Horizon, BBC2 7 Nov: Update

[Vibrant62]

Horizon is a well regarded documentary programme that ran a look at pandemic flu this evening, and projected an outbreak.

I have to say, it was hard hitting, pulled no punches and didn't play down any aspect. Furthermore, the take home message was for UK citizens to prepare. A case study was run on the US.

Can be watched here. http://www.bbc.co.uk/horizon/

A couple of curious inaccuracies however, when you consider how accurate everything else was.

[JJackson]

BBC Birdflu Drama Docu. (Horizon) Viewable.

BBC2 UK TV aired a 'what if' H5N1 pandemic scenario intercut with interviews.

The full program can be watched as a video stream here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/broadband/mediaplayer/players/bbc2/bb_rm_console.shtml?package=4588190&nbram=1&bbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1#

(If the link does not work try BBC home page, then BBC2 and look for Horizon)

The program does not pull many puches but did lack detail. It would also leave some people, with no previous knowledge, with a few misconception (e.g. the virus emerged in 2005 at Qinghai Lake). On balance it is worth watching if for no other reason than that it, and other MSM output, is all most people have to try and base a response on.

[Niko]

Re: Horizon, BBC2 - Flu hysteria is strictly for the birds (comment on TV show)

Not a resident of the U.K.? Forget about watching the program online. After over a hour of trying, I finally found out that the full program that aired on BBC2 is only accessible to UK residents.

[Niko]

Re: Horizon, BBC2 7 Nov: Update

Article on BBC online regarding the show:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6123156.stm

Are we ready for pandemic flu?
How will the world cope if the H5N1 bird flu virus mutates and a humanised strain materialises?

Many scientists believe this is an almost certain event. It is not if, it is when. Are we prepared? Who will be saved? Is this a 21st Century plague?

In a 90-minute docu-drama, BBC Two's Horizon programme paints an apocalyptic vision of the future, portraying the horror of a modern-day influenza pandemic in terrifying detail.

The film shows the latest developments in flu research and reveals the US government is asking its citizens to stockpile medicines and food in preparation for an outbreak.

The British government's Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan paints a scenario of up to three-quarters of a million British deaths. The US is predicting close to two million fatalities.

Horizon tells the story of how a pandemic could unfold.

Cities silent

It predicts hospitals and emergency services will be overwhelmed, with insufficient capacity to dispose of the bodies of those who die.

The world's once busy cities will lie eerily silent. A quarter of the workforce will be absent. Public transport will all but disappear, schools will close and public gatherings will be banned.

This vision is not science fiction. It is based on the latest scientific research, which forms the basis for government policy across the globe. Contingency plans for pandemic flu predict millions of deaths, economic meltdown and society in chaos.

The public perception is that only the elderly and weakest members of society die from influenza. But a devastating flu pandemic may target people in the prime of life - the 20 to 40 age range.

We can only vaccinate about 600 million people from every six months of global production
Prof Peter Dunnill

If a virus does arrive, it will take five to six months to produce a working vaccine.

Professor Peter Dunnill, of University College London, says: "The amount of pandemic vaccine that we produce globally is quite small.

"We can only vaccinate about 600 million people from every six months of global production. To put that in perspective, that's about 9% of the global population."

At present, government plans talk of the need to manage public expectation and list key workers who will qualify for early vaccination.

The final order of priority has yet to be confirmed - deciding who goes where on the list will not be a task for the faint-hearted.

It has been suggested that the elderly and very young should be denied vaccine until after all other groups have been vaccinated because they have either had a full life, or have not been invested in.

Difficult decisions

Prof Dunnill says: "You have to give vaccine to frontline medical staff, because they're going to be face-to-face with the people who are plainly infected.

"But if you get to a situation where you have to make decisions within the public, it's much more difficult. Scientists have suggested that two-year-olds may not be people that have high priority because, as yet, there hasn't been a sizeable investment.

"Now those are brutal decisions but people are having to think in those sorts of terms."

Prof Dunnill also questions the effectiveness of anti-viral drug Tamiflu.

"At the present time, of course, Tamiflu is used for ordinary flu and we know that even there it has to be used quickly to be effective.

"What we don't know is what would happen with H5N1. The present evidence coming from Vietnam and Indonesia and countries like that is not particularly good but of course, a lot of the patients are travelling considerable distances before they're treated.

"We still don't have evidence of any real detail on the effect when Tamiflu is given very quickly."

The H5N1 virus bears a striking resemblance to the influenza pandemic that struck after the First World War, killing 50 million people.

The H5N1 virus has an extra piece of genetic code that some scientists say makes it much more deadly than 1918 virus.

Pandemic will be shown on BBC Two on 7 November at 2100 GMT as part of the Horizon series.

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/uk_news/6123156.stm

Published: 2006/11/07 02:04:03 GMT

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Horizon, BBC2 7 Nov: Update

Guardian's comments - taken from mid-aricle....
Last night's TV

Sam Wollaston
Wednesday November 8, 2006

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Not even The Unit will be able to save the world from an avian flu pandemic, subject of Horizon (BBC2), when it hits. Which it will - it's a question of when, not if. And when it does, the world will be brought to its knees. Billions across the globe will perish, economies will be crippled, work forces decimated - the only job left will be making body-bags. And it gets worse - all premiership football matches will be cancelled. Society will go into total meltdown. Nature's bioterrorism, it seems, is even more scary than those Iranians with their heavy water.

Somewhere in here was an interesting 40-minute documentary. We learned how quickly a mutated strain can develop, how it will breach all attempts to contain it, and what happens to our bodies when it hits (not good). We were told of the possibility of an outbreak of Encephalitis lethargica (also not good) straight after the flu pandemic, which is what happened in 1918.

All the science was good, but this interesting documentary had been padded out to 90 minutes with some lame dramatisation. We met Eve Chhun, a migrant labourer in the far east, taking the virus from his small village in Cambodia; and young Lori Peterson in America, making a tearful web diary about her dying brother, to piano accompaniment: "He's not so great. Everyone keeps saying he's going to be fine, but I'm not so sure."

We were even allowed to attend the funeral of Tania Edwards in London. These scenes and characters didn't mean anything - they came and went, weren't developed, and added nothing. It's not even reconstruction, because it's about something that hasn't happened. Preconstruction then, a new horror. And judging by some of the dialogue, I'm pretty sure David Mamet didn't have anything to do with it.
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