Osterholm warns about pandemic

[gsgs]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

and BTW., females are just often thinking differently about some things.
More of a social, cultural thing than being less capable.

[gsgs]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

now, can we please make a thread where everyone can give his/her
subjective probability estimate of a pandemic in the next 5 years ?
The thread should be open for correcting/editing the estimate
at any time. Or can I just do a poll without expiration date ?
What's the appropriate sub-forum ?

[sharon sanders]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

now, can we please make a thread where everyone can give his/her
subjective probability estimate of a pandemic in the next 5 years ?
The thread should be open for correcting/editing the estimate
at any time. Or can I just do a poll without expiration date ?
What's the appropriate sub-forum ?

I will set it up and link it here.


Done:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...1582#post31582

[granny]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Sorry, I just don't see the point.

What difference does a percentage make? If I am alive and well, I plan on eating. How can I possibly over prepare?

[gsgs]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Florida1, thanks. Can you delete H5N1, so any flu-pandemic will count ?
(i.e. also with reassorted H5N1).
I wished the experts would vote here too.
They could remain anonymous but we would have to verify
that they are experts.

granny, overpreparing is, when you spend too much money,
relocate,divorce,...while the threat is small, isn't worth it.
E.g. most people think that getting a vaccine-shot in 1976
against swine flu was over-prepping

[sharon sanders]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

gsgs - It has to stay H5N1 because the seasonal flu that everyone gets is usually widespread worldwide. Then, the only answer available for the poll would be 100%.

[gsgs]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

but seasonal flu is not considered a pandemic

[sharon sanders]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Why not?

A pandemic (from Greek pan all + demos people) is an epidemic (an outbreak of an infectious disease) that spreads worldwide, or at least across a large region.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

[gsgs]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

ask WHO etc.
It's very uncommon to count seasonal flu as pandemic.
There were 3 (flu-)pandemics last century:1918,1957,1968.

Look at the title of this thread, Osterholm won't
warn about seasonal flu

[sharon sanders]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

Yes - that is my point. We are talking only about H5N1 here.

We agree on something!!!

[gsgs]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

no, H5N1 might reassort with (e.g.) H3N2 to form a pandemic of H5N2 or H3N1 or H5N1 or H3N2.
Or H7N7 goes pandemic. Or a H1N1 pandemic reoccurs.

Somehow I feel that you are trying to ridicule the thing.

Somehow I feel that still no one here agrees that the most
important thing ATM is to get the experts give us their estimates.
Same in other forums.

People don't want it to be elaborated, how big the threat is.
Weird.

People in forums don't become meditative when experts and normal
people have completely different estimates than they have.
Weird.

Weird and disappointing. And unlogical. And prevalent, even among
experts.

[Sonny]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

gsgs - It has to stay H5N1 because the seasonal flu that everyone gets is usually widespread worldwide. Then, the only answer available for the poll would be 100%.

So if "IT" reasorts with a strain of H7 into H7N1 it doesn't count?

[sharon sanders]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

So if "IT" reasorts with a strain of H7 into H7N1 it doesn't count?

This is a possibility, but without knowing if this will happen, is it not possible to call it H5N1, now, for discussion and poll purposes?

[sharon sanders]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

I think some people need to take a break.

Go for a walk.

Have a nice meal.

Read a book.

It is mentally unhealthy to "do bird flu" 24/7.

Come back tomorrow.

The fight over semantics will seem trivial.


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[Sonny]

Re: Osterholm warns about pandemic

OK, A Pandemic Flu no matter what it's called.
I voted.