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Flu pandemic is only a matter of time, officials say
By Debra Pressey
Sunday, May 25, 2008 9:14 AM CDT
CHAMPAIGN ? Is there a little Emily Litella voice in your head that keeps wanting to ask: What's all this I hear about a panda epidemic?
Why do people keep saying the pandas are going to make us sick?
We don't even have pandas here. ...
Of course, we all know that's a pandemic we're being warned about.
Some of us are even vaguely aware that we're supposed to be stockpiling extra food and medicines in case a pandemic flu virus confines us to our homes for a while.
But are we paying any attention?
Julie Pryde displays the components of a pandemic flu kit along with a sample of her flu-related books Monday in her office at C-U Public Health District in Champaign. By Heather Coit
Heck, no.
"We're having so much difficulty getting the word out that a pandemic is inevitable," said Julie Pryde, acting director of the Champaign-Urbana Public Health District.
She and her staff are making themselves available to talk to any community group that asks about preparing for a pandemic.
They've offered to share their be-prepared plan with any city that wants it.
But even many of those who listen aren't taking warnings seriously to stock up on supplies, she says. People seem to think the government will save them and the stores will never close.
"People just can't grasp the fact that they're not going to be able to run to the store, and things may not be there when they do," Pryde said.
What's a pandemic?
For those who haven't been paying much attention, a pandemic influenza is a flu epidemic of epic proportions: It's a widespread outbreak of a new virus to which people have had no exposure ? and therefore have no immunity.
If you like weather analogies, think more along the lines of a hurricane rather than a spring shower.
There were three pandemics in the last century: in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic was the least severe, causing 34,000 deaths in the U.S.
The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was the most deadly, believed to have caused at least 500,000 deaths in the U.S. and up to 40 million deaths worldwide, according to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data.
For the past several years, health organizations have been monitoring the progress of avian (bird) influenza that has already taken a human toll in parts of the world. As of April 30, there have been 382 confirmed human cases resulting in 241 deaths since 2003, according to the World Health Organization.
Under the WHO's six-level pandemic influenza alert system, the world is currently at level three, meaning a new influenza virus subtype has been identified and is causing diseases in people, but isn't spreading efficiently from person to person.
So why start preparing now? Because health experts know viruses can change and spread rapidly.
And while there's no guarantee that will happen with avian flu, Pryde said, the next level on the alert system could escalate to a full-scale pandemic level six in a matter of just days or weeks.
"That's what's so hard to get people to understand," she said.
Recent history
The nasty flu season of 2007-08 was a sample of how fast a virus mutation can occur, Vermilion County Health Department Administrator Steve Laker said.
The vaccine developed for this past flu season failed to cover one or more of the strains that evolved, so even many of those who got flu shots were sick.
Another factor to keep in mind: It will be months, maybe up to a year, before a vaccine would be widely available for use for an avian flu pandemic, Laker said.
Illinois has invested $10 million to build up a supply of two anti-viral medications that can reduce the severity and duration of some flu cases, according to Melaney Arnold, spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Public Health.
The avian flu virus has proven to be resistant to those medicines, but they'd be in need if the next pandemic isn't avian flu. And that's something people need to keep in mind, Arnold said: The next pandemic might be another flu strain entirely.
In all, state public health has invested just over $27 million, more than half of which has been federal funding, on pandemic flu planning in the last three years, according to Arnold.
Given the potential for the next pandemic to be avian flu, some of the planning centers on using non-drug remedies such as "social distancing," the lingo for shutting down public places and asking people to stay home to minimize the spread of infection.
To help avoid the hardships that could cause, the C-U Public Health District has been promoting an at-home preparedness program it calls "Stock Two for Flu," which urges people to pick up an extra two items each time they go to the store until they have enough supplies on hand to last them two weeks.
But Pryde said about 90 percent of the people she meets aren't taking any precautions.
"We know people aren't prepared, because we ask everywhere we go," she adds.
Laker said the Vermilion County Health Department hasn't started urging people to stock up for a pandemic flu yet, because it's farther behind on pandemic planning due to budget constraints.
But it doesn't surprise him if people are being rather blase about the whole thing, he says, because that's just human nature.
"Events aren't real until they're real to most people," he said.
There's also the possibility that some people aren't stocking up because they can't afford to, Laker said.
"There are people who are having difficulty keeping food on their table week to week, let alone stockpile," he said.
What's the worry?
Is Laker concerned about the next pandemic? Put it this way: One of the most frightening books he's read in the last decade or two was "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" by John M. Barry, he said. And he's got extra copies circulating through his department that he's asked people to read when they get a chance.
What concerns him a lot, Laker said, is that even with all of today's technological advances, people may be less prepared to deal with a pandemic now than they were back in 1918, because Americans were still in a war mode then. They had things like gardens and pantries.
Another fear health experts have is that China ? which, according to WHO data, has had 30 cases of avian flu, 20 of which have been fatal, since 2003 ? may not be sharing all its flu data with the rest of the world because it's hosting the Olympics later this summer, Laker said.
"What's kind of scary is people don't have enough information to make a scientific determination," he said.
Pryde takes some comfort in knowing Champaign County would be among the better-prepared communities for a pandemic, at least from a public health standpoint. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chose her department to be one of two national pilot sites for pandemic flu preparedness planning, she said, and dozens of representatives from local health care and government organizations took part in a planning workshop earlier this year with people from Winston-Salem, N.C.
With at least three relatives who died in the 1918 pandemic, Urbana Mayor Laurel Prussing said she doesn't discount the warnings about a pandemic ? but she isn't much of a stockpiler at home, either.
"I might be ready for an ice storm, but I don't think I'm ready for the big flu pandemic," she said.
On the other hand, Prussing said, she didn't know the world was on level-three pandemic alert. So it's probably a good idea to stock up, she adds, and be sure to turn over your supplies regularly and replace what you use.
"There are so many things to be alarmed about, you can drive yourself nuts," Prussing said. "But I think I will look at my cupboards."
Flu pandemic is only a matter of time, officials say
By Debra Pressey
Sunday, May 25, 2008 9:14 AM CDT
CHAMPAIGN ? Is there a little Emily Litella voice in your head that keeps wanting to ask: What's all this I hear about a panda epidemic?
Why do people keep saying the pandas are going to make us sick?
We don't even have pandas here. ...
Of course, we all know that's a pandemic we're being warned about.
Some of us are even vaguely aware that we're supposed to be stockpiling extra food and medicines in case a pandemic flu virus confines us to our homes for a while.
But are we paying any attention?
Julie Pryde displays the components of a pandemic flu kit along with a sample of her flu-related books Monday in her office at C-U Public Health District in Champaign. By Heather Coit
Heck, no.
"We're having so much difficulty getting the word out that a pandemic is inevitable," said Julie Pryde, acting director of the Champaign-Urbana Public Health District.
She and her staff are making themselves available to talk to any community group that asks about preparing for a pandemic.
They've offered to share their be-prepared plan with any city that wants it.
But even many of those who listen aren't taking warnings seriously to stock up on supplies, she says. People seem to think the government will save them and the stores will never close.
"People just can't grasp the fact that they're not going to be able to run to the store, and things may not be there when they do," Pryde said.
What's a pandemic?
For those who haven't been paying much attention, a pandemic influenza is a flu epidemic of epic proportions: It's a widespread outbreak of a new virus to which people have had no exposure ? and therefore have no immunity.
If you like weather analogies, think more along the lines of a hurricane rather than a spring shower.
There were three pandemics in the last century: in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic was the least severe, causing 34,000 deaths in the U.S.
The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic was the most deadly, believed to have caused at least 500,000 deaths in the U.S. and up to 40 million deaths worldwide, according to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data.
For the past several years, health organizations have been monitoring the progress of avian (bird) influenza that has already taken a human toll in parts of the world. As of April 30, there have been 382 confirmed human cases resulting in 241 deaths since 2003, according to the World Health Organization.
Under the WHO's six-level pandemic influenza alert system, the world is currently at level three, meaning a new influenza virus subtype has been identified and is causing diseases in people, but isn't spreading efficiently from person to person.
So why start preparing now? Because health experts know viruses can change and spread rapidly.
And while there's no guarantee that will happen with avian flu, Pryde said, the next level on the alert system could escalate to a full-scale pandemic level six in a matter of just days or weeks.
"That's what's so hard to get people to understand," she said.
Recent history
The nasty flu season of 2007-08 was a sample of how fast a virus mutation can occur, Vermilion County Health Department Administrator Steve Laker said.
The vaccine developed for this past flu season failed to cover one or more of the strains that evolved, so even many of those who got flu shots were sick.
Another factor to keep in mind: It will be months, maybe up to a year, before a vaccine would be widely available for use for an avian flu pandemic, Laker said.
Illinois has invested $10 million to build up a supply of two anti-viral medications that can reduce the severity and duration of some flu cases, according to Melaney Arnold, spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Public Health.
The avian flu virus has proven to be resistant to those medicines, but they'd be in need if the next pandemic isn't avian flu. And that's something people need to keep in mind, Arnold said: The next pandemic might be another flu strain entirely.
In all, state public health has invested just over $27 million, more than half of which has been federal funding, on pandemic flu planning in the last three years, according to Arnold.
Given the potential for the next pandemic to be avian flu, some of the planning centers on using non-drug remedies such as "social distancing," the lingo for shutting down public places and asking people to stay home to minimize the spread of infection.
To help avoid the hardships that could cause, the C-U Public Health District has been promoting an at-home preparedness program it calls "Stock Two for Flu," which urges people to pick up an extra two items each time they go to the store until they have enough supplies on hand to last them two weeks.
But Pryde said about 90 percent of the people she meets aren't taking any precautions.
"We know people aren't prepared, because we ask everywhere we go," she adds.
Laker said the Vermilion County Health Department hasn't started urging people to stock up for a pandemic flu yet, because it's farther behind on pandemic planning due to budget constraints.
But it doesn't surprise him if people are being rather blase about the whole thing, he says, because that's just human nature.
"Events aren't real until they're real to most people," he said.
There's also the possibility that some people aren't stocking up because they can't afford to, Laker said.
"There are people who are having difficulty keeping food on their table week to week, let alone stockpile," he said.
What's the worry?
Is Laker concerned about the next pandemic? Put it this way: One of the most frightening books he's read in the last decade or two was "The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History" by John M. Barry, he said. And he's got extra copies circulating through his department that he's asked people to read when they get a chance.
What concerns him a lot, Laker said, is that even with all of today's technological advances, people may be less prepared to deal with a pandemic now than they were back in 1918, because Americans were still in a war mode then. They had things like gardens and pantries.
Another fear health experts have is that China ? which, according to WHO data, has had 30 cases of avian flu, 20 of which have been fatal, since 2003 ? may not be sharing all its flu data with the rest of the world because it's hosting the Olympics later this summer, Laker said.
"What's kind of scary is people don't have enough information to make a scientific determination," he said.
Pryde takes some comfort in knowing Champaign County would be among the better-prepared communities for a pandemic, at least from a public health standpoint. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention chose her department to be one of two national pilot sites for pandemic flu preparedness planning, she said, and dozens of representatives from local health care and government organizations took part in a planning workshop earlier this year with people from Winston-Salem, N.C.
With at least three relatives who died in the 1918 pandemic, Urbana Mayor Laurel Prussing said she doesn't discount the warnings about a pandemic ? but she isn't much of a stockpiler at home, either.
"I might be ready for an ice storm, but I don't think I'm ready for the big flu pandemic," she said.
On the other hand, Prussing said, she didn't know the world was on level-three pandemic alert. So it's probably a good idea to stock up, she adds, and be sure to turn over your supplies regularly and replace what you use.
"There are so many things to be alarmed about, you can drive yourself nuts," Prussing said. "But I think I will look at my cupboards."
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