Archive: WHO, 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza - Updates (until the end of July 2010)

[gsgs]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

WHO has clear guidelines and they don't include
what the public thinks or perceives

[HenryN]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

just your opinion, others (Fukuda,Chan,Palese,...) disagree

Please. The SUSTAINED transmission of swine H1N1 worldwide is WELL beyond OBVIOUS.

<a rel="nofollow" href="http://flutracker.rhiza.com">Maps</a>

[HenryN]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

I think WHO is doing the right thing by not going to phase 6. If they did it now while the virus is still mild the public would think it as the virus has reached the maximum and as its not causing more deaths its not dangerous.

I realize that the # is all about the how wide spread the virus is and not about how lethal it is, however that is not how the public sees it. Currently it seems like everyone agrees that the virus is no big deal, so WHO does the right thing by not giving the impression that it cant get any worse.

WHO will have no choice. They will go to phase 6 in the next week or two.

[gsgs]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

daily new cases outside North America
02.May - 12.May

11,08,33,24,18,18,18,33,15,34,10,40

bidaily : 41,42,36,48,44,[40/.5]

no significant increase of new cases
outside North-America

[HenryN]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

daily new cases outside North America
02.May - 12.May

11,08,33,24,18,18,18,33,15,34,10

bidaily : 41,42,36,48,44

no significant increase of new cases
outside North-America

New REPORTED cases (largely limited to symptomatic tourists).

[Jeremy]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

just your opinion, others (Fukuda,Chan,Palese,...) disagree

I was positing thoughts and posing questions.

That being said, no one has still answered the question:

However what impact will it have if WHO moves to Phase 6. What changes and what is the net positive?

Henry, while I am not disagreeing with you on the fact that there are asymptomatic spreaders, mild spreaders and people who get sick but don't go the doctor. I am still a little unclear as to what difference it makes whether or not you go to Phase 6. Disregarding the reality on the ground, what it logistically different? What steps are going to be taken that have not already been taken?

[gsgs]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

the question is : does the amount(percentage) of nonreported cases
increase ?

Why should they nonreport more cases now than 10 days ago ?


I mean, outside North America, where the reporting/confirming capacity
is becoming exhausted

[Jeremy]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

the question is : does the amount(percentage) of nonreported cases
increase ?

Why should they nonreport more cases now than 10 days ago ?


I mean, outside North America, where the reporting/confirming capacity
is becoming exhausted

10 days ago they still had relatively little information about the virus. When they thought it was a higher virulence strain it was critical to work on containment to slow the spread. Hence, the travel shutdown to and from Mexico.

Furthermore, at some point you move away from lab confirmed cases to a clinical case definition.

If the issue is with WHO not announcing phase 6, it is because they do not have scientific data to support the move. Which could be a result of countries not reporting.

WHO makes decisions based on hard science, not hunches, best estimates, etc... While it may be slower, they rarely have to backpeddal on a WHO update. It may be frustrating but like I said before what changes if they officially move to phase 6 that isn't already being done right now?

[gsgs]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

But it did not happen in North America.
The number of new cases had been steadily increasing there.

[Jeremy]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

But it did not happen in North America.
The number of new cases had been steadily increasing there.

Containment was going to be a futile effort in the U.S. because it was too late. The horse was already out of the barn so to speak.

For example, the U.S. plan for containment, and closing of the borders, was always predicated on the belief that the pandemic virus would appear somewhere far away, like Indonesia.

That didn't happen, the virus appears right next door so there was no chance for containment.

That being said, a country like Indonesia did have an opportunity for containment, because they were farther away from the epicenter of the virus outbreak.

Proximity to the epicenter of the outbreak had a lot to do with it.

[gsgs]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

yes,...

so the horse is not yet out of the barn in Europe,Asia (?!?!)

[HenryN]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

I was positing thoughts and posing questions.

That being said, no one has still answered the question:

However what impact will it have if WHO moves to Phase 6. What changes and what is the net positive?

Henry, while I am not disagreeing with you on the fact that there are asymptomatic spreaders, mild spreaders and people who get sick but don't go the doctor. I am still a little unclear as to what difference it makes whether or not you go to Phase 6. Disregarding the reality on the ground, what it logistically different? What steps are going to be taken that have not already been taken?

WHO typically issues announcements that are for public consumption, such as the denial of local H5N1 H2H transmission in the vast majority of clusters. Typically, the actions are consistant with the true pucture, but the announcements are not.

Right now most of the public assumes the H1N1 pandemic is disppearing and the media over-hyped H1N1 expansion, when in reality most of the media still has little understanding the close relationship between the 2009 pandemic and 1918.

[Jeremy]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

yes,...

so the horse is not yet out of the barn in Europe,Asia (?!?!)

There are attempts at containment being implemented in Europe and Asia.

Whether there is any meat behind them is debatable due to the issue of asymptomatic spreaders, symptomatic but mild, and symptomatic but not tested versus symptomatic and tested.

Is the horse out of the barn in Europe? Most likely.

Is the horse out of the barn in Asia? Possibly, but still to early to tell.

Regardless, it will hit everywhere....it is really only a matter of time.

That being said, no one has taken the challenge to answer the question:

However what impact will it have if WHO moves to Phase 6. What changes and what is the net positive?

[HenryN]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

the question is : does the amount(percentage) of nonreported cases
increase ?

Why should they nonreport more cases now than 10 days ago ?


I mean, outside North America, where the reporting/confirming capacity
is becoming exhausted

Testing is focused on new arrivals from North America, instead of spread within countries outside of North America.

[Jeremy]

Re: WHO Update #26 - 5251 cases - 61 dead - 30 countries

WHO typically issues announcements that are for public consumption, such as the denial of local H5N1 H2H transmission in the vast majority of clusters. Typically, teh actions are consistant with the true pucture, but the announceemnts are not.

Right now most of the public assumes the H1N1 pandemic is disppearing and the media over-hyped H1N1 expansion, when in reality most of the media still has little understanding the close relationship between the 2009 pandemic and 1918.

Henry,

So do you feel that lack of movement from Phase 5 to Phase 6 has taken H1N1 off the public radar, thus reducing the potential prepardness that could be taken place if we have a 1918 redux?