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Expert: Prepare for a pandemic
By CHRISTINA KRISTOFIC
The Intelligencer
It's not a question of if an influenza pandemic will hit the United States.
It's a question of when and where it will begin and how it will spread, said Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
?I know it will happen, and I worry desperately that we're not going to be ready,? he told doctors and other health-care professionals during a recent visit to Abington Memorial Hospital. ?The 38,000 to 50,000 people who die annually from flu is nothing compared to a pandemic.?
Osterholm also is the associate director of the National Center for Food Protection and Defense, a professor at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health and the author of ?Living Terrors: What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe.? He was appointed in June 2005 to the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
Osterholm worked for 24 years for the Minnesota Department of Health, where he led investigations of food-borne diseases, toxic shock syndrome, and the transmission of hepatitis B and HIV infection in health-care workers.
He called the influenza pandemic the most important medical issue he's investigated.
Dr. John Kelly, an infectious disease specialist and Abington Memorial Hospital's chief of staff, said he is aware of the possibility of a flu pandemic in the nation. Hospital staff members took the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, outbreak as a wake-up call, and they have been continually working on a disaster plan, he said.
There have been 10 influenza pandemics in the last 300 years about 24 years apart, Osterholm said. The last flu pandemic to hit the United States was in 1968.
Osterholm said the next pandemic will likely start in birds in Asia, travel quickly and cause global repercussions.
Because human vaccine technology is the same as it was in the 1950s, and it takes about six months to make and distribute the vaccine, a first and second wave of an influenza virus could easily come and go before people could be vaccinated, Osterholm said.
Everyone will be at risk of infection, and all businesses, major industries and political bodies will be affected. The nation is more vulnerable than ever before because of the current ?global just-in-time economy? world that has food and supplies arriving in stores just as they're needed, Osterholm said.
During his speech, he asked the audience to imagine the results of an infection among oil drillers. They wouldn't be able to work, meaning less or no oil for transportation, which would stop the movement of food and supplies and oil for heat. Schools and other institutions would be forced to close. Governments would not have chlorine, a petroleum byproduct, to cleanse their water supplies and people could be infected by waterborne bacteria and viruses.
?Imagine a 12- to 18-month global blizzard,? Osterholm said.
Everyone will suffer from an influenza pandemic, and the response will have to be mostly local.
Abington Memorial Hospital is capable of standing without outside assistance for a limited time, Kelly said.
?There's always the expectation that the outside world will be able to help us. If the entire country is in the same predicament, there won't be anybody coming to help,? he said. ?And it's not possible for any institution to have three months worth of food, three months worth of medicines, three months worth of oxygen.?
The hospital would be able to take care of the ?sickest of the sick,? Kelly said. ?The others could be taken care of ? I know we would be aghast at this ? in high school gymnasiums.?
Osterholm said he knows many communities ?hear about this and feel overwhelmed and would rather not hear anymore.?
But, he added, they need to hear about a flu pandemic so they can look at it realistically and prepare.
Osterholm said it helps to imagine that it has already happened or it is already happening, and think backward.
?You can be prepared for bioterrorism or a natural catastrophe, but that doesn't prepare you for this,? Osterholm said. ?I'll tell you, if you're prepared for pandemic flu, you're prepared for everything.?
November 13, 2006 9:51 AM
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/ne...06-741123.html
By CHRISTINA KRISTOFIC
The Intelligencer
It's not a question of if an influenza pandemic will hit the United States.
It's a question of when and where it will begin and how it will spread, said Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
?I know it will happen, and I worry desperately that we're not going to be ready,? he told doctors and other health-care professionals during a recent visit to Abington Memorial Hospital. ?The 38,000 to 50,000 people who die annually from flu is nothing compared to a pandemic.?
Osterholm also is the associate director of the National Center for Food Protection and Defense, a professor at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health and the author of ?Living Terrors: What America Needs to Know to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist Catastrophe.? He was appointed in June 2005 to the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
Osterholm worked for 24 years for the Minnesota Department of Health, where he led investigations of food-borne diseases, toxic shock syndrome, and the transmission of hepatitis B and HIV infection in health-care workers.
He called the influenza pandemic the most important medical issue he's investigated.
Dr. John Kelly, an infectious disease specialist and Abington Memorial Hospital's chief of staff, said he is aware of the possibility of a flu pandemic in the nation. Hospital staff members took the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, outbreak as a wake-up call, and they have been continually working on a disaster plan, he said.
There have been 10 influenza pandemics in the last 300 years about 24 years apart, Osterholm said. The last flu pandemic to hit the United States was in 1968.
Osterholm said the next pandemic will likely start in birds in Asia, travel quickly and cause global repercussions.
Because human vaccine technology is the same as it was in the 1950s, and it takes about six months to make and distribute the vaccine, a first and second wave of an influenza virus could easily come and go before people could be vaccinated, Osterholm said.
Everyone will be at risk of infection, and all businesses, major industries and political bodies will be affected. The nation is more vulnerable than ever before because of the current ?global just-in-time economy? world that has food and supplies arriving in stores just as they're needed, Osterholm said.
During his speech, he asked the audience to imagine the results of an infection among oil drillers. They wouldn't be able to work, meaning less or no oil for transportation, which would stop the movement of food and supplies and oil for heat. Schools and other institutions would be forced to close. Governments would not have chlorine, a petroleum byproduct, to cleanse their water supplies and people could be infected by waterborne bacteria and viruses.
?Imagine a 12- to 18-month global blizzard,? Osterholm said.
Everyone will suffer from an influenza pandemic, and the response will have to be mostly local.
Abington Memorial Hospital is capable of standing without outside assistance for a limited time, Kelly said.
?There's always the expectation that the outside world will be able to help us. If the entire country is in the same predicament, there won't be anybody coming to help,? he said. ?And it's not possible for any institution to have three months worth of food, three months worth of medicines, three months worth of oxygen.?
The hospital would be able to take care of the ?sickest of the sick,? Kelly said. ?The others could be taken care of ? I know we would be aghast at this ? in high school gymnasiums.?
Osterholm said he knows many communities ?hear about this and feel overwhelmed and would rather not hear anymore.?
But, he added, they need to hear about a flu pandemic so they can look at it realistically and prepare.
Osterholm said it helps to imagine that it has already happened or it is already happening, and think backward.
?You can be prepared for bioterrorism or a natural catastrophe, but that doesn't prepare you for this,? Osterholm said. ?I'll tell you, if you're prepared for pandemic flu, you're prepared for everything.?
November 13, 2006 9:51 AM
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/ne...06-741123.html
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