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Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)
What about the CDC reported atypical pneumonia outbreak from October 2008 at Green City Elementary - 10 miles from Smithfields 300,000 sqaure-foot pork processing facility in Milan Missouri.
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KTVO.com provides news, sports and weather coverage and serves the area around Kirksville, Missouri and Ottumwa, Iowa, including Greentop, Lancaster, Downing, Memphis, Rutledge, Baring, Edina, Novelty, La Plata, Atlanta, Macon, Elmer, New Boston, Browning, Milan, Green City, Novinger, Pollock and Unionville, Missouri and Bloomfield, Floris, Eldon, Moulton, Blakesburg, Moravia, Eddyville, Oskaloosa, Ollie, Sigourney, Burlington and What Cheer, Iowa
6 months earlier during a 1-1/2 month span around February Sullivan County (the location of the pork plant and the elementary school) recorded the states highest per population influenza outbreak out of 114 counties. 143 specimens from the counties less than 7,000 residents were tested and 99% were positive for Influenza A. If this outbreak was swine to human, the first mutation could have shown up at Green City Elementary later that year in October.
What are the statistical odds of these events occuring next to a gigantic hog processing plant and having no relation?
Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)
I remember, at first there was no date given for 4487,
they included it later.
I remember, there was a delay before the Mexican sequences were published.
Presumably there were concerns, but they couldn't so well entirely withhold
the sequences, that would have given protests.
Yet, they didn't want to disclose the dates, which sequence
belongs to whom ?!?
Or is it just burocracy, they forgot to include the data and built
a system around them to make it harder to contact them ?
and reporters don't read sequences...
Isn't it amazing how much effort was put into this to report about
the origin, examine it - but apparantly noone included the sequences into
their analysis ?!?!?!?!?
Usually it isn't even mentioned in the reports that there are sequences.
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the first confirmed case had first symptoms on 11.March
and is from Mexico City
still the sequences 4487,4115 are almost identical,
presumably 4487 (Gutierrez) got it from 4115 (50,female,sampled 07.April)
and they are very close to the origin of the virus. Close in mutations
but not time
Mexico, please tell the world: who is 4115 ?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Gutierrez did not get it from 4115 - you're timing is WRONG. Gutierrez took ill on 4/2, so she was likely exposed before 3/30. The person who infected her had a mild case ("bad cold") are recovered well before 4/7 and was never hospitalized )they checked Gutierrez for contact with other ill patients - if the person who infected her was hospitalized, they would have found it).
Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)
the person who infected Gutierrez is not known, AFAIK.
Where did you find that "bad cold" ? I serched a lot but
didn't see it.
Gutierrez was hospitalized 9.April, 4115 was sampled 7.April.
Assume the same delay, then 4115 may have infected Gutierrez.
Or is very close to the common source.
Some people in Santa Lucia del Camino were ill at that time,
interview with Hermelinda Leon
the person who infected Gutierrez is not known, AFAIK.
Where did you find that "bad cold" ? I serched a lot but
didn't see it.
Gutierrez was hospitalized 9.April, 4115 was sampled 7.April.
Assume the same delay, then she may have infected Gutierrez.
Or is very close to the common source.
Some people in Sta.Lucia del media were ill at that time,
interview with Hermelinda Leon
I forget where I read that, but I read it back in April. The statement was that she had a "work partner from Veracruz with a bad cold". It might have been one of the Diario articles, released AFTER 4/24 confirmation of H1N1, or it might have been the LA Times article congratulating the Diario. I forget exactly where.
And anyway, Gutierrez onset date is 4/2, she wasn't hospitalized until 4/9. I can't imagine the person who infected Gutierrez had been hospitalized - when the SSO was investigating the death (around 4/16) - they did contact tracing and didn't find any linked case. If her work partner had been hospitalized, they would have found it, and we would have gotten a very different alarm.
Adela Maria Gutierrez fell ill on April 1 with what she thought was a bad cold. She tried aspirin and antibiotics, bed rest and moist towels, but nothing brought down her soaring fever, reduced her aches and pains, or boosted her energy level.
It would be eight days before Gutierrez went to Oaxaca?s general hospital, where she arrived listless and barely able to breathe, her extremities blue from a lack of oxygen. That delay in getting expert help may explain why Gutierrez, 39, a mother of daughters ages 10, 17 and 20, became Mexico?s first death from a new, virulent strain of influenza A (H1N1). It may also explain why Mexico?s death toll from the virus is higher than anyplace else?s...
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