Exercise to test pandemic plans
By KAMALA HAYMAN - The Press | Saturday, 24 February 2007
An exercise to test the country's preparedness for a deadly flu pandemic will be the largest of its kind, involving almost every government department.
In May, Exercise Cruickshank will ask authorities to cope with a mock influenza pandemic sweeping the nation, killing more than 30,000 people.
In a draft scenario, published on the Health Ministry's website, 2007 is described as "the year of the great pandemic".
The timeline begins in January with sporadic human cases of the bird flu H5N1 in Indonesia. By March, several family clusters are confirmed in west Africa and the Middle East, and by May it is suspected to have spread beyond families in scattered areas of Africa.
In June and July, cases of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 appear in South America and South-east Asia, killing one in 20 of those infected. The World Health Organisation declares a global pandemic is under way.
Four clusters appear in New Zealand soon after, traced to an aircraft from North America. They are initially controlled.
In August, clusters emerge in the Bay of Plenty and Canterbury. They spread despite control measures, and by the end of August the virus has spread throughout the country.
"By mid-September, the pandemic is very serious and still getting worse," says the draft scenario.
"Tamiflu has not been as effective as hoped, although it is still of some use."
By the end of September, 750,000 people have been affected and 2 per cent, or 15,000 people, have died.
"The major impacts are on the young and the elderly ... (and) pregnant women."
The country runs out of Tamiflu in early October, but the pandemic peaks. By November, an effective pandemic vaccine becomes available and a national vaccination campaign swings into action.
More than 30,000 people have died and deaths continue into December with late complications.
"Many bodies, including those of children, remain in frozen storage, while the survivors of families organise funerals and tangi," says the draft scenario.
In January, the scenario concludes, a royal commission is set up to investigate New Zealand's management of the pandemic.
By KAMALA HAYMAN - The Press | Saturday, 24 February 2007
An exercise to test the country's preparedness for a deadly flu pandemic will be the largest of its kind, involving almost every government department.
In May, Exercise Cruickshank will ask authorities to cope with a mock influenza pandemic sweeping the nation, killing more than 30,000 people.
In a draft scenario, published on the Health Ministry's website, 2007 is described as "the year of the great pandemic".
The timeline begins in January with sporadic human cases of the bird flu H5N1 in Indonesia. By March, several family clusters are confirmed in west Africa and the Middle East, and by May it is suspected to have spread beyond families in scattered areas of Africa.
In June and July, cases of human-to-human transmission of H5N1 appear in South America and South-east Asia, killing one in 20 of those infected. The World Health Organisation declares a global pandemic is under way.
Four clusters appear in New Zealand soon after, traced to an aircraft from North America. They are initially controlled.
In August, clusters emerge in the Bay of Plenty and Canterbury. They spread despite control measures, and by the end of August the virus has spread throughout the country.
"By mid-September, the pandemic is very serious and still getting worse," says the draft scenario.
"Tamiflu has not been as effective as hoped, although it is still of some use."
By the end of September, 750,000 people have been affected and 2 per cent, or 15,000 people, have died.
"The major impacts are on the young and the elderly ... (and) pregnant women."
The country runs out of Tamiflu in early October, but the pandemic peaks. By November, an effective pandemic vaccine becomes available and a national vaccination campaign swings into action.
More than 30,000 people have died and deaths continue into December with late complications.
"Many bodies, including those of children, remain in frozen storage, while the survivors of families organise funerals and tangi," says the draft scenario.
In January, the scenario concludes, a royal commission is set up to investigate New Zealand's management of the pandemic.
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