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July San Paolo Sequence Released

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  • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

    Originally posted by dr kockosh View Post
    Dr Niman
    what are your thoughts on possible rate of spread of this mutation - artical says it's new info - but i suspect we have heard of this in limited way a few yrs ago - what are your thoughts on possability for Q136K to become aquired by swine flu virus and or to continue it's spread in seasonal H1N1 resulting in more widespread resistance to relenza- will it potentially spread in same way or as efficiently as H274Y

    first evidence of Relenza-resistant flu


    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=defaulttext vAlign=top>by Jared Reed
    Australian researchers have reported what they say is the first evidence of resistance to zanamivir (Relenza) in seasonal influenza A (H1N1) strains.
    Writing in the Journal of Virology,researchers from the Melbourne-based WHO Collaborating Centre for Influenza say their analysis of 391 samples of H1N1 influenza virus from the region found that nine (2.3&#37 had a markedly reduced zanamivir susceptibility.
    The H1N1 samples were collected from patients who were not being treated with the drug, and the resistance appeared to be conferred by a previously undescribed neuraminidase mutation known as Q136K. The mutation was unique to zanamivir and would not confer resistance to oseltamvir, they write.
    They note that there have been many reports of oseltamivir-resistant seasonal A (H1N1) viruses but until now there have been none relating to zanamivir.
    “The recent spread of oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1) viruses ... has shown that neuraminidase resistant viruses can spread rapidly and circulate widely in the global community,” they warn.
    And given that the neuraminidase resistance mutations have no apparent impact on viral fitness, “there is concern that one or both of the mutations may occur in highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses thereby reducing the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment of infected patients,” they say.
    “Both oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) have been stockpiled by many countries worldwide for use in the event of an influenza pandemic. It is therefore essential that the neuraminidase inhibitor sensitivity of A(H5N1) avian influenza viruses is constantly monitored so that the potential effectiveness of available treatments is known,” they conclude.

    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    3 August 2009
    The nine samples were collected between 2006-2008, so these are pretty much the same samples that have been at Genbank for a few years now. The resistance is likely circulating as a minor population, so its true level is hard to quantify, but it is still quite rare (I did commentaries on the change in the 2008/2009 season because of a couple of US isolates (I believe they were in PA and NJ) and the change will likely be missed in isolates grown in chicken eggs.

    Comment


    • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

      Hello Dr. Niman,

      I was wondering what your opinions are regarding the teenage girl that died mid-flight while headed back to Sao Paolo after visiting DisneyWorld. She was tested negative for swine flu, but given Tamiflu and went into cardiac arrest in-transit. Do you feel that, what sounds like essentially a quick decline and death, could be related to the polymorphisms you mentioned?



      Gennie

      Comment


      • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

        Originally posted by niman View Post
        Most of the information has already been posted. The only pandemic sequence with V252M is the sequence from the first fatal case in Sao Paulo. I believe that the only sequence from a fatal case in Brazil is the Sao Paulo case. The latest update from Brazil shows that the largest number of deaths (32) are in the Sao Paulo area. The second highest number of deaths is in the region just to the south, Rio Grande de sol, with 21 deaths. Since the total for all of Brazil is 61, the fact that 53 are in Sao Paulo or the adjacent region to the south (and almost all have been reported in the past few weeks) is significant.
        See map

        http://flutracker.rhizalabs.com/flu/....921875&zoom=6
        ~ So what I hear you saying, is that this 11 year old girl, is the only victim (so far) from whom this V252M change has been found, but that sequences collected from other novel H1N1 victims from her area have not yet been released.

        Therefore, the fact that 53 out of 61 fatalities in Brazil have occurred in the region where this new sequence (that closer matches the 1918 virus) was discovered, is significant.

        So these could be signs that this virus is changing quicker than we can detect these changes?
        Old Mother Goose
        when she wanted to wander,
        would fly through the air
        on a very fine Gander...

        Comment


        • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

          Originally posted by GennieF View Post
          Hello Dr. Niman,

          I was wondering what your opinions are regarding the teenage girl that died mid-flight while headed back to Sao Paolo after visiting DisneyWorld. She was tested negative for swine flu, but given Tamiflu and went into cardiac arrest in-transit. Do you feel that, what sounds like essentially a quick decline and death, could be related to the polymorphisms you mentioned?



          Gennie
          Many of the accounts of flu deaths sound much like the case above. Patients appear to recover and then take a sudden turn. This description was given for the early cases in Mexico and many in the US also. There is also a long history of false negatives (which has also been true for H1N1).

          I think the patient was H1N1 infected and the designation has been represented as such on the map of Sao Paulo

          Comment


          • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

            Originally posted by littlebird View Post
            ~ So what I hear you saying, is that this 11 year old girl, is the only victim (so far) from whom this V252M change has been found, but that sequences collected from other novel H1N1 victims from her area have not yet been released.

            Therefore, the fact that 53 out of 61 fatalities in Brazil have occurred in the region where this new sequence (that closer matches the 1918 virus) was discovered, is significant.

            So these could be signs that this virus is changing quicker than we can detect these changes?
            There is a lag of about a month and sequences that are quickly released. The researchers at Columbia University have said that they will release more sequences this week. I suspect the same will happen for sao paulo. The jump in deaths in Brazil and Argentina happened very suddenly.

            Comment


            • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

              Dr. Niman,

              Do you feel that she could have been contagious the entire time she was in the United States and spread it to those at Disney World? Or that she may have picked up the virus while there? I am not knowledgeable about viruses, I have just been following the news a lot lately and do not like what I am seeing, so I'm sorry if this is a somewhat stupid question. If she was contagious the entire time she was in the United States, it sounds like that could be a very bad thing.

              Gennie

              Comment


              • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                littlebird said:

                ~ So what I hear you saying, is that this 11 year old girl, is the only victim (so far) from whom this V252M change has been found, but that sequences collected from other novel H1N1 victims from her area have not yet been released.

                Therefore, the fact that 53 out of 61 fatalities in Brazil have occurred in the region where this new sequence (that closer matches the 1918 virus) was discovered, is significant.

                So these could be signs that this virus is changing quicker than we can detect these changes?
                littlebird, you have built an hypothesis on a lack of information. The fact that we lack information about other victims in the area does not lead to the logical conclusion that they all share V252M in common, or that V252M is important in causing increased morbitity or mortality. It may be a curious coincidence that they come from the same geographical area. It has been made clear, in this thread, that we have no idea what the clinical significance of this change has for patient outcomes.

                Time will tell...

                Snick

                Comment


                • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                  Originally posted by Snicklefritz View Post
                  littlebird said:



                  littlebird, you have built an hypothesis on a lack of information. The fact that we lack information about other victims in the area does not lead to the logical conclusion that they all share V252M in common, or that V252M is important in causing increased morbitity or mortality. It may be a curious coincidence that they come from the same geographical area. It has been made clear, in this thread, that we have no idea what the clinical significance of this change has for patient outcomes.

                  Time will tell...

                  Snick
                  Speaking of time telling, 11 out of 11 PA sequences from Argentina have the same change (C1263T). On the surface the change looks innocuous, but 11 out of 11 is a pretty striking number (and the donor sequence contributed two additional polymorphisms to one of the 11 isolates).

                  The H1N1 knows what it is doing, even if the sequencers don't.

                  Comment


                  • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                    Niman said:

                    ...The H1N1 knows what it is doing, even if the sequencers don't.
                    That's a bunch of clap-trap anthropomorphism that is disappointing for a scientist of your stature.

                    I am an advocate of Complexity Theory which proposes emergent properties, and self-organzation, but implying that this virus has some sort of intelligent foresight, or some sort of a plan (for what, and to what end?) is in the same vein as the pet dog owners I have to "de-mystify" on a regular basis.

                    The humble opinion of a non-scientist....

                    Snick

                    Comment


                    • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                      Originally posted by Snicklefritz View Post
                      [B] implying that this virus has some sort of intelligent foresight, or some sort of a plan (for what, and to what end?)
                      Snick
                      Go forth and multiply I'd guess is the plan unfortunately :-(

                      Comment


                      • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                        Snick...

                        I'm convinced that both DNA and RNA are "programmed" to make conditional responses, at the least. Reading about the human DNA response to carbohydrate restriction and the "logic" of methylation and histimines in epigentics provides further evidence.

                        I've watched programmed artificial intelligence at work for 42 years now. I have no reason to believe that nature cannot do the same. I started programming computers 43 years ago....using assemblers and machine language languages. I regularly read data in binary and worked everyday with "logic" built on something as simple as "1" or "0." I think of viral actions as a computer program and it makes perfect sense.

                        I certainly don't take Henry's comments literally, but I have no reason to dismiss the comments of someone with his credentials.

                        .
                        "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

                        Comment


                        • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                          Dawkins has some interesting thoughts around this topic ......

                          Latest news coverage, email, free stock quotes, live scores and video are just the beginning. Discover more every day at Yahoo!

                          Comment


                          • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                            Originally posted by Snicklefritz View Post
                            littlebird said:



                            littlebird, you have built an hypothesis on a lack of information. The fact that we lack information about other victims in the area does not lead to the logical conclusion that they all share V252M in common, or that V252M is important in causing increased morbitity or mortality. It may be a curious coincidence that they come from the same geographical area. It has been made clear, in this thread, that we have no idea what the clinical significance of this change has for patient outcomes.

                            Time will tell...

                            Snick
                            Snick, I believe you are putting words in my mouth. I haven't concluded that all of the victims share V252M in common. I didn't say that, YOU said that. But in reality it could be a possibility, nobody can deny that. Anyway, am I not allowed to form a hypothesis? It's just an educated guess... not a conclusion. The conclusion will reveal itself later.

                            I'm just trying to line up the facts correctly in my mind that Dr. Niman was reporting. I'm not speculating about the increased virulence of any change in the sequence...

                            I just find those facts intriguing. That's my perogative as a free thinker. In my experience, if I only relied on hard cold scientific evidence (forgive me Dr. Niman) to survive in the wild, I'd probably be dead. I rely on my intuition, as well as fact.

                            I found what he said to be alarming, and profound. That doesn't mean squat. It's just what I think, and I'm free to express that.

                            I am not a virologist. So when I want to know about viruses, I try to find credible people who ring true to me, and who do not seem biased in their approach.

                            That's what brought me to the Recombinomics website over a year ago, and then to here.

                            Doesn't everyone build an hypothesis on a certain lack of information? If we had all the answers we wouldn't need to question anything would we?
                            Old Mother Goose
                            when she wanted to wander,
                            would fly through the air
                            on a very fine Gander...

                            Comment


                            • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                              Originally posted by Snicklefritz View Post
                              Niman said:



                              That's a bunch of clap-trap anthropomorphism that is disappointing for a scientist of your stature.

                              I am an advocate of Complexity Theory which proposes emergent properties, and self-organzation, but implying that this virus has some sort of intelligent foresight, or some sort of a plan (for what, and to what end?) is in the same vein as the pet dog owners I have to "de-mystify" on a regular basis.

                              The humble opinion of a non-scientist....

                              Snick
                              Influenza has survived for eons, even though hosts mount strong immune responses. Flu KNOWS what it is doing, and it does it VERY well.

                              Comment


                              • Re: July San Paolo Sequence Released

                                littlebird said:

                                Doesn't everyone build an hypothesis on a certain lack of information? If we had all the answers we wouldn't need to question anything would we?
                                And yet, you react in multiple paragraphs because I question your Dr. Niman? Nobody has all the answers.

                                Alaska Denise said:

                                I certainly don't take Henry's comments literally, but I have no reason to dismiss the comments of someone with his credentials.
                                AD, I too have a background in computers. So, I take your remarks advisedly. But, I am not concerned about the members of this forum who have been here for a long time. They are knowledgeable about influenza, and about Dr. Niman. I am concerned about those who are 'lurking', looking for something solid to hand their hat on.

                                It seems to me that speaking of a virus as some form of intelligent life, in the common understanding of that term, which implies intentionality, is likely to be very misleading. And, that is where I join the discussion. I'm just trying to moderate the discussion for everyone involvele.

                                In my estimation, hogweed has it about right. But, I am intrigued by Dawkins and the whole epigenetics thing.

                                Comment

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