WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

[HenryN]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

It is WHO statements like this, in respect of virus' resistance to Oseltamivir, that are devoid of credibility. Given the FACT of rapid, silent, ubuquitous spread of H274Y in human (seasonal) H1N1 (in a little over 12 months 2007/08) and a very similar pattern now emerging in swine H1N1 - statements such as the above suggest it is the WHO that lack credibility.

World Health Organisation or the Roche World Marketing Department?

Unfortunately, many are addicted to Tamiflu and in an obvious state of denial.

[tropical]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

"Tamiflu addiction"

I don't see many options for the masses out there ...

Maybe apart the vitamins and prayers, or waiting several years to new drugs, to take soap filled capsules or vaccines ...

[gsgs]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

I don't see any evidence either.

And I don't like the way how he presents his theory.

Not on his webpage with links and data and discussion-forum,
but rather in talkshows, letters to WHO, submissions to journals
(=delayed publishing)

Is he just trying to make money from this ?



the strangest thing about the origin are the South Dakota birds with the
preserved sequences for 9 years .
Strange also the only 2 mutations in 4487
by mid April, while e.g. the Cancun-strain had 11

[Emily]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

I'm thinking he just might be 'old school' about communications.

But very credible as a scientist even if there is debate about the lab strain issue.

http://www.socgenmicrobiol.org.uk/pubs/micro_today/book_reviews/QRMAY96/QRM96_24.cfm

Molecular basis of virus evolution By Adrian J. Gibbs, Charles H. Calisher, Fernando García-Arenal

You can see here how intensively this PRRSV is being studied. I've read that its setting the stage for a 'biological train wreck.' It's gotten really nasty in the last few years. I wonder if co-infection with influenza could make the SIV mutate faster than expected, or in patterns not seen before?

http://www.pork.org/PorkScience/Documents/RFLPAnalysis.pdf

Abstract
The accuracy of the ORF5 RFLP test developed to distinguish RespPRRS® from field isolates was examined through the use of our database of 175 sequenced PRRSV strains. We found several strains which would have an RFLP profile consistent with vaccine origin, but appeared to be substantially different from vaccine on the amino acid level. In addition, we
studied whether or not dual infections of swine could lead to accelerated PRRSV evolution by first testing whether or not recombination occurred when two vaccine strains were coinfected into an established cell line. We obtained evidence that recombination does occur under these
conditions, and also provided genetic evidence of in vivo recombination.

[Emily]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

Some Chinese epidemiologists have weighed in on this topic:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/7108ln14693gk29j/fulltext.pdf

"Origin and future distribution of the new A (H1N1)
influenza virus emerging in North America in 2009
CHEN JiMing, SUN YingXue, LIU Shuo, JIANG WenMing, CHEN Jie, HOU GuangYu & LI JinPing
China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, China
....
In addition, the above inference and other information
available now could not exclude the possibility that the
current new A (H1N1) influenza virus came from a laboratory,
as in many laboratories in multiple countries, it
is not that difficult to generate such a new virus using
the technique of reverse-genetics from tubes without
clear manmade signs[13]."

[tropical]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

Now we have a more today's reality scientific research balanced aproach:

#20:"to generate ... without clear manmade signs[13]"

Some Chinese epidemiologists have weighed in on this topic:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/7108ln14693gk29j/fulltext.pdf

"Origin and future distribution of the new A (H1N1)
influenza virus emerging in North America in 2009
CHEN JiMing, SUN YingXue, LIU Shuo, JIANG WenMing, CHEN Jie, HOU GuangYu & LI JinPing
China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, China
....
In addition, the above inference and other information
available now could not exclude the possibility that the
current new A (H1N1) influenza virus came from a laboratory,
as in many laboratories in multiple countries, it
is not that difficult to generate such a new virus using
the technique of reverse-genetics from tubes without
clear manmade signs[13]."

[Hogweed]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

Some Chinese epidemiologists have weighed in on this topic:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/7108ln14693gk29j/fulltext.pdf

"Origin and future distribution of the new A (H1N1)
influenza virus emerging in North America in 2009
CHEN JiMing, SUN YingXue, LIU Shuo, JIANG WenMing, CHEN Jie, HOU GuangYu & LI JinPing
China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center, Qingdao 266032, China
....
In addition, the above inference and other information
available now could not exclude the possibility that the
current new A (H1N1) influenza virus came from a laboratory,
as in many laboratories in multiple countries, it
is not that difficult to generate such a new virus using
the technique of reverse-genetics from tubes without
clear manmade signs[13]."

The highlighted text (man-made virus) though was not thought probable by the authors as the evolution of the current strain can be explained naturally without any need for human intervention as they explain in detail. It's just that they point out that a lab helping the process cannot be entirely excluded. But that's just a statement of scientific fact (because we know how to do it) which they included for completeness.

[gsgs]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

it's manmade in the sense that our dramatic increase in hogfarming in the last decades supported this to happen

[tropical]

Re: WHO rejects idea that novel H1N1 virus is lab-derived

The highlighted text (man-made virus) though was not thought probable by the authors as the evolution of the current strain can be explained naturally without any need for human intervention as they explain in detail. It's just that they point out that a lab helping the process cannot be entirely excluded. But that's just a statement of scientific fact (because we know how to do it) which they included for completeness.

Seems more that the authors pdf text depicts an real possibility of labs creations which infected the pigs - lab infection of pigs maybe.

So the pandemic variant was passed further from pigs to humans.

___

The cited (enlarged) excerpt from the Chinese epidemiologists study pdf doc stated (transcription)

http://www.springerlink.com/content/7108ln14693gk29j/fulltext.pdf

Page 4
...
From these conclusions, we could further infer that it was possible
that the current new A (H1N1) influenza virus came from a pig population in North America.
In addition, the above inference and other information
available now could not exclude the possibility that the
current new A (H1N1) influenza virus came from a laboratory,
as in many laboratories in multiple countries, it is not that difficult to generate such a new virus using the technique of reverse-genetics from tubes without clear manmade signs[13].
...
Therefore, it could be concluded that the virus will further spread more widely in the world, and more human cases will be imported to many countries including the ones having found imported cases, as the airplane shuttles to and from these countries of high risk largely remain unchanged.
...
The persons infected with the virus without symptoms or in the incubation period posed a high risk for the disease transmission among humans.
...
The current new A (H1N1) influenza virus will persist for years in human populations because: ...
...
Some mutations were identified in the genomic sequences
of the current new A (H1N1) influenza virus
isolated in different countries including S220T in the
viral HA gene. It is of high possibility that the virus will
keep rapid mutation rates during its spreading in human
populations in the world, and consequently, its adaptability
to humans could be increased[5,15]. Therefore, in
the future, the virus will be mainly maintained by humans.
In other words, the virus will mainly circulate in
human populations.
___


From the above we can clearly see the importance of the unchanged airplane travel policy as an important vector for the illness dissemination from the high affected (rooted) countries, to other smalll afected.

Also, it is visible the high risk danger from asymptomatic or incubated persons for the disease transmission, which clearly represent a scientific base for preventive school closures during the wave, to cut the infections chains there.

And "dulcis in fundo" - this chimera it will keep rapid mutation rates in humans, and it will persist for years!