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More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

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  • #16
    Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

    no nurses infected, neither family members.
    But then a few students returning from Cancun 20.Apr
    and ~350 infected by 23.Apr in a school
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

      New york times says she fell ill on April 1st, after the first illness onset's from California.

      http://tech.mit.edu/V129/N23/long2.html

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

        Maybe the sample is from the other individual that reportedly died in Oaxaca about the same time.

        Name: Silvano Jaen Palomeque
        Home Location: <st1:city w:st="on">San Juan</st1:city> Teotalcingo, <st1:city w:st="on">Santiago</st1:city> <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Choapam</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">Oaxaca</st1:state></st1:place>
        Sex: M
        Age: ?
        Onset: ?
        Hospital Admission: ?
        Hospital: Hospital General ?Dr. Aurelio Valdivieso?
        Outcome: Died, ?
        Comment:
        Link: http://www.diariodespertar.com.mx/Ag...Sanitaria.html
        http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

          Originally posted by Laidback Al View Post
          Maybe the sample is from the other individual that reportedly died in Oaxaca about the same time.

          Name: Silvano Jaen Palomeque
          Home Location: <st1:city w:st="on">San Juan</st1:city> Teotalcingo, <st1:city w:st="on">Santiago</st1:city> <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:city w:st="on">Choapam</st1:city>, <st1:state w:st="on">Oaxaca</st1:state></st1:place>
          Sex: M
          Age: ?
          Onset: ?
          Hospital Admission: ?
          Hospital: Hospital General ?Dr. Aurelio Valdivieso?
          Outcome: Died, ?
          Comment:
          Link: http://www.diariodespertar.com.mx/Ag...Sanitaria.html
          We still know NOTHING about his death. We don't know when he died, or even what he died of. I don't believe his is being counted as an H1N1 death.

          The Diario claimed to have publish his death certificate on 4/16, but I couldn't find any sign of it online.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

            What about the CDC reported atypical pneumonia outbreak from October 2008 at Green City Elementary - 10 miles from Smithfields 300,000 sqaure-foot pork processing facility in Milan Missouri.


            http://www.heartlandconnection.com/n...aspx?id=201237
            http://www.heartlandconnection.com/n...aspx?id=215423


            6 months earlier during a 1-1/2 month span around February Sullivan County (the location of the pork plant and the elementary school) recorded the states highest per population influenza outbreak out of 114 counties. 143 specimens from the counties less than 7,000 residents were tested and 99% were positive for Influenza A. If this outbreak was swine to human, the first mutation could have shown up at Green City Elementary later that year in October.

            What are the statistical odds of these events occuring next to a gigantic hog processing plant and having no relation?

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

              test the samples
              presumably had been done

              when they are positive for flu-A, then it must be seasonal flu,
              else they had been untypable
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                I remember, at first there was no date given for 4487,
                they included it later.

                I remember, there was a delay before the Mexican sequences were published.

                Presumably there were concerns, but they couldn't so well entirely withhold
                the sequences, that would have given protests.
                Yet, they didn't want to disclose the dates, which sequence
                belongs to whom ?!?

                Or is it just burocracy, they forgot to include the data and built
                a system around them to make it harder to contact them ?


                and reporters don't read sequences...

                Isn't it amazing how much effort was put into this to report about
                the origin, examine it - but apparantly noone included the sequences into
                their analysis ?!?!?!?!?
                Usually it isn't even mentioned in the reports that there are sequences.


                http://resisteacapulco.blogspot.com
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                  the first confirmed case had first symptoms on 11.March
                  and is from Mexico City

                  still the sequences 4487,4115 are almost identical,
                  presumably 4487 (Gutierrez) got it from 4115 (50,female,sampled 07.April)

                  and they are very close to the origin of the virus. Close in mutations
                  but not time


                  Mexico, please tell the world: who is 4115 ?
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                    the first confirmed case had first symptoms on 11.March
                    and is from Mexico City

                    still the sequences 4487,4115 are almost identical,
                    presumably 4487 (Gutierrez) got it from 4115 (50,female,sampled 07.April)

                    and they are very close to the origin of the virus. Close in mutations
                    but not time


                    Mexico, please tell the world: who is 4115 ?
                    I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Gutierrez did not get it from 4115 - you're timing is WRONG. Gutierrez took ill on 4/2, so she was likely exposed before 3/30. The person who infected her had a mild case ("bad cold") are recovered well before 4/7 and was never hospitalized )they checked Gutierrez for contact with other ill patients - if the person who infected her was hospitalized, they would have found it).

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                      the person who infected Gutierrez is not known, AFAIK.
                      Where did you find that "bad cold" ? I serched a lot but
                      didn't see it.

                      Gutierrez was hospitalized 9.April, 4115 was sampled 7.April.
                      Assume the same delay, then 4115 may have infected Gutierrez.
                      Or is very close to the common source.

                      Some people in Santa Lucia del Camino were ill at that time,
                      interview with Hermelinda Leon
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                        the person who infected Gutierrez is not known, AFAIK.
                        Where did you find that "bad cold" ? I serched a lot but
                        didn't see it.

                        Gutierrez was hospitalized 9.April, 4115 was sampled 7.April.
                        Assume the same delay, then she may have infected Gutierrez.
                        Or is very close to the common source.

                        Some people in Sta.Lucia del media were ill at that time,
                        interview with Hermelinda Leon
                        I forget where I read that, but I read it back in April. The statement was that she had a "work partner from Veracruz with a bad cold". It might have been one of the Diario articles, released AFTER 4/24 confirmation of H1N1, or it might have been the LA Times article congratulating the Diario. I forget exactly where.

                        And anyway, Gutierrez onset date is 4/2, she wasn't hospitalized until 4/9. I can't imagine the person who infected Gutierrez had been hospitalized - when the SSO was investigating the death (around 4/16) - they did contact tracing and didn't find any linked case. If her work partner had been hospitalized, they would have found it, and we would have gotten a very different alarm.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                          yes, the co-worker from Veracruz. I read "with a bad cough".

                          I agree the co-worker was unlikely tested.
                          Also : "temorary employee", so maybe they lost her.

                          But it's unclear whether Gutierrez got it from that coworker.
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                            Adela Maria Guti?rrez fell ill April 1 with what she thought was a bad cold.


                            http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...lufirst01.html

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                              Is this it?

                              Adela Maria Gutierrez, A Victim of Flu and Delay
                              By Marc Laceyand Elisabeth Malkin
                              THE NEW YORK TIMES
                              May 1, 2009
                              OAXACA, Mexico

                              Adela Maria Gutierrez fell ill on April 1 with what she thought was a bad cold. She tried aspirin and antibiotics, bed rest and moist towels, but nothing brought down her soaring fever, reduced her aches and pains, or boosted her energy level.

                              It would be eight days before Gutierrez went to Oaxaca?s general hospital, where she arrived listless and barely able to breathe, her extremities blue from a lack of oxygen. That delay in getting expert help may explain why Gutierrez, 39, a mother of daughters ages 10, 17 and 20, became Mexico?s first death from a new, virulent strain of influenza A (H1N1). It may also explain why Mexico?s death toll from the virus is higher than anyplace else?s...

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: More information on the origins of this (Oaxaca)

                                Originally posted by pflu View Post
                                Adela Maria Guti?rrez fell ill April 1 with what she thought was a bad cold.


                                http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...lufirst01.html
                                Good enough. The person who infected her must have recovered at least a couple days before 4/7.

                                Comment

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