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Bahrain - Are we getting it right?

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  • Bahrain - Are we getting it right?

    It has to be asked why the death rate amongst swine flu patients in Bahrain has apparently been disproportionately so high, compared to elsewhere.

    By last Thursday, Bahrain had reported its first three deaths from swine flu, all of which occurred within four days.

    Bahrain health authorities are no longer publishing regular tallies of swine flu patients, but on August 25, they put the official figure at just 199, since the first case in mid-May.

    So even if we assume that in those few weeks the number of cases has shot up to say 300 (which seems unlikely given the previous growth rate), the death rate so far amounts to one in every 100 patients.

    Compare this to England, where as of Friday just gone, the death toll stood at 61, up from 57 the previous week. The death toll across the entire UK stood at 70 on the same day.

    England is reporting 750 new cases of swine flu a day and over the last week reported 4,500 new diagnoses - massively down on the 100,000 cases a week being reported more than a month ago.

    Medical chiefs in England are predicting a death rate of 0.1 per cent - or one in every 1,000 patients - and that's the "worst case scenario", which they say could result in 19,000 deaths.

    A more realistic figure, they say, is 3,000 deaths, which would work out somewhere around one in every 6,000 patients.

    Yet here in Bahrain we are witnessing a death rate of one in every 100 - unless the number of confirmed infections is much higher than authorities have been telling us.

    This raises several questions, foremost of which is whether patients are getting the right treatment, early enough.

    Secondly, since World Health Organisation experts and others have been warning since the beginning that the relatively mild H1N1 virus could mutate into a far more virulent form, is Bahrain a pocket for the deadlier version?

    Or should we be looking at the state of public health here overall, with a high population of poor, under-nourished expatriate labourers, high numbers of illegals and massive incidences of diabetes and hereditary blood diseases such as sickle cell, amongst the local population?

    This raises the further question of whether Bahrain is correctly tailoring its handling of swine flu and its potential impact to the specific nature of the pre-existing health situation amongst its population.

    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

  • #2
    Re: Bahrain - Are we getting it right?

    Hopefully they're aware of the impact from women thoroughly covering their bodies - stopping any natural Vitamin D absorbtion. If so, they may recommend women take more vitamin D supplements.

    .
    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

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    • #3
      Re: Bahrain - Are we getting it right?

      Is there a breakdown of the age and sex of the three dead individuals?
      http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

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      • #4
        Re: Bahrain - Are we getting it right?

        THE first person to die in Bahrain of swine flu had been suffering from a lung condition for years, her heartbroken father revealed yesterday. Runaway Filipina housemaid Jane Tamad Diale, aged 30, might have been saved had she sought treatment earlier, said a top health official. Ms Diale, who died in Salmaniya Medical Complex (SMC) on Sunday, was identified yesterday.


        ----------------------------

        Bahrain yesterday reported its second swine flu death in three days, when a 24-year-old man became the first Bahraini to succumb to the H1N1 virus.

        Mousa Jassim Al Taitoon, from Naim, died at the BDF Hospital at 3.10am yesterday, five days after being transferred from the American Mission Hospital.

        Three Bahraini women, one aged 70, were said to be in critical condition with swine flu last night, two at Salmaniya Medical Complex and one at the BDF Hospital.

        ---------------------------------

        BAHRAIN'S third swine flu casualty died before doctors could even confirm he had the H1N1 virus.

        Bangladeshi Mobarak Ahmed Abdur Rashid, aged 51, died in the Salmaniya Medical Complex (SMC) Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at around noon yesterday, about 12 hours after being admitted.

        "He was suffering from very acute pneumonia and respiratory failure so he was admitted to the ICU immediately

        ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
        Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

        ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

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        • #5
          Re: Bahrain - Are we getting it right?

          No children. Mostly older. 4 women and 2 men.

          Perhaps, lack of vitamin D from a lifetime of being "covered" made a difference.

          I believe their school year has just started - there was a relevent article in the GUlf new yesterday.

          .
          "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

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