Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

    Please make a subjective post on your opinion as to the probability of a H5N1 pandemic occuring in the next 5 years.

    The votes are not public.

    Link to discussion regarding this:

    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...1582#post31582
    53
    0%-10%
    1.89%
    1
    10%-20%
    0.00%
    0
    20%-30%
    1.89%
    1
    30%-40%
    0.00%
    0
    40%-50%
    3.77%
    2
    50%-60%
    13.21%
    7
    60%-70%
    9.43%
    5
    70%-80%
    16.98%
    9
    80%-90%
    7.55%
    4
    90%-100%
    45.28%
    24
    Last edited by sharon sanders; September 17, 2006, 03:17 PM.

  • #2
    Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

    can I change my vote ?
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

      any influenza-pandemic will count, even if it's not H5N1
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

        Clarification - Any pandemic influenza that is either H5N1, or has reassorted/recombined/mutated from/with H5N1.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

          I cast my vote at 100%. For those of you who do not know me, I have been following the H5N1 virus since it first erupted in humans in 1996. I was at a university at that time taking a course in medical geography. Each of us was to focus on one disease and be able to give a 1/2 hour presentation and write a thesis. I chose the pandemic of 1918. A very auspicious choice, although at the time of my choice bf was still unknown. I have been earnestly following its progress ever since. What I see is a disease that was at first geographically extremely limited. From the beginning the disease had the limited ability to infect humans and cause death within days, despite excellent early medical care. Because this disease first infected humans in Hong Kong, the local authorities quickly and decisively eradicated every potential vector within a few weeks. Obviously, although they did their best the disease still lingered in the wild bird population. Over the intervening years we have seen human cases grow from none, to less than 5 a year, to now, when we see cases at a rate greater than one/two a week. And more ominously, the outbreaks have primarily been in a part of the world that does not have the capability of finding and exterminating the vectors. Neither does it have a firm grasp on how many have actually died from the disease because it is frequently diagnosed as death from another cause. But there are even more reasons to be concerned.

          The W.H.O. has its eyes turned away from infectious diseases at the moment. Everyone is wondering who the next leader will be. And exacerbating this problem is the end of the tenure of Kofi Annan in November. A turnover in the leadership of the U.N. will also leave the W.H.O. rudderless for a while. Meanwhile, Indonesia has decided that all this talk of bf will damage its economy and limit tourism. Couple that with journalists who may not be as professional as we might hope. In other words the dark continent may now actually be a long archipelago in South East Asia.

          The last factors that needs to addressed are the virus itself and periodicity. The virus has already shown a penchant for wanting to inhabit a new host...us. When the case load starts to include clustering we should all sit up and take notice. And finally, the virus has shown itself to move through the human population with a fairly strong indication of periodicity. This should not surprise anyone. Over time a new/old strain will again infect birds. Scientists suspect the virus lingers in ice only to erupt again when all of the old antibodies to it have disappeared. As this new strain moves through the bird population, it occasionally has the ability to infect humans and other mammals. H5N1 seems to meet all the criteria. It has now spread to a large geographical base, can infect humans with greater ease and lies waiting in a part of the world we cannot view under a magnifying glass and, the number of patients has grown to the point that it is simply a matter of time before the odds have increased to the point where the dice will come up snake-eyes as it rearranges itself after each replication.
          Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

          Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
          Thank you,
          Shannon Bennett

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

            I tought the real question would be "Probability of a H5N1 pandemic occuring in the next 6 month ?"

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

              Originally posted by Shannon
              Scientists suspect the virus lingers in ice only to erupt again when all of the old antibodies to it have disappeared.
              Interesting . . . .
              Global warming part of an answer? (early snow in Utah this year)
              Voted 70 to 80%.
              Would like to see some abstract thoughts occasionally, rather than concrete.
              How about a poll based on the "gut instinct?" Of course one would have to forget momentarily about all the information gathered. And . . . really doubt the results would be much different.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                Shannon, excellent commentary, as always. Thank you. I also voted 90-100%.

                Originally posted by Shannon
                I cast my vote at 100%. For those of you who do not know me, I have been following the H5N1 virus since it first erupted in humans in 1996. I was at a university at that time taking a course in medical geography. Each of us was to focus on one disease and be able to give a 1/2 hour presentation and write a thesis. I chose the pandemic of 1918. A very auspicious choice, although at the time of my choice bf was still unknown. I have been earnestly following its progress ever since. What I see is a disease that was at first geographically extremely limited. From the beginning the disease had the limited ability to infect humans and cause death within days, despite excellent early medical care. Because this disease first infected humans in Hong Kong, the local authorities quickly and decisively eradicated every potential vector within a few weeks. Obviously, although they did their best the disease still lingered in the wild bird population. Over the intervening years we have seen human cases grow from none, to less than 5 a year, to now, when we see cases at a rate greater than one/two a week. And more ominously, the outbreaks have primarily been in a part of the world that does not have the capability of finding and exterminating the vectors. Neither does it have a firm grasp on how many have actually died from the disease because it is frequently diagnosed as death from another cause. But there are even more reasons to be concerned.

                The W.H.O. has its eyes turned away from infectious diseases at the moment. Everyone is wondering who the next leader will be. And exacerbating this problem is the end of the tenure of Kofi Annan in November. A turnover in the leadership of the U.N. will also leave the W.H.O. rudderless for a while. Meanwhile, Indonesia has decided that all this talk of bf will damage its economy and limit tourism. Couple that with journalists who may not be as professional as we might hope. In other words the dark continent may now actually be a long archipelago in South East Asia.

                The last factors that needs to addressed are the virus itself and periodicity. The virus has already shown a penchant for wanting to inhabit a new host...us. When the case load starts to include clustering we should all sit up and take notice. And finally, the virus has shown itself to move through the human population with a fairly strong indication of periodicity. This should not surprise anyone. Over time a new/old strain will again infect birds. Scientists suspect the virus lingers in ice only to erupt again when all of the old antibodies to it have disappeared. As this new strain moves through the bird population, it occasionally has the ability to infect humans and other mammals. H5N1 seems to meet all the criteria. It has now spread to a large geographical base, can infect humans with greater ease and lies waiting in a part of the world we cannot view under a magnifying glass and, the number of patients has grown to the point that it is simply a matter of time before the odds have increased to the point where the dice will come up snake-eyes as it rearranges itself after each replication.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                  Originally posted by Shannon
                  ......

                  The last factors that needs to addressed are the virus itself and periodicity. The virus has already shown a penchant for wanting to inhabit a new host...us. When the case load starts to include clustering we should all sit up and take notice. And finally, the virus has shown itself to move through the human population with a fairly strong indication of periodicity. This should not surprise anyone. Over time a new/old strain will again infect birds. Scientists suspect the virus lingers in ice only to erupt again when all of the old antibodies to it have disappeared. As this new strain moves through the bird population, it occasionally has the ability to infect humans and other mammals. H5N1 seems to meet all the criteria. It has now spread to a large geographical base, can infect humans with greater ease and lies waiting in a part of the world we cannot view under a magnifying glass and, the number of patients has grown to the point that it is simply a matter of time before the odds have increased to the point where the dice will come up snake-eyes as it rearranges itself after each replication.

                  While the periodicity of pandemics is historically interesting, I do not believe there is any kind of causal link that would allow us to predict an upcoming pandemic based on time differentials between previous historic pandemics. We have too few sample data points and we don't have a coherent theory about how a pandemic could resurrect itself periodically over time as different strains (1918:H1N1, 1957:H2N2, 1968:H3N3).

                  For me, the length time that has passed since the last pandemic is irrelevant. However, Shannon has identified the critical elements that make H5N1 a contender for the strain that instigates the next pandemic.

                  Originally posted by Shannon
                  ......

                  The last factors that needs to addressed are the virus itself and periodicity. The virus has already shown a penchant for wanting to inhabit a new host...us. When the case load starts to include clustering we should all sit up and take notice. And finally, the virus has shown itself to move through the human population with a fairly strong indication of periodicity. This should not surprise anyone. Over time a new/old strain will again infect birds. Scientists suspect the virus lingers in ice only to erupt again when all of the old antibodies to it have disappeared. As this new strain moves through the bird population, it occasionally has the ability to infect humans and other mammals. H5N1 seems to meet all the criteria. It has now spread to a large geographical base, can infect humans with greater ease and lies waiting in a part of the world we cannot view under a magnifying glass and, the number of patients has grown to the point that it is simply a matter of time before the odds have increased to the point where the dice will come up snake-eyes as it rearranges itself after each replication.
                  Clusters of H5N1 cases are increasing, perhaps even exponentially. I posted graph in July (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...59&postcount=1) that suggests exponential growth of H5N1 human clusters. If this trend continues between now and 2011 (five years), more than 4,600 clusters of human cases could occur between now and then. Depending on (mutation, reassortment, etc.), any one of these clusters could produce an easily transmissible pandemic strain of H5N1. I would say that the potential of H5N1 being the next pandemic strain in five years is very, very high.

                  Personal and community preparations are absolutely called for, as is an intensive campaign for vaccine research, production, and distribution.
                  http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                    I really thought, back a year or so ago, that it would have started by now. It's taken longer than I expected. Ive read more about the 1918 and earlier pandemics, and see that a long lead up may well be the norm to a new human strain. So I limited myself to 75% because of the time frame.

                    Heck, it could be simmering somewhere as I type...

                    Or we could be taking this poll again in 2010!
                    Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,
                    Rains from the sky a meteoric shower
                    Of facts....They lie unquestioned, uncombined.
                    Wisdom enough to leech us of our ill
                    Is daily spun, but there exists no loom
                    To weave it into fabric..
                    Edna St. Vincent Millay "Huntsman, What Quarry"
                    All my posts to this forum are for fair use and educational purposes only.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                      Shannon, 100% doesn't make sense. It's in contradiction to most
                      experts and officials who often say : "no one knows whether
                      H5N1 will become pandemic" or "no one knows when the
                      next pandemic will come".
                      They don't say "no one except Shannon" , which they should when
                      you really were 100% sure.
                      OK, the group in the poll was 90%-100% so assume it's 95% or such.
                      But that's a bet of 1:20 ! You would bet $20 for a possible return
                      of only $21 when panflu comes, while losing all $20 when not ??
                      I estimate, that when there were bookmakes to accept bets on the
                      question of this poll then you would get maybe $100 in return
                      for your $20 in case panflu hits. This is just because most people
                      still think it's unlikely.
                      None of your arguments show that you have some secret information
                      or expertise in virology that makes you more competent for
                      an estimate than they are. You can't ignore their opinion.
                      So, I don't think you report here, what you really think.
                      Your vote looks connected to your agenda.
                      Same for the other people who voted 90-100%. We won't
                      expect that distribution with the peak at 90%-100% and few votes
                      for 80-90% and 70%-80% in a poll like this.
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                        Mingus, but you are aware what the experts in the papers write,
                        what they say in interviews, what your lab.-collegues say,
                        aren't you ? I can't imagine that a likely pandemic
                        in the next 6 months is common attitude in these circles.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                          Laidback Al, agreed. Except that 4600 clusters won't already mean a
                          likely pandemic. Compare it with other infectious diseases.
                          Also, the virus can almost disappear after an outbreak as in Vietnam.
                          In 3 years we might have vaccine or good cheap antivirals
                          or more knowledge which could stop the cluster-trend.
                          I heard this 3-years timeline sometimes.

                          I rarely see people here listing positive and negative factors
                          in a balanced way.
                          Most worrysome for me is still China.
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                            Originally posted by gsgs
                            Mingus, but you are aware what the experts in the papers write,
                            what they say in interviews, what your lab.-collegues say,
                            aren't you ? I can't imagine that a likely pandemic
                            in the next 6 months is common attitude in these circles.
                            gsgs can you please calm down ?

                            This is a poll asking for our personnal opinion wich have not to be "official statement of an expert".
                            I just asked a question, you don't even know what I did vote.
                            Shannon expressed her opinion with a nice developped text. You may not agree but she can express what she want... what's the problem, nobody asked her to correspond to statistical distribution in a poll...?

                            I rarely see people here listing positive and negative factors
                            in a balanced way.
                            Does-it mean you vote 50%, and that you don't know ?

                            Yes the truth is that nobody know, but the meant of this thread is not to hold the thuth but to express our feeling, not a expert idea... just that.

                            p.s. don,t take it bad

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Probability of H5N1 Pandemic within 5 years?

                              I think a little clarification might be in order here. Sorry about posting a magnum opus on the fly yesterday and not following through until now.

                              My biggest concern now is that the virus is primed for pandemic. Primed because of geographical spread, the number of human cases and, the lack of oversight by world health bodies. We also have an El Nino year coming up which may exacerbate the situation. Most worrying is the lack of supervision at the current hotspot. No epidemiologist from the WHO is currently on sight. The WHO is without a leader, the The UN leadership is in flux, and the CDC funding is in the process of being eviscerated. Just when we need every available eye focused on the next cluster, the worlds heath organizations are not paying attention. Does this mean that the virus will finally make those last changes to its coat to mean pandemic? No, I am not anthropomorphizing the virus. What it does mean is if the virus does make the necessary changes, no one will be alert to the danger until too late to intervene in a timely manner. The lack of supervision increases the potential for pandemic in my estimation. I hope I'm wrong.
                              Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                              Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                              Thank you,
                              Shannon Bennett

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X