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Source: https://www.lanacion.com.py/pais/202...-en-setiembre/
Paraguay could reach more than 20 thousand deaths from COVID-19 in September
Country
May 28, 2021 7:37 AM
So far, Paraguay is the second country with the most deaths per million inhabitants. It is estimated that in the next 21 days more than 54,000 new infections and 2,000 new deaths will be registered. Taking into account the weekly report of COVID-19 in Paraguay issued by the General Directorate of Health Surveillance (DGVS), it is said that the daily average of new infected with the virus is 2,668, with a probable value of 3,190 in 95% of the confidence interval, significantly higher than the previous weeks.
In this sense, a positive percentage change of 11% is reported with respect to a moving average of previous weeks, which indicates an increasing trend of the epidemic curve.
The doubling time for total confirmed COVID-19 cases is 90.51 days. If the current rhythm is maintained, projections indicate that as of June 12, it could reach 383,941 reported cases, approximately 54,523 new infections in the next 21 days, a daily average of 2,600 cases, representing an increase compared to the previous estimate.
Regarding the incidence of COVID-19, Asunción (1,199.0) is the city with the most new cases in the last two weeks per one hundred thousand inhabitants; It is followed by the departments Central (633.6), Cordillera (549.4), Misiones (502.3), Pdte. Hayes (498.7), Itapúa (462.8), Paraguarí (454.3), Ñeembucú (451.3), Guairá (449.1), Caazapá (297.8), Alto Paraguay (296.3), Concepción (296), Caaguazú (290.5), Amambay (211.3), Boquerón (211.1), Canindeyú (203), Alto Paraná (188) and San Pedro (185).
Some 15 departments show a positive percentage change in new cases compared to the last week, with the exception of Cordillera (-22%), Paraguarí (-0.7%) and Caazapá (-9.2%), with Boquerón standing out with an increase high (+ 116.7%).
Hospitalizations and transferability rate
Regarding hospitalizations in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), these show a maximum of 584 patients in one day. General hospitalizations have a new maximum of 2,971 patients reported in a single day.
The transmissibility (Rt), which determines the average number of infections per reported infected, is 1.04. Based on the new cases registered, the evolution of transmissibility during the week indicates an increasing trend in the epidemic curve. All departments show a transmissibility greater than or equal to 1, indicating a plateau or rising epidemic curve.
While the average daily positivity rate is not significantly different from 50%, which means that one out of every two laboratory tests is positive, reported based on an average of 6,123 samples processed daily.
Projection of deceased
As confirmed by the Our World in Data platform, Paraguay reports a growing trend in the specific mortality rate (average daily deaths per million), ranking second below Uruguay. For its part, the Worldometers platform classified the country as the second with the most deaths per million inhabitants in the last seven days, surpassed by Uruguay, which occupies the first place.
They point out that the current projection provided on the platform of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based on SEIR-type models and the recent trend, warns of the potential for the country to reach some 20,474 deaths from COVID-19 in the month of September.
Based on the current trend, said platform anticipates that the most critical period will be between the months of June and July. These projections anticipate a demand for hospital resources well above the current demonstrated capacity.
Also, at the end of epidemiological week 20, in Paraguay the daily average of deaths per million inhabitants is 13.9 cases, reporting a significant increase compared to the previous two weeks. The doubling time of the total deaths is 64.24 days, showing a slowdown in relation to the previous weeks.
Best and worst scenario
Our projections adjusted to an exponential model (worst case scenario) and the trend of the last 21 days with better statistical support (AICc = -166.64, R ^ 2 = 0.99) indicate that as of June 12, 10,255 deaths could be reached, this implies 2,000 new deaths in the next 21 days, a daily average of 13.2 daily deaths per million inhabitants.
In contrast, the projections adjusted to a best scenario, of sub-exponential growth and the trend of the last 21 days (AICc = -166.63, R ^ 2 = 0.99) indicate that as of June 12, 9,918 deaths could be reached, this implies 1,600 deaths new in the next 21 days, a daily average of 10.5 daily deaths per million inhabitants.
Paraguay could reach more than 20 thousand deaths from COVID-19 in September
Country
May 28, 2021 7:37 AM
So far, Paraguay is the second country with the most deaths per million inhabitants. It is estimated that in the next 21 days more than 54,000 new infections and 2,000 new deaths will be registered. Taking into account the weekly report of COVID-19 in Paraguay issued by the General Directorate of Health Surveillance (DGVS), it is said that the daily average of new infected with the virus is 2,668, with a probable value of 3,190 in 95% of the confidence interval, significantly higher than the previous weeks.
In this sense, a positive percentage change of 11% is reported with respect to a moving average of previous weeks, which indicates an increasing trend of the epidemic curve.
The doubling time for total confirmed COVID-19 cases is 90.51 days. If the current rhythm is maintained, projections indicate that as of June 12, it could reach 383,941 reported cases, approximately 54,523 new infections in the next 21 days, a daily average of 2,600 cases, representing an increase compared to the previous estimate.
Regarding the incidence of COVID-19, Asunción (1,199.0) is the city with the most new cases in the last two weeks per one hundred thousand inhabitants; It is followed by the departments Central (633.6), Cordillera (549.4), Misiones (502.3), Pdte. Hayes (498.7), Itapúa (462.8), Paraguarí (454.3), Ñeembucú (451.3), Guairá (449.1), Caazapá (297.8), Alto Paraguay (296.3), Concepción (296), Caaguazú (290.5), Amambay (211.3), Boquerón (211.1), Canindeyú (203), Alto Paraná (188) and San Pedro (185).
Some 15 departments show a positive percentage change in new cases compared to the last week, with the exception of Cordillera (-22%), Paraguarí (-0.7%) and Caazapá (-9.2%), with Boquerón standing out with an increase high (+ 116.7%).
Hospitalizations and transferability rate
Regarding hospitalizations in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), these show a maximum of 584 patients in one day. General hospitalizations have a new maximum of 2,971 patients reported in a single day.
The transmissibility (Rt), which determines the average number of infections per reported infected, is 1.04. Based on the new cases registered, the evolution of transmissibility during the week indicates an increasing trend in the epidemic curve. All departments show a transmissibility greater than or equal to 1, indicating a plateau or rising epidemic curve.
While the average daily positivity rate is not significantly different from 50%, which means that one out of every two laboratory tests is positive, reported based on an average of 6,123 samples processed daily.
Projection of deceased
As confirmed by the Our World in Data platform, Paraguay reports a growing trend in the specific mortality rate (average daily deaths per million), ranking second below Uruguay. For its part, the Worldometers platform classified the country as the second with the most deaths per million inhabitants in the last seven days, surpassed by Uruguay, which occupies the first place.
They point out that the current projection provided on the platform of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based on SEIR-type models and the recent trend, warns of the potential for the country to reach some 20,474 deaths from COVID-19 in the month of September.
Based on the current trend, said platform anticipates that the most critical period will be between the months of June and July. These projections anticipate a demand for hospital resources well above the current demonstrated capacity.
Also, at the end of epidemiological week 20, in Paraguay the daily average of deaths per million inhabitants is 13.9 cases, reporting a significant increase compared to the previous two weeks. The doubling time of the total deaths is 64.24 days, showing a slowdown in relation to the previous weeks.
Best and worst scenario
Our projections adjusted to an exponential model (worst case scenario) and the trend of the last 21 days with better statistical support (AICc = -166.64, R ^ 2 = 0.99) indicate that as of June 12, 10,255 deaths could be reached, this implies 2,000 new deaths in the next 21 days, a daily average of 13.2 daily deaths per million inhabitants.
In contrast, the projections adjusted to a best scenario, of sub-exponential growth and the trend of the last 21 days (AICc = -166.63, R ^ 2 = 0.99) indicate that as of June 12, 9,918 deaths could be reached, this implies 1,600 deaths new in the next 21 days, a daily average of 10.5 daily deaths per million inhabitants.