wave 2

[gsgs]

wikipedia has 37700 cases in USA, my updates see above

new upate from Mexico, 2nd wave, 16.July:




assume 4 months between waves, until immunity weakens again
(as in 1918) this implies widespread infection in Mexico
in late March. Surveillance and the chart only started in mid-April

It might give the 2nd wave in NY in late September

-------------------------------------

few new infections in Distrito Federal(DF), which was hardest hit
in the first wave. People are still protected ?

Worst is Yucatan, which had almost no cases in the first wave
now ~1 (confirmed) case per 1000 inhabitants, 10 times more than DF

Biggest district is Mexico state which had not many
confirmed cases in either wave

[JimO]

Re: wave 2

Mexico has reported less than 10 deaths since early June. Based on the chart above, is that realistic? If so, then the second wave in Mexico apparently isn't nearly as deadly.

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

hmm, Yucatan and Chiapas could be the mild Cancun virus(es) ?

Also deaths follow onset dates with quite some delay

[Rwilmer]

Re: wave 2

It looks like the data and the chart are scewed.

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

here is a graph of case-population-rate by wave for the 32 states.

Cases in Yucatan and Chiapas exploded in wave 2
(vertical is 3 times reduced over horizontal already)

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

Mexico should really tell the world, what strains are dominating in Yukatan
and Chiapas and if the CFR is really so much lower than in wave 1

The idea is to maybe support the Cancun-strains (no measures)
and hinder the other strains worldwide (school closures,
vaccine, SIP)

[SonicHappyHourAddict]

Re: wave 2

It seems like watching for a second wave is very appropriate. Thanks for being viligent.
We are all here to help each other and the world hopefully be prepared as much as possible.
Thanks to everyone for their hard work.

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

the ratio of deaths is not so much different from the Mexican
average in Yucatan and Chiapas :

region,confirmed cases,confirmed deaths
Mexico:12645,124
Yucatan:1681,14
Chiapas:2205,15

but Yucatan and Chiapas had many new cases recently
and presumably they are not testing much.
Compare with New York City, where they only has 1200
confirmed cases, 50 deaths, >500000 infected.

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

here the data for that chart above from 18.July



state,population,official cases wave 1,official cases wave 2 + wave 1

Coahuila,2495,0,2
Baja_California_Sur,512,5,11
Durango,1509,13,29
Sinaloa,2209,5,46
Campeche,755,25,57
Tlaxcala,1068,66,77
Puebla,5383,40,77
Sonora,2395,34,106
Morelos,1613,79,109
Baja_California,2844,65,134
Nayarit,950,53,145
Colima,568,18,157
Aguascalientes,1065,52,169
Oaxaca,3507,42,185
Quintana_Roo,1135,26,196
Chihuahua,3241,37,199
Guanajuato,4893,25,233
Queretaro,1598,120,243
Hidalgo,2345,234,272
Tamaulipas,3024,42,293
Zacatecas,1368,148,339
Mexico,14007,219,383
Nuevo_Leon,4199,26,455
Michoacan,3966,95,469
San_Luis_Potosi,2410,252,499
Guerrero,3115,129,604
Jalisco,7000,88,680
Veracruz,7110,182,712
Tabasco,1990,106,720
Yucatan,1819,57,1681
Distrito_Federal,8836,1568,2151
Chiapas,4293,37,2205

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Thank you very much for posting the charts and graphs GSGS. I REALLY appreciate it!

Regarding the chart above, are you sure the first set of numbers designate population? I know the State of Jalisco has WAY more than 7000 people, so I am a bit confused...
Thanks!

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

multiply by 1000
numbers from Wikipedia (2005-census)

sorry, 3rd number is waves 1 and 2 combined (total)



Jalisco is the circle with the rectangle in it in above picture

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Given the fact that I noticed everyone sick again the last week of July, and the fact that Jalisco has confirmed it..

Re: Jalisco: Cases

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source: http://www.lajornadajalisco.com.mx/2...ticle=007n1pol

During the same period, average daily confirmations increased from 9 to 15
SSJ: in the last ten days has doubled the number of deaths from influenza A/H1N1

The state agency will undertake intensive campaign before the arrival of 300 thousand parishioners

PONCE SAAVEDRA VIRIDIANA

During the past ten days the indicators of deaths from influenza A/H1N1 in Jalisco doubled. Until yesterday afternoon were 11 deaths confirmed by the Ministry of Health Jalisco (SSJ), after it was added to the list for a woman of 48 years, residing in Tlaquepaque, whereas only last July 27 there were five confirmed deaths.

At the same time, the contagion index also rose 8.8 confirmations per day on average since the beginning of the health alert on April 23 last year, averaging 15.6 confirmations per day in the period of July 27 until yesterday, after which that date were 842 confirmed cases yesterday and totaled 998.

I would expect to see another sharp rise in the graph in post #1 for the end of July into August....and school has not started yet!

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

update from 4th August

http://portal.salud.gob.mx/sites/salud/descargas/pdf/influenza/situacion_actual_epidemia_040809.pdf

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Perhaps confirmation is lagging or people are not that sick yet? I've been watching the Mexico thread closely and nearly all states have increased cases.
Re. illness, I believe you are correct Dr. Niman,
Within the realm of my family and friends, the answer is yes. This is our 3rd time around. First was end of April, second time, beginning of June, and now the end of July. Seems its either G.I. or respiratory, but usually not both at the same time. Everyone has the cough though.

It does seem a little different each time, my 9 yr old for instance, had a sore throat/fever/cough the first time. Diarrhea, vomiting and fever the second time. And high fever, swollen glands, cough the 3rd time.
Similar, but different.

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

can't we get more reports from infected people or their friends ?

Who had had it should go to the internet, search for suitable
keywords and inform the rest of the world !
This is of common interest.

Please add some Spanish keywords to this thread, so it can be
found.
That we are seeking for people reporting about their
symptoms, timings, who they possibly got it from