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Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

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  • #46
    Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

    Thank you Ken/KBD, gsgs,

    2 years ago seems that the whole world various wild birds will start to dying of bird flu, and that it will pass to a human strain maybe: first in 6 months, than after 1 year, than maybe the other year, now maybe in 1-5 year, maybe in the next 10..., or at any moment...
    This is exactly the reasons why the vast community (included the bigger part of the medical sector around the globe) think that this "never" will happen (or "enaugh never"), and because of that, they said there are no necessity to redirect funds to prepare the med./vet./local public community system.
    The exception are the present world/nat/local plans which recommendations (mainly) in many communityes are not settled up in a real form of local budgets official items - the result is that there, nothing will be stored.

    From Ken,
    Originally posted by KBD View Post
    ...
    This was almost two years ago...
    (1) Not only was I proven wrong, but this manager now thinks we're in the clear and there is no longer the risk of a pandemic occuring.
    ...
    The country's health and vet systems are weak and that makes the situation very precarious.
    (2) What should we do? PREPARE for an imminent public health threat -- be it pandemic flu, SARS, chikungunya, whatever.
    The problem is in (1) indeed, but the cure can dificulty be by (2) if "we are on our own", and if we want to resolve:
    "The country's health and vet systems are weak and that makes the situation very precarious."

    If "we are on our own" (are computed the necessary ammount of money for this (2)?) who will give this money (now?)?
    Apart that, the preparations for an airborne (flu type) "pandemic" are quite differents than for other vector (not airborne) illnesses.

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

      From "FluWiki" today,
      LA, WCMessenger.com:


      <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=534 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left width=534 colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top align=left width=393><NOEDIT>Planning for the big flu

      Published Sunday, September 30, 2007
      By Mandy Bourgeois
      It's not pleasant, but discussing what to do if 10 percent of the county's population dies is something the Wise County Pandemic Flu Committee has to do.

      "If you don't plan and then it does happen, then future generations are going to ask why we didn't prepare for this when we knew it could happen," said public health consultant Ron Tomlinson at a committee meeting on Tuesday, Sept. 25.

      A committee consisting of representatives from Wise Regional Health System, North Texas Bank, Coker-Hawkins Funeral Home, South Wise Chamber of Commerce, Wise County and several businesses met on Tuesday to discuss the possibility of a flu pandemic in the county and how local businesses and organizations need to react. The committee is working with Denton, Ellis and Cooke counties on flu pandemic planning under a grant awarded to Denton County.

      "This committee is about creating some type of plan to meet a pandemic flu situation so the citizens are able to function," said Dick Chase, committee chairman. "We're trying to aid the citizens by planning for this situation."

      In addressing
      the possibility of a flu pandemic,
      the committee discussed a decreasing workforce left to deal with the pandemic. A decreased number of doctors and nurses would have to handle an increased number of patients. In the event of power outages, residents would rely on local grocery stores, also with decreased staffing, to supply rations of water and food. Schools would probably close, causing an additional decrease in the workforce as parents would need to stay home to take care of children. Deaths from the pandemic could potentially overwhelm the local funeral homes.

      The thing the committee must remember during all this is that the surrounding counties are also dealing with the same situation, therefore, there is no where to turn for help.

      "Pandemic flu is not 'here it comes and there it goes.' It comes in waves," Tomlinson said. "All of these things need planning. It's not safe to wait until it hits Los Angeles."

      Chase said that schools, banks and hospitals must have a plan in place and part of the committee's purpose is to make sure those plans coordinate rather than conflict with each other.

      The committee meets monthly and the next meeting is scheduled for 10 a.m. Tuesday, Oct. 23, at the Wise County EMS Building in Decatur. Representatives from businesses, organizations or interested residents of Wise County are welcome to attend.

      For more information, contact Caryn Dunn, Cities Readiness Initiative volunteer coordinator at (940) 627-5743 or (940) 210-8020.
      </NOEDIT>
      </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

        Does the probability of a pandemic increase over time?

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

          it should decrease, while we improve our countermeasures.

          But OTOH immunity to previous strains decreases when people get older
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

            I voted 90 to 100% and think at this point I would have voted the same in a 2 year pole. Its like a runaway train now. It just depends on the speed of the train as to when it gets to the station!

            I just hope that many more people will be prepared when the train gets here. There is not enough news...sites like this would warn them if they knew about them. But without some hard and fast news reports on their evening news, so many remain in the dark and unprepared.
            I have four things to learn in life:
            to think clearly without hurry or confusion; to love everybody sincerely; to act in everything with the highest motives; to trust in God unhesitatingly.

            ~Albert Schweitzer~

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

              <TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>Today 02:50 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 103511" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Cindie</TD><TD class=alt2>I voted 90 to 100% and think at this point I would have voted the same in a 2 year pole. ...
              I just hope that many more people will be prepared when the train gets here. There is not enough news...sites like this would warn them if they knew about them.
              _____
              If 100%, than I must get some answer to my question from another thread:
              Did the initiative for preparing the hospital come from the hospital staff prepared instructions, or the hospital previously received formal official instructions (or an dispositive paper) from the local (town), or "upper", medical (or official) establishment, which dictate an activation for preparation of the hospital (previously prepared pand. prep. docs) now?
              Or these are classified info?! The hospital name is anonimous.
              _____
              But without some hard and fast news reports on their evening news, so many remain in the dark and unprepared.
              _____
              Correct, but if it is realy an stranded train, why the prime of the official scientific world community don't make an clear statement about?

              </TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>Today 02:00 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 103505" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>gsgs</TD><TD class=alt2>it should decrease, while we improve our countermeasures. ...
              _____
              The countermeasures are not improved at the needed speed in some part of the world obviously, and than the probability still must raise in time.

              </TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>Today 01:43 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 103502" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>AnneZ</TD><TD class=alt2>Does the probability of a pandemic increase over time?
              Mathematicaly speaking: if this is natural matter, than the imput variables are enaugh mixed that nobody knows for shure...
              A free shot: the probability must increase...

              </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                naturally the probability (say, per year) also decrease,
                because each passed opportunity demonstrates the inability of
                H5N1. When there is no H5N1-pandemic in the next 100 years,
                then you won't expect it in year 101...
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                  Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                  naturally the probability (say, per year) also decrease,
                  because each passed opportunity demonstrates the inability of
                  H5N1. When there is no H5N1-pandemic in the next 100 years,
                  then you won't expect it in year 101...
                  gsgs, I think you need to distinguish between the probability of a H5N1 pandemic versus a pandemic from any other influenza virus. While it could be true that H5N1 does not cause a pandemic in the next 100 years, it is more true that there will be one or more pandemics during that same period.
                  http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                    If 100&#37;, than I must get some answer to my question from another thread:
                    Did the initiative for preparing the hospital come from the hospital staff prepared instructions, or the hospital previously received formal official instructions (or an dispositive paper) from the local (town), or "upper", medical (or official) establishment, which dictate an activation for preparation of the hospital (previously prepared pand. prep. docs) now?
                    Or these are classified info?! The hospital name is anonimous.
                    _____
                    But without some hard and fast news reports on their evening news, so many remain in the dark and unprepared.
                    _____
                    Correct, but if it is realy an stranded train, why the prime of the official scientific world community don't make an clear statement about?

                    I'm not sure what you are asking except maybe that you want to know why people here are unprepared while the hospital itself is somewhat prepared? As a hospital we made a Pan Flu plan for the hospital which we have been working hard to set in motion. We are by no means "done" but far enough along to take a breath....and realize that we need to set in motion a new plan to educate the people in our small city. I have been talking about town meetings and asking for advice as some will tell you for awhile. We ARE working to correct the lag in this important undertaking.....we have had a town meeting now....spoke to a club, joined a tech fair, set up a Pan Flu booth at the county fair and will speak at the local college this month. We have a plan for this now too and race to make up for lost time. I hope that answers your question.

                    And I dont think it IS a stranded train....I think it is a train in motion!! Why no one is warning people thru the media is a mystery to me....maybe they want to avoid a panic til its too late?
                    Last edited by sharon sanders; October 4, 2007, 05:19 PM. Reason: as per request from Cindie - add quote is from Tropical
                    I have four things to learn in life:
                    to think clearly without hurry or confusion; to love everybody sincerely; to act in everything with the highest motives; to trust in God unhesitatingly.

                    ~Albert Schweitzer~

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                      With respect,

                      I have to agree with a previous comment by gsg that we don't have the depth of experts willing to participate in this FT debate in order to come up with some reasonable probabilities.

                      That's not meant to dissuade participation or comment; however, it is a general request for an analytical framework when considering probabilities.

                      It just seems to my limited mind that the opinions of the populace on the liklihood of a pandemic involves a completely different research methodology than the question of H5N1's ability or inability to mutate towards pandemic potential.

                      I would like to see the social scientist who read FT to delve into the question of estimating and expressing through some number, index or indicator (doomsday clock ?) our fears or indiference about a pandemic.

                      At the same time I would like to understand from the mathematical, natural science and epidemiolocal worlds whether probability estimates could be generated for the various biological changes necessary, and the animal interactions necessary, for pandemic development.

                      And even from the financial/economic worlds, where business and stock cycles, and the social/psych basis for them, have been studied ad infinitum, how would they model and estimate the probability for a pandemic?

                      We can calculate the expected number of accidents due to the curvature in highway cloverleafs; we can predict when a tiger is going to strike ("Life of Pi"); we can write complex programs to make money; and we can survey the populance with an accuracy of 19 times out of 20.

                      So what are the experts thinking about the probability of a lethal, influenza pandemic?

                      Cheers,

                      J.
                      Last edited by cartski; October 4, 2007, 03:16 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                        Does the process by which a pandemic strain is arrived at affect probability.

                        Recombination?

                        Random mutations?

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                          I'm not voting in the poll, as explained below. I have, however, thought a lot about how to calculate the probablilty, and my thoughts go to how earthquake prediction is done. There is a kind of a chart they make to predict the chance that a building at point x will experience an earthquake of magnitude y within its design life, say 100 years. The chart is made by plotting the number of earthquakes per year in the database versus their size for all faults within 100 miles of point x. Now there are lots of magnitude 3 earthquakes, fewer size 4s, even fewer 5s, and just a handful of 6s and 7s and 8s over the last 100 years or so. But when you plot frequency versus magnitude, you get a pretty straight line, and the slope of the line is steep in areas where earthquakes are frequent, and flatter where earthquakes are rare.

                          So if I was to take on forecasting pandemics, I would divide them into magnitudes, perhaps based on the number of excess deaths. 1 excess death is small, but probably very frequent, while 10 million excess deaths is rare. I see a sort of pattern that moderate-size epidemics/pandemics are much more frequent than monster ones. So I bet there is a magnitude-frequency relationship that is pretty linear. So you take all the influenza seasons in the last 100 years, plot them by size against frequency, and see what the relationship looks like. This sort of thing is often pretty linear even when projected out to 200 or even 500 years.

                          Using that kind of diagram, I think we could talk in terms of what is the probablity that a given size of pandemic could occur in a given year, and estimate how often a really big one might be expected, in light of how long it's been since the last one of that size. But like earthquakes, they probably aren't predictable at a scale of one year. Yet over 100 years, you can forecast what the general pattern is liable to be. In Los Angeles,for example, you can expect a magnitude 7 earthquake every 50 years or so, and a magnitude 8 about every 150 years or so. So every year, there is a 1/50 probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake. Is this enough to change the way you would design a building or a bridge? You bet it is. Piles of money goes into earthquake engineering, because structures live about 100 years, and there is a good chance they will be clobbered within their lifetime.

                          I think the reason that you don't get professionals giving estimates for the next year is because the existing data doesn't justify that kind of a prediction. But I don't hear people talking about a magnitude-frequency relationship, either. There might be enough data to hack one together, I just don't know. But the payoff for doing good pandemic planning exists no matter when the thing hits, because in any year there is a chance it will happen just because it already has happened. And because people live nearly 100 years, there is a good chance that they will be clobbered once within their lifetime. You don't need a looming pandemic to justify planning. If there has been one within 100 years, that's a good enough justification to figure out how to deal with it.

                          In L.A., how many people are ready for a big earthquake? Not many. Despite the fact that a big one is inevitable and gets closer each year. But there is no way to figure out what year, and nobody is saying that it will happen this year. They just cringe every time there is a magnitude 6 or a 7, hoping it doesn't trigger that 8 that's waiting out there.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                            And because people live nearly 100 years, there is a good chance that they will be clobbered once within their lifetime. You don't need a looming pandemic to justify planning. If there has been one within 100 years, that's a good enough justification to figure out how to deal with it.

                            This is worth repeating. It is 100% certain that there will be another pandemic. We just don't know when. So planning for it just makes good practical sense.
                            http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                              Cindie, thank you for your answers!

                              My main question: was only an hospital decision to activate the pandemic plans, ot the activation paper come from town/county/state/national/... officials?
                              I think I can read the answer from your post:

                              We ARE working to correct the lag in this important undertaking.....we have had a town meeting now....spoke to a club, joined a tech fair, set up a Pan Flu booth at the county fair and will speak at the local college this month. We have a plan for this now too and race to make up for lost time. I hope that answers your question.

                              Means: this was an autonomous hospital decision to activate the plans (no "code red" in general)
                              _____
                              why people here are unprepared while the hospital itself is somewhat prepared?

                              This is understandeable because TV/Radio/newspapers media don't said anything enaugh troubled to make immediately worry the citizens.

                              And I dont think it IS a stranded train....I think it is a train in motion!! Why no one is warning people thru the media is a mystery to me....maybe they want to avoid a panic til its too late?

                              If the presumption is that the pandemic is imminent (we don't know this), than maybe they (world/...) realy want to avoid a panic til its too late, because if there are not already invested an enormous quantity of money nothing can be done (plus no vaccine, scarse medicine, ..., all things you can't fix on your own).
                              For personal preparements of other goods, an real massive TV/Radio/newspapers warning probably will result in an "stampedo of buyings", and consequently in big shortages of food, money, and other medicines (goods are trade globaly, also).

                              If the presumption is that the pandemic is NOT imminent (will be one day...) than doing the necessary will NOT be a vaste of money, but anyway, nobody want to redirect it if it isn't necessary now.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
                              __________________
                              I would rather prepare myself and my loved ones for a pandemic and find out there won't be one than to do nothing and find out there is.

                              Correct. If you have the possibility to make such an preparation, probably it is an good decision.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                                Laidback Al:
                                While it could be true that H5N1 does not cause a pandemic in the next 100 years, it is more true that there will be one or more pandemics during that same period.

                                I agreed.<!-- / message -->

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