Announcement

**Sally Furniss** · March 15, 2006, 02:35 PM

Re: Massive publicity campaign.

An advertising blitz begins this week urging New Zealanders to take precautions against bird flu. Are we taking a `She'll be right' attitude to a virus that could spell disaster?

The human death toll is rising, and each week more countries report outbreaks in wild and domestic birds as the virulent flu sweeps the world.
Despite growing international alarm, New Zealanders are relatively complacent when it comes to the threat of an influenza pandemic.
We've heard the warnings, but most of us have done nothing to prepare for a disease that could cause tens of thousands of deaths here.
A survey commissioned by the Health Ministry found only a third of 1000 people contacted had taken precautions, like preparing an emergency kit of food, water and medicine.
The rest ? 67 per cent ? had made no move to ready themselves or their families for a pandemic that could hit 40 per cent of the population and kill up to 33,000 New Zealanders.
The Health Ministry is trying to combat this apparent "she'll be right" attitude. From Monday, 1.4 million households will receive a brochure on how to prepare and a fridge magnet with an 0800 information line number. A $1 million advertising campaign on radio and television starts this week.
These efforts are designed to convince the public to put together an emergency kit and make a plan. If the outbreak is as severe as feared, hospitals and the wider health system will not be able to cope with the number of patients and many will have to fend for themselves at home.
For many, a brochure and a fridge magnet will not change their view that the flu threat is distant and overhyped like the Millennium bug and Sars. But Christchurch virologist Lance Jennings, who attended a meeting of the Asia Pacific Advisory Committee on Influenza this month, says this is ignoring clear warning signs.
"I think you've just got to look at history. Since the 16th century on average we've had three human influenza pandemics every 100 years. There were three last century and it's been 38 years since the last one."

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed about 50 million people worldwide came from an avian virus that adapted to humans. Dr Jennings says this pattern could repeat and the H5N1 avian strain is a growing threat as it builds around the world.
It is moving from Asia into Africa and European countries which have good biosecurity for their domestic poultry flocks, and affecting animals and birds. There are fears in Germany about the death of a cat.
He describes H5N1 as "volatile" and "promiscuous", exactly the sort of temperament that could mutate to let it spread from person to person ? the trigger point for a pandemic.
So far 97 people have died from bird flu since 2003 ? mostly people in close contact with infected birds.
The fear is that as human exposure to H5N1 increases, so does the chance of someone with normal flu being infected by it, and a new human-to-human virus emerging. Air travel means it could arrive in New Zealand within days.
If the worst does happen, can we be sure that the Government has done enough?
The Health Ministry has been co ordinating planning across a range of departments.
It has spent $26 million stockpiling 855,000 courses of the anti-viral drug Tamiflu ? enough for 21 per cent of the population ? and this is stored at several secret and secure locations.
Drug funder Pharmac is securing extra supplies of antibiotics to cope with secondary infections associated with flu and it is considering arranging for additional stocks of essential personal medicines such as warfarin and insulin in case deliveries are disrupted during a pandemic. New Zealand has an agreement with Australian company CSL for a guaranteed supply of vaccine, but it will not be available for several months after a new flu strain appears.
There is no doubt that if a pandemic does hit it will be devastating.
The Health Ministry says the peak death toll could be 10,000 a week. Funeral directors are already making special arrangements. Funerals are likely to be postponed, borders closed and public gatherings banned.

New laws allowing for quarantining of suspected flu cases and giving emergency powers to key decision-makers during a pandemic are expected to be presented to Parliament within weeks.
But despite these measures a report by Parliament's health select committee raised serious concerns about the Government's preparedness. Our national disease surveillance system was "obviously insufficient" and district health boards lacked direction.
Health Minister Pete Hodgson has rejected some of these claims, saying the committee's concerns were based on out-of-date information. But he acknowledges that there are gaps in New Zealand's planning that will take some time to address.
"We're among the best planned countries in the world. But our plan is not yet up to scratch. We are going to need another few months."
Increasing public awareness, making sure DHBs carry out exercises to test their plans, and boosting supplies of equipment such as masks on sale to the public, were some areas he wanted to see targeted early before the middle of this year.
He also wants the level of public preparation to increase. "If more people have laid in rice and water and panadol and whatever else it is they might need, then the chances of there being a rush on supplies at the time (of a pandemic) is reduced."
But, he admits, even his household organised an emergency kit only recently.

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Announcement

Massive publicity campaign.

Massive publicity campaign.

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