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Mexico - H1N1 Case Tracking: 1,329 Dead Through July 2010
Re: Mexico: 103 deaths and 1,614 hospitalized Apr 26, 2009
several isolated cases in USA and other countries, also in
Mexican districts, which showed no systematic increase,
most "outbreaks" died, except the 1-3 main places.
Doesn't look like a pandemic
Google translation:
The GDF reported more deaths from influenza
City government reported the deaths of seven people hit by the virus, indicated that samples sent to laboratories to identify measures to combat it.
Posted at 08:45 Monday, April 27, 2009
MEXICO CITY (AP) - The president City, Marcelo Ebrard, reported the deaths of seven people with swine influenza in the last 24 hours, bringing to 22 the number of deaths that evil in the city of Mexico.
To reiterate that this is a critical weeks, five detailed objectives to prevent the spread of the virus, including ensuring the distribution of drugs between individuals who suffer from the disease cree, and unify the criteria for its management and implementation.
The head of the Federal District (GDF) that is shared between cubrebocas drivers and public transport users, in addition to developing the productive sector contingency plans for that area.
Similarly announcement about one of the most important laboratories at international level in research and development of the genome, which were sent samples to identify the genomic structure of the virus.
Re: Mexico: 149 deaths and 770 hospitalized, over 1000 released, total 1,995 cases Apr 27, 2009
Assuming all the people in the hospital recover....the CFR would be around 7%. However, I doubt, based on what we have seen to date that that will be the case.
Assuming all the people in the hospital recover....the CFR would be around 7%. However, I doubt, based on what we have seen to date that that will be the case.
Do you suspect the CFR will increase? With each news release it seems to be climbing, the latest figures have really jumped the CFR.
Let's say no more people get infected (I know....not going to happen)
So you have 149 dead out of 1,995 but 770 still hospitalized.
The CFR would remain 7% if all 770 of those people survived, which I am 99% sure is not going to happen. Therefore, the CFR in this case would most likely rise.
However, all of this assumes two things:
1) Mexico has accurately reported all the cases and there really are only 1,995.
2) Mexico has accurately reported all the deaths and there really are only 149.
If both those are true the CFR will go up because some of the 770 won't survive.
That being said....I don't beleive the numbers are accurate....not from any fault of the Mexican government, but more from a belief that they haven't accounted for all the cases.
Google translation:
Ebrard slight decrease in reported cases of influenza in Mexico City PDF Print
Mexico, Distrito Federal
April 27, 2009
Multimedios American News Agency
The head of the Federal District, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, reported a slight decrease in the number of potential influenza infections in Mexico City from Saturday to Sunday, but reiterated the call to people to keep and extra precautions to avoid infection because there is the likelihood of a recovery from this syndrome. At a press conference with Secretary of Health, Armando Ortega Ahued, to inform the public about results of government actions to tackle the capital epidemiological warning, insisted that the faster the disease is detected, there are more likely to be cured and avoid a tragic outcome.
As part of his administration, raised five strategic objectives for the next few days, which will be decisive for this effect, which stressed the need for greater coordination with the Federal Ministry of Health with the opportunity to supply the drug at all probable infections influenza. "A better distribution of medicines, the better the outcome for the city," he said. Other immediate actions are enlisted to accelerate the distribution of face mask in public transport-Metro, Metrobus, Electrical System Transport, Passenger Transport Network and the main lines of minibuses and buses, starting with the productive sector of the contingency plan provided in a system of high alert, unify the management of patients and identify the genomic structure of the virus to increase the likelihood of success in combat. For the latter purpose, the Government of the Federal District contacted the Craig Venter Institute research, perhaps the most important global authority on research and development in relation to genome-and soon will send samples of the virus for study. The president announced meetings in Havana with the leaders of chambers and business associations from today for all industrial, commercial or service starts and the contingency plan provided for a system of high alert in order to reduce the speed of spread of the virus and respond to potential infection. He stressed that so far the main difference between the group's demise and the recovery is the degree of progress of the disease that occur in hospitals. Of the deaths of the previous day, two were very serious, so died in less than two hours after admission.
"So, I repeat: people with symptoms that we have, particularly very high fever and respiratory illness obvious, it is important to take time to clinics and hospitals," he said. Ahued Ortega explained that the 220 health centers and 28 hospitals of the Federal District on Sunday came five thousand 171 people with respiratory tract infections, 47 of which were sent to hospitals for evaluation. During the day the infection was confirmed in 17 patients, who are already treated with the drug available, there were eight people with high infection detected promptly and seven more died, bringing the total number of victims reached 22 since the detection of the epidemic. Nine thousand were also reported 806 cases of acute respiratory tract infections and there were almost 25-thousand people by telephone of which 19 were referred to hospitals for evaluation and two-over 116 thousand on the Internet. The capital-management-ended distributed over one million 350 thousand fliers and more than 739 thousand cubrebocas in the public transport network. The Head of Government thanked the people support the adoption of agreed and ordered precautions. "We must keep the effort this week, which is critical. We want today to May 6 to reduce the speed of propagation of the virus and the number of deaths. Are the two main objectives, for which we need to take all preventive measures for institutions, corporations and individuals, "he stressed. Minimize the likelihood of a fence to Mexico, as the virus is already at almost half the country and in other countries like United States and Canada.
Re: Mexico: 149 deaths and 770 hospitalized, over 1000 released, total 1,995 cases Apr 27, 2009
Guys...
The CFR is NOT 7%... There are bound to be hundreds if not thousands of undiagnosed AND MILD cases. Comparing it to the 1918 pandemic is also irresponsible. How valid can the data from 1918 be in terms of individuals infected? Can you really trust that the CFR rate was ~2% back then?
Just wait until the field epidemiologists on the ground can get a valid CFR. Until then, stop speculating.
Re: Mexico: 149 deaths and 770 hospitalized, over 1000 released, total 1,995 cases Apr 27, 2009
Seasonal influenza has typically had a CFR of 0.1% percent according to statistics from the WHO and CDC.
Historical records from the 1918 pandemic state that the CFR generally ranged from 0.5% to 2% with most credible researchers data, to a high of 5% with a few researchers data that had problems with peer review or acceptance.
There is an interesting thesis circulating that the reason the CFRs during the 1918 Pandemic were lower in the "45 year old plus crowd" because they were exposed to something in the 1889-1890 Russian Flu pandemic that gave them resistance to the viral cytokine storm response.
This info was all from retrospective studies done after the fact, not real time info.
There are so many variables at play in viral studies.... it is way too early to even attempt or to speculate at what this virus will do, or what the rates of serious illness or fatality will be. To suggest a 7% CFR is unheard of and irrational..... way beyond even the CFRs described in the 1918 Great Flu Pandemic or the Black Death. Someone even recently hypothesised one billion deaths..... at this stage, that is just irresponsible fear mongering and the reason that Flutrackers.com has moderators and experts available.
The message still needs to focus on relevant and timely information exchange and gathering; proper notification of actual risks; personal and community preparedness expectations; and what the true ability of the government will be in mitigating a highly virulent strain that escapes into the wild may do.
So far, this A/H1N1 virus has been relatively mild in most areas. That does not mean that it will remain so, or that it might not just fade away. If history repeats itself (and it does), if this isn't a global pandemic, it surely is setting the next stages for one regardless of severity or potential.
"Predictable is Preventable" by Safety Expert Dr. Gordon Graham.
Re: Mexico: 149 deaths and 770 hospitalized, over 1000 released, total 1,995 cases Apr 27, 2009
Right now the only thing that can be monitored is the complications rates of hospitalised patients, and deaths of these individuals. It is worth monitoring to see how the trends rise and fall - however, perhaps we shoudl refer to it as something OTHER than CFR to avoid possible misperception and confusion, as we cannot know the true number of cases in the community. How about hospitalised patients fatality rate (HPFR)? this will remain the only measure that can be monitored in real-time for some while.
Since Tamiflu is on offer to individuals who come forward, we may begin to see a more accurate picture of case loads in the days ahead. I would also expect some real time seroprevalence monitoring of contacts to give us an indication of the numbers of those 'silently infected', once the necessary testing kits are available. Data such as CFR may be impossible to measure accurately for a long while.
Google translation: Mexico City announces 3 more probable swine flu deaths
16 minutes ago
MEXICO (AFP) - Three people died on Monday in Mexico City, probably due to the swine flu, which are attributed more than 150 deaths throughout Mexico, reported Tuesday that the secretary of Health in the capital, Armando Ahued.
On Monday there were three deaths, but 14 other persons who presented with symptoms of the virus were discharged the same day, the official explained in statements to the press. Ahued did not detail whether these three new deaths were carried out to determine the virological testing completely killed by the virus.
The federal government says that 152 people have died, probably by the swine flu, 20 of them confirmed. On Monday, more than 12,000 people who came with some kind of respiratory disease to medical center of the capital, the Mexican city worst hit by the swine flu.
The mayor, Marcelo Ebrard, ordered Tuesday the closure of "health clubs, sports clubs, billiards and other activities to accompany the strategy of prevention in a capital where the classrooms are not open or museum which has canceled hundreds of events.
Since the alert was triggered by the new influenza virus (flu) symptoms were examined in Mexico City on Thursday, 127 people, 210 on Friday, 351 Saturday, 326 Sunday and 320 on Monday, detailed Ebrard. "The big risk was to continue doubling the number each day as it was" virtually at the beginning of the epidemic, Ebrard said.
"The steps being taken of the population is beginning to reflect" this slight decrease in cases, said the mayor, who also said "we are at the critical time in which we must achieve as a city that is not a contagion exponential . The authorities reiterated that the drug used to combat the virus is highly effective especially in the first 72 hours. "
Mexico launches new measures Tuesday to mitigate the spread of the epidemic of swine flu that has left 152 dead likely to spread throughout the country school recess and the implementation of tens of thousands of analysis to detect the bad .
"Educational activities are suspended throughout the country from next Tuesday until May 6," said Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova on Monday.
School classes at all levels were suspended on Friday at the overcrowded Mexican capital and its suburbs, with 20 million inhabitants and the area of Latin American country most affected by the epidemic.
We have also canceled hundreds of cultural, artistic and sporting events to avoid the crowds, which provides a source of contagion. Monday night, the streets of downtown Mexico City looked empty, with restaurants closed, few cars and few pedestrians. Amid the upheaval at the spread of the virus, a strong earthquake shook the Mexican capital and the south in the afternoon of Monday.
Many capital took to the streets alarmed with the mask that is used to prevent an infection of the flu. "We are at the height of the epidemic, the number will be increased" (by contagion), Cordova said moments before the World Health Organization raised from 3 to 4, with a maximum of 6, the alert level involving potential pandemic.
In Mexico this increase warning implies a deepening of measures to mitigate the epidemic, the government will face, especially with the timely detection of the virus, which until now has found a balance of 152 cases of deaths by probable infection and 20 were confirmed.
"We could do 150,000 tests and genomic studies and from the day after tomorrow (Wednesday) we would be able to make between 500,000 and 600,000 tests," said Cordova. The official also pointed out in statements broadcast on the evening that the first case of infection of influenza emerged in the southern state of Oaxaca.
Google translation: There are 150 possible cases of influenza in 8 states
According to the Director of Health Policy and Quality of Ssa Potosina, Francisco Javier Posadas, 66 percent of all cases of influenza have been diagnosed in men, that 50 percent of patients live in the west of the capital San Luis Potosi, where there are residential colonies. No cases have been children.
By: La Jornada
28-Apr-2009 (10:28 a.m.)
Mexico City .- The Ministry of Health (SSA) in San Luis Potosi on Monday reported two more deaths from influenza, which amounted to 12 deaths due to disease, that the number of cases detected in the state increased to 83 Monday. It was also documented at least 150 cases "suspicious" of the illness in eight states.
According to the Director of Health Policy and Quality of Ssa Potosina, Francisco Javier Posadas, 66 percent of all cases of influenza have been diagnosed in men, that 50 percent of patients live in the west of the capital San Luis Potosi, where there are residential colonies. No cases have been children.
Posadas said that only one of the cases documented in the state involved a person over 75 years, stressed that the group at highest risk is between 19 and 49 years.
Currently, the SSA has 5 Potosina 300 thousand doses of antiviral Oseltamivir for patients and diagnosed, and expects to receive other 43 thousand doses for adults and 18 pediatric thousand.
Health Services reported that in Zacatecas Manuel Martinez, 45 years old, who died Saturday in hospital in the city of Hidalgo Aguascalientes, was originating in the municipality of Loreto. The head of the agency, Elsa Aguirre, said that Martinez was the last of a family of 12 people infected in an influenza, and only he was killed.
Health Secretary Morelos, V?ctor Manuel Rodr?guez, reported two new confirmed cases of influenza, with four people who were documented with the disease and 17 analysis. "
Government officials put a fence Veracruz epidemiological Perote region, especially in the town La Gloria, which is the birthplace of a child sick with influenza confirmed as pigs. Announced that the siege of checkpoints involve review for those entering and leaving the community.
The administration headed by Governor Fidel Herrera announced that to compensate for the suspension of classes declared for Mexico, will offer classes for primary and secondary television, through the parastatal Radio Televisi?n de Veracruz.
The Ministry of Health in Chiapas analyzes at least 50 possible cases of influenza, but the mechanism of analysis is poor and slow, "so there is no officially recorded, showed employees of the unit, which asked the federal government team diagnosis, and adequate medication to patients who come to clinics with symptoms similar to that of swine fever.
For its part, the National Migration Institute announced the suspension of the repatriation of illegal aliens currently housed at 47 detention centers available to the agency throughout the country to avoid spreading the flu to countries where migrants originate.
The Ssa Coahuila studied at least 20 suspected cases of influenza, although no patients at the time confirmed, said the head of the agency, Raymundo Verduzco. Said that three people were hospitalized in Saltillo and Torre?n in order to confirm or if carrying the virus.
Health Services Chihuahua kept under observation for three patients with symptoms similar to influenza. Health Authorities diagnosed between Saturday and Sunday at least 16 suspected cases of influenza in Ju?rez; samples of patients and were sent to the state capital to confirm or rule out, said the Sanitary Jurisdiction No. 2. Gov. Jos? Reyes Baeza said that no patients were confirmed at the institution.
The government of Sinaloa in the state confirmed that there are five probable cases of influenza detected in the towns of Navolato, Ahome and Mazatlan. The governor Jesus Aguilar reported that the Labor Day parade was suspended.
Health authorities reported three cases Tamaulipas "suspect" in the Rio Grande border town, while the city of Matamoros, confirmed to a patient, for whom the City Council for Civil Protection was established in permanent session. It was also detected in Nuevo Laredo to a truckers infected with influenza as possible, who was hospitalized at the General Hospital in the town.
The Commission of Hygiene and Public Health of Mexico announced that Congress will ask the Policy Coordination Board of the Legislature to request the Electoral Institute of Politics and state officials that the times are used to disseminate preventive measures against influenza. He added that cubrebocas be delivered to workers in the legislative hall, and will be mandatory to use them who enters the site.
The governor of Jalisco, Emilio Gonzalez Marquez, said that even 16 hours this Monday, the entity was not a single confirmed case of swine influenza, and 30 patients suspected of carrying the disease on Sunday were all negative, although 21 other people were charged Monday for tests to determine whether the virus suffer. For its part, the Civil Hospital of Guadalajara said that five people had "very suspicious" of being infected, including at least two children, but the state still must verify that flu sufferers.
Michoacan has been reported 47 suspected cases of swine influenza, of which 34 were discarded for being negative and 13 are in the process, informed the State Secretary of Health, Armando Luna.
A side effect of the influenza outbreak was that the face mask, art low sale until last week, ran out in Durango, Hidalgo, Nuevo Leon. In the latter, the singer Celso Pi?a announced that he had had to cancel scheduled presentations in Puebla, Queretaro and Mexico City.
Preventive measures against disease parades scheduled to stay involved in the entities for Labor Day which is commemorated in Mexico on May.
Similarly, for the first time since the early twentieth century, was canceled in the capital city of Puebla, the parade in memory of the Battle of May 5.
Google translation: Total 21 deaths in four states swine influenza
Today 21:19 --
Of the correspondents, 28 Abr (Notimex) .- A total of 21 people have died from swine flu in four states. In San Luis Potosi have been 13 deaths in the State of Mexico four, three in Aguascalientes and Oaxaca one.
In San Luis Potos?, the Governor Marcelo de los Santos said the death toll by the swine flu rose to 13 today and said that 66 people still hospitalized, while 21 were discharged.
The government of the State of Mexico reported the deaths of four people by the influence swine, while announcing the arrival of 15,000 reagents for rapid test for detection of the virus.
The director of the Institute of Health in Aguascalientes, Ventura Huerta Vilchis, confirmed that one person died in the last hours in Aguascalientes, a cause of swine influenza, which added three deaths.
He added that there are 43 confirmed cases of infection by this disease, and of these 18 patients are still hospitalized.
In Oaxaca, from April 18 to date, the entity has registered 25 cases of swine influenza, of which there is an impasse, said the State Secretary of Health, Mart?n V?zquez Villanueva.
Explained that there are 13 people hospitalized, while another 12 have been discharged because of his recovery.
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