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  • Europe hit by deadly flu virus

    Europe hit by deadly flu virus
    Los Angeles (AFP) – Kevin Na fired a final-round 66 at Colonial Country Club on Sunday to win the US PGA Tour’s Charles Schwab Challenge by

    This year's flu season has officially hit Europe, a body which monitors the virus said.

    The European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) confirmed there is an increase in "activity" of influenza reported in five countries.

    They are Greece, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Spain and Switzerland - and this has been accompanied by increases in laboratory-confirmed cases.

    England and Scotland were also included in a list of countries where the majority of flu detections in Europe were reported.

    During a season, or epidemic, the death toll from flu and its complications is up to half a million people annually worldwide.

    And so far, this year's cases have primarily been of the H3 strain of influenza A, said by the body to be more virulent than influenza B, which dominated in Europe last year.

    Studies have found there is "significantly higher mortality" associated with the A H3 virus compared with the B virus, the EISS said.

    The EISS said the increase in activity signals the start of the influenza season and based on previous data, influenza activity is expected to increase in many more countries over the coming weeks.

    Confirmed cases from population-based samples for the whole of Europe have risen to more than 350 a week in week two of 2007.

    They are expected to peak at between 1,000 and 2,000 as the acute respiratory illness sweeps through more countries.

  • #2
    Re: Europe hit by deadly flu virus

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    I haven't been sleeping well and am a bit groggy from conjugating Polish verbs so I am hoping one of the more nimble minds on this board can answer this question.

    Is the fairly virulent human flu (H3N2?) that is currently sweeping Europe of a type that can swap genetic matter with our little friend H5N1? And, if so, is it likely or not so likely that one or the other would acquire the ability to become an HP pandemic candidate. My foggy brain says yes but when I try to find the evidence it starts regurgitating the 13 past tense forms of byc (God help me).

    I realize I am asking for a bit of speculation but it is really the science I am interested in.

    Any help would be appreciated.

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    • #3
      Re: Europe hit by deadly flu virus

      Originally posted by Snowy Owl View Post

      Confirmed cases from population-based samples for the whole of Europe have risen to more than 350 a week in week two of 2007.

      They are expected to peak at between 1,000 and 2,000 as the acute respiratory illness sweeps through more countries.
      I'd say the "peak" has been far exceeded based upon today's reports from Moldova and Ukraine. It appears that Moldova is not a participant in European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) .

      Sorry, bharry. I'm going to leave your questions to someone more qualified.
      "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

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      • #4
        Re: Europe hit by deadly flu virus

        Bharry

        Welcome to flutrackers.

        I am no expert but to try and answer your questions.

        Can H3N2 swap genetic material with H5N1 ? yes.

        Is it likely to make it go pandemic ? a qualified no. The more genetic material, especially if it has a track record of being human adapted like H3N2, that is available for genetic mixing the greater the chance of a change in the H5N1 sequence and so higher probability of it reaching efficient human to human transmission. That said it not as simple as mix human seasonal flu with H5N1 and you get a pandemic, it is not known exactly what changes are needed to make H5N1 a pandemic virus it is all probabilities.

        I wrote a general introduction to H5N1 including some of the biology & genetics which can be found here http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5757
        if you would like to read the relevant sections and post back with any outstanding queries or PM me I will try and answer them.

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        • #5
          Re: Europe hit by deadly flu virus

          Thanks much. I greatly appreciated the straightforward and informative response.

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