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Study: Mutiple measures helped certain cities in 1918 pandemic
Monday December 11, 2006
By MIKE STOBBE
AP Medical Writer
ATLANTA (AP) Government health officials tried to build their case for school closings and similar steps during a flu pandemic by showcasing new research Monday that suggests such measures seemed to work during the deadly Spanish flu of 1918.
Researchers found that cities like St. Louis, which instituted ``social distancing'' at least two weeks before flu cases peaked in their communities, had flu-related death rates less than half that of Philadelphia, which didn't act until later.
The whirlwind historical research project which started in August involves a team of researchers from the University of Michigan and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who combed through health records, newspaper clippings and other documents from 45 cities.
``This is a Manhattan Project of history,'' said Michigan's Dr. Howard Markel, one of the lead researchers, in a presentation at a pandemic flu planning meeting of health officials in Atlanta.
Another finding: The more social distancing measures were used and the longer they were in place, the less severe was the pandemic's effect on a particular city. Wearing masks in public, restricting door-to-door sales, canceling church and quarantining sick people were among the layers of measures that appeared beneficial.
But the researchers acknowledged they've only just begun their analysis, and haven't teased out which measures were most effective. And they stopped short of saying those steps were the clear-cut reason some cities had lower death rates.
The unpublished research was presented at a meeting designed to help the government refine its advice to states and local governments about how to ready for potential outbreaks of an unusually deadly form of influenza be it the bird flu circulating in Asia and other parts of the world, or some other strain.
The research by Markel's team is considered some of the first to take a comprehensive look at how a large number of U.S. cities coped with the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than 500,000 Americans. They are gathering data for 45 cities with populations of 100,000 or more.
``The conventional wisdom, if you read the standard histories, is that nothing really worked and all cities were devastated,'' Markel said.
But using statistical modeling, the researchers concluded that cities with multiple measures in place had a smaller peak of illness and lower rates of flu-related deaths.
Several people at Monday's meeting questioned the meaning of the findings.
The 1918 virus hit cities along the East Coast hard and then spread west over the course of several weeks, so cities like St. Louis had more lead time. It's possible the virus mutated to become slightly less deadly in the weeks between when it peaked in Philadelphia and when it peaked in St. Louis, one person suggested.
Also, the nation is now technologically and socially different than it was in 1918, and factors like better transportation and shopping malls might cause a pandemic to play out differently, said Dr. D.A. Henderson, a biosecurity expert at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.
(Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
In the interest of timeliness, this story is fed directly from the Associated Press newswire and may contain occasional typographical errors.
Monday December 11, 2006
By MIKE STOBBE
AP Medical Writer
ATLANTA (AP) Government health officials tried to build their case for school closings and similar steps during a flu pandemic by showcasing new research Monday that suggests such measures seemed to work during the deadly Spanish flu of 1918.
Researchers found that cities like St. Louis, which instituted ``social distancing'' at least two weeks before flu cases peaked in their communities, had flu-related death rates less than half that of Philadelphia, which didn't act until later.
The whirlwind historical research project which started in August involves a team of researchers from the University of Michigan and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who combed through health records, newspaper clippings and other documents from 45 cities.
``This is a Manhattan Project of history,'' said Michigan's Dr. Howard Markel, one of the lead researchers, in a presentation at a pandemic flu planning meeting of health officials in Atlanta.
Another finding: The more social distancing measures were used and the longer they were in place, the less severe was the pandemic's effect on a particular city. Wearing masks in public, restricting door-to-door sales, canceling church and quarantining sick people were among the layers of measures that appeared beneficial.
But the researchers acknowledged they've only just begun their analysis, and haven't teased out which measures were most effective. And they stopped short of saying those steps were the clear-cut reason some cities had lower death rates.
The unpublished research was presented at a meeting designed to help the government refine its advice to states and local governments about how to ready for potential outbreaks of an unusually deadly form of influenza be it the bird flu circulating in Asia and other parts of the world, or some other strain.
The research by Markel's team is considered some of the first to take a comprehensive look at how a large number of U.S. cities coped with the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than 500,000 Americans. They are gathering data for 45 cities with populations of 100,000 or more.
``The conventional wisdom, if you read the standard histories, is that nothing really worked and all cities were devastated,'' Markel said.
But using statistical modeling, the researchers concluded that cities with multiple measures in place had a smaller peak of illness and lower rates of flu-related deaths.
Several people at Monday's meeting questioned the meaning of the findings.
The 1918 virus hit cities along the East Coast hard and then spread west over the course of several weeks, so cities like St. Louis had more lead time. It's possible the virus mutated to become slightly less deadly in the weeks between when it peaked in Philadelphia and when it peaked in St. Louis, one person suggested.
Also, the nation is now technologically and socially different than it was in 1918, and factors like better transportation and shopping malls might cause a pandemic to play out differently, said Dr. D.A. Henderson, a biosecurity expert at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center.
(Copyright 2006 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
In the interest of timeliness, this story is fed directly from the Associated Press newswire and may contain occasional typographical errors.
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