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New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza-like outbreak

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  • #16
    Re: New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza outbreak

    Unfortunately, we can see here how discutable are the countries official pandemic flu plans if they are based on the "usualy taken" 2,5% CFR, at the same time stamping of scaremongering some others projections of 10-30% or more CFR in an serious novel flu pandemic.

    The situation is similar:
    - an relatively naive population to the virus (childs and many seniors)
    - no vaccines applyed before the contagion
    - additional infections need antib. also
    - and assuming that in a serious pandemic what are now seasonal curable form infected numbers, than could be fatalities

    and more, it would be much more worst for the other countries because:
    - this very distant islands have NOT airports, trains/..., and large ports, so they are pretty more isolated than the majority of places would be, and stil they catch the virus from some carrier.

    That means that there would be no real possibility to miss an serious novel pandemic virus in modern overcrowded cities, if not beeing ducked in an private shelter for months (or until some matched vacc. come) ...

    But stil, the supposed esigue pandemic CFR remains in the plans and preparations ...

    P.S. Couldn't be finaly created a critical sci. mass to push an new decision for additional vaccine strain changings at least for the northern 09/10 hemisfere in the light of the cited facts about the resistance (post #15, and prior)

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    • #17
      Re: New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza outbreak

      Commentary

      Flu Epidemic in Pacific Atolls Raises Concerns

      Recombinomics Commentary 13:04
      April 1, 2009

      A small group of New Zealand health officials are on their way to Tokelau to help the tiny island nation cope with its worst health crisis in 30 years.

      About 10 per cent of the 1,500 people living there are reporting flu-like symptoms.

      All public gatherings have been cancelled and schools closed.

      "Given that there are a couple of nurses on each of the atolls and that's the main health work force, supported by some hospital aid and - on two of the atolls, a doctor - they're quite stretched," she said.

      The above comments describe a flu outbreak in Tokelau (see map). The small island community has no airfield, roads, or automobiles, so treatment and updates are delayed. The influenza strain has not been determined, but vaccines and anti-virals are in route and expected to arrive on Sunday.

      The flu season is beginning in the southern hemisphere, and this outbreak may signal the severity of the upcoming season, although this population is somewhat immunologically naïve and the spread may not signal a trend for a more diverse population.

      However, there were widespread outbreaks which led to school closings in Japan and South Korea, which were linked to Tamiflu resistant H1N1. Moreover, reports from Japan and Taiwan suggested that the H1N1 was vaccine resistant. The dominant H1N1 in these countries had acquired A193T as one of the changes at positions 187, 189, and 196 (G189A). The H1N1 target for the southern hemisphere is unchanged, so vaccine resistant H1N1 strains would be resistant to the vaccine in route to Tokelau. The current target, A/Brisbane/59/2007, was isolated prior to acquisitions on HA and NA that are associated with the fixing of H274Y, so the ability to halt the worldwide dominance of Tamiflu resistant H1N1 will be limited this season in southern hemisphere as well as next season in the northern hemisphere, since the H1N1 target for then 2009/2010 season is also unchanged.

      .
      "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza outbreak



        Flu hits tiny island hard

        Published: 7:47PM Thursday April 02, 2009

        Source: AAP

        ONE News

        A flu epidemic which has swept through the tiny, isolated Pacific island of Tokelau has been contained.

        One in 10 of the islanders have been struck down by the illness and New Zealand medics are en route to the small archipelago to treat the ill and administer influenza vaccines to all 1,450 residents.

        But the journey is a long one as Tokelau has no airport, seaport or roads, and it is 26 hours by boat from its nearest neighbour, Samoa.

        "The nurse and her assistant are on the boat now but it will take some time," said Tokelau's director of health, Lee Pearce, who is based in Samoa.

        "But in the meantime we can say it's well-controlled and contained, and the number of new cases reported everyday is dropping quickly."

        Tokelau, a territory of New Zealand, is made up of three coral atolls which occupy just 12 square kilometres of land.

        Islanders first reported the outbreak in mid-March and more than 150 people have been affected so far. Dr Pearce said most of the ill were children, and four had been hospitalised.

        "That is particularly worrying as children and elderly are the most vulnerable to severe illness," she said.

        She said the country's extreme isolation and small population meant the flu had hit locals particularly hard.

        "When this type of outbreak happens in countries like Australia the numbers just get absorbed by the larger population, but when there are so few people and immunity is so low it is really felt," Pearce said.

        Experts say it is very unlikely the virus originated from the island, and was presumably carried there by a visitor.

        The population would be vaccinated annually from this year on, to ensure such an outbreak is not repeated, the director said.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza outbreak

          Wellington Hospital nurse consultant Bronwen Markham is back on dry land after agreeing to be part of a Ministry of Health response to a suspected influenza outbreak threatened to overwhelm health services on the isolated atolls.


          A swift response was required with nearly 150 people reported sick out of a population of 1500 people on the three atolls, more than 500km north of Samoa, separated by 60km of open ocean, which make up New Zealand's last remaining dependent territory.


          With about 10% of the population reported ill, Tokelau's acting Director-General of Health, Lee Pearce (on leave from her job as Capital and Coast's Pacific health services manager), sought urgent assistance from the New Zealand Health Ministry on March 29. Bronwen took her partner Carl Reller, an environmental manager at the NZ Transport Authority who is also a medical technologist, along for support and to help educate local nurses on using the rapid test kits.


          After a flight to the Samoan capital of Apia, where they met Lee Pearce and World Health Organisation doctor Jacob Kool, they caught the fortnightly sailing to Tokelau. “Everyone spreads their mattresses on deck like in a marae and looks after each other as best they can.” After 45 hours in horrific sea swells they finally arrived at Fakaofo late on April 1.



          After reaching Atafu they met with the Taupulega who granted permission at a formal meeting to proceed with the work of vaccinating and screening. The team then headed to the hospital to set up a base. Nurses were trained in vaccination technique then, accompanied by members of the team proceeded to vaccinate the community going from house-to-house. Approximately 200 of the 350 doses were administered on the first day, which was a majority of the population on Atafu.



          Local health services had acted swiftly to limit the spread of the disease. The school had been closed, public gatherings banned, sick people advised to stay home and the message of hand washing reinforced.
          "We were feted like heroes - people were so touched that New Zealand was at last acknowledging they existed. They are incredibly generous people; we were overfed like there was no tomorrow."


          The team spent nine days in Tokelau, testing and treating the sick, vaccinating the population and training nurses. The nature of the illness remains a mystery.

          Tests showed negative results for influenza Type A and B and instead results show it to be an 'influenza-like illness' with similar symptoms to the flu but of shorter duration and not as dangerous.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: New Zealand assisting with managing Tokelau influenza outbreak

            “Dr Kool has sent samples to Australia but it looks like an ‘influenza-like illness’, i.e., similar symptoms to the flu but of shorter duration and mercifully not as dangerous.

            Comment

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