Re: New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza outbreak
Unfortunately, we can see here how discutable are the countries official pandemic flu plans if they are based on the "usualy taken" 2,5% CFR, at the same time stamping of scaremongering some others projections of 10-30% or more CFR in an serious novel flu pandemic.
The situation is similar:
- an relatively naive population to the virus (childs and many seniors)
- no vaccines applyed before the contagion
- additional infections need antib. also
- and assuming that in a serious pandemic what are now seasonal curable form infected numbers, than could be fatalities
and more, it would be much more worst for the other countries because:
- this very distant islands have NOT airports, trains/..., and large ports, so they are pretty more isolated than the majority of places would be, and stil they catch the virus from some carrier.
That means that there would be no real possibility to miss an serious novel pandemic virus in modern overcrowded cities, if not beeing ducked in an private shelter for months (or until some matched vacc. come) ...
But stil, the supposed esigue pandemic CFR remains in the plans and preparations ...
P.S. Couldn't be finaly created a critical sci. mass to push an new decision for additional vaccine strain changings at least for the northern 09/10 hemisfere in the light of the cited facts about the resistance (post #15, and prior)
Unfortunately, we can see here how discutable are the countries official pandemic flu plans if they are based on the "usualy taken" 2,5% CFR, at the same time stamping of scaremongering some others projections of 10-30% or more CFR in an serious novel flu pandemic.
The situation is similar:
- an relatively naive population to the virus (childs and many seniors)
- no vaccines applyed before the contagion
- additional infections need antib. also
- and assuming that in a serious pandemic what are now seasonal curable form infected numbers, than could be fatalities
and more, it would be much more worst for the other countries because:
- this very distant islands have NOT airports, trains/..., and large ports, so they are pretty more isolated than the majority of places would be, and stil they catch the virus from some carrier.
That means that there would be no real possibility to miss an serious novel pandemic virus in modern overcrowded cities, if not beeing ducked in an private shelter for months (or until some matched vacc. come) ...
But stil, the supposed esigue pandemic CFR remains in the plans and preparations ...
P.S. Couldn't be finaly created a critical sci. mass to push an new decision for additional vaccine strain changings at least for the northern 09/10 hemisfere in the light of the cited facts about the resistance (post #15, and prior)
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