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US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

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  • US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

    At CDC, FluWiki:

    Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic

    http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/14/3/pdfs/07-0673.pdf
    Attached Files

  • #2
    Re: US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

    18 pages .pdf, hard to get the meat out of it.

    who will write a summary, so not every FT-reader has to digest the whole paper ?
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

      Originally posted by gsgs View Post
      18 pages .pdf, hard to get the meat out of it.

      who will write a summary, so not every FT-reader has to digest the whole paper ?
      I will, without reading all of it.
      Social distancing, washing procedures, etc., will mitigate the live loses of the communites (with graphical representations inserted) when no vaccines, and antivirals will be at hands.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

        how much ?

        OK, I looked at figure 4. In an unmitigated severe pandemic about 60% of the population is infected.
        With 90% compliance and 60 days of "community sequestering" this can be reduced to 4%.

        Is it believable, is it realistic ?
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

          Originally posted by gsgs View Post
          how much ?
          Well, for that you must analyse the numeric graph results sited in the document tables.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

            OK, I looked at figure 4. In an unmitigated severe pandemic about 60% of the population is infected.
            With 90% compliance and 60 days of "community sequestering" this can be reduced to 4%.

            Is it believable, is it realistic ?


            even if it worked - if only 4% of people are infected, then there is not much
            immunity. But the virus is still around in the world.

            If it is seasonal, then it will strike the next season again - when hopefully
            the people had got vaccine.
            But in a severe pandemic there can be waves, non-seasonal.
            This sequestering will probably have to continue until there is vaccine.
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: US_Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic_08

              Is it believable, is it realistic ?

              Probably (in the first 6 months) the only thing the masses will got.

              This sequestering will probably have to continue until there is vaccine.

              Or until the sequestered have what to eat, and drink ...

              Comment

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