; even though I'm an English teacher I have followed epidemiology for about 35 years (should have been a doctor) and I am concerned about this flu bug. I'm one of the people who most likely had a very mild case of it (around Easter) and don't want anyone I know to get it. I agree that prudently stocking up against a weather incident or other "disaster" is very smart, and I have been making sure we have extra cans of soup, etc. A big city in Pennsylvania isn't a good place to be a survivalist, though. Again, thanks for everything you all said.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

                            I know of no big city in Pennsylvania nearly as large as Mexico City and although they were a little late in implementing the closure/isolation it does seem to have helped slow the spread there. This is why surveillance and tracking of clusters and more severe cases are so important since it is possible to isolate yourself even in a large city.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Few want vaccine or see H1N1 as a threat

                              True. My city isn't even as big as a suburb of MC. I think it's a matter of developing a mindset of isolation--when there doesn't seem to be a need yet.

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