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  • Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems...0/s1765033.htm

    Last Update: Sunday, October 15, 2006. 7:00am (AEST)

    The doctor who diagnosed the first case of SARS in Toronto has urged Australian governments to ensure front-line health workers are protected in the event of a flu pandemic.

    Tom Stewart from Toronto University has addressed the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society's conference in Hobart.

    Dr Stewart says seven of his colleagues became ill during the SARS outbreak in 2002, and three succumbed to the virus.

    He says despite the risks, doctors and nurses rejected pleas from their families to stay at home.

    "There was a lot of stress on my colleagues, and a lot of after-effects of that stress," he said.

    "That could be better more improved by preparation, training, teaching, a plan on how we're going to deal with a surge of critically ill patients, where we're going to put them, who's in charge."

    Hundreds of medical experts are discussing the scenario of an Avian influenza pandemic at the Hobart conference.

    They say bird flu has already been detected in 53 countries, and if the virus spreads to Australia the predicted mortality rate is 35 per cent.

    Professor Marcus Skinner, from Tasmania's North West Regional Hospital, says existing preparedness plans do not anticipate the rapid erosion of front-line hospital staff in the event of an avian flu outbreak.

    "We need to be able to identify early these patients, so that they can go down the path of appropriate isolation and management and that at the same time we can protect our scarce staffing resources, particularly in rural areas," he said.

    The conference concludes today.

    .

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    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

  • #2
    Re: Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

    Originally posted by AlaskaDenise
    if the virus spreads to Australia the predicted mortality rate is 35 per cent.
    Are they referring to a CAR of 35% (often expressed in the 30-40% range) ?
    Or is this one of the rare occasions in which a 35% CFR has been explicitly spelt out?
    RH

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    • #3
      Re: Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

      I wondered about that also. I'd like to assume they meant % of population infected.

      .
      "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

        I also notice the title of Assoc Prof Marcus Skinner's paper -
        "The effect of a pandemic on a rural ICU? Or how prepared are you if 40% of your staff don't turn up to work?"

        RH

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        • #5
          Re: Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

          So, perhaps they're saying that with reduced resources in rural areas, the mortality rate will be higher? I can understand that, as it would be the situation where I live.

          .
          "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

            From 'All ports to be closed if bird flu strikes' (August 21, 2005)
            http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/...?oneclick=true

            "[Australian Health Minister] Mr Abbott has predicted 13,000 Australian deaths with more than 2 million others affected if there was a pandemic of a strain of the disease." That's a 10% CAR.

            "The impact would be like that of the flu pandemic of 1918-19, which killed more than 20 million worldwide and 11,500 in Australia."

            Err....so are they're saying that the 1918-19 pandemic caused 11,500 fatalities in Aust, but an imminent pandemic would result in 13,000 deaths? ...and that is despite the population base having recorded a 5-fold or so increase since 1919 and H5N1 being substantially more virulent than H1N1.

            As Goju said at the Safe America Conference NY, they're not facing reality!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Conference told of bird flu risk for health workers

              From Feb 16, 2006
              http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/...890807089.html

              Alternative estimates suggest "up to 214,000".

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