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"Worst case" bird flu pandemic underestimated: RMS
Tue May 2, 2:26 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Many companies are underestimating just how bad a bird flu epidemic could be, said Risk Management Solutions, which provides catastrophe risk management services.
The Newark, California risk modeler said many studies were using the 1918 influenza epidemic as their worst case scenario. That had a mortality of 0.67 percent in the United States-- or about 700,000 of the 105 million people who lived then. A similar epidemic now would kill just under two million.
An analysis of virology shows that more severe pandemics are possible and there is a one-in-five chance of a pandemic more severe than 1918, RMS said.
A new RMS study quantifies not only the severity of a pandemic, but also the likelihood of it occurring, and such factors as infectiousness and lethality of the pandemic, demographic impact, country of outbreak, vaccine production and countermeasures.
"Pandemic influenza could potentially deal insurers a triple whammy, causing unprecedented life and health claims losses, investment portfolio downturns and reduced staff through the spreading of sickness among company personnel," said Dr. Andrew Coburn, RMS project lead on influenza pandemic risk modeling.
He said such a pandemic could last two to three years, making it essential for insurers to put in place a multi-year risk management strategy that considers the possibility that reinsurance would not be able to cover all the losses.
RMS will present its new model at a seminar on June 1 in New York City.
To date, there have not been any cases of transmission of the virus from person to person. Human cases have been contracted through contact with birds.
Risk Management Solutions:
Tue May 2, 2:26 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Many companies are underestimating just how bad a bird flu epidemic could be, said Risk Management Solutions, which provides catastrophe risk management services.
The Newark, California risk modeler said many studies were using the 1918 influenza epidemic as their worst case scenario. That had a mortality of 0.67 percent in the United States-- or about 700,000 of the 105 million people who lived then. A similar epidemic now would kill just under two million.
An analysis of virology shows that more severe pandemics are possible and there is a one-in-five chance of a pandemic more severe than 1918, RMS said.
A new RMS study quantifies not only the severity of a pandemic, but also the likelihood of it occurring, and such factors as infectiousness and lethality of the pandemic, demographic impact, country of outbreak, vaccine production and countermeasures.
"Pandemic influenza could potentially deal insurers a triple whammy, causing unprecedented life and health claims losses, investment portfolio downturns and reduced staff through the spreading of sickness among company personnel," said Dr. Andrew Coburn, RMS project lead on influenza pandemic risk modeling.
He said such a pandemic could last two to three years, making it essential for insurers to put in place a multi-year risk management strategy that considers the possibility that reinsurance would not be able to cover all the losses.
RMS will present its new model at a seminar on June 1 in New York City.
To date, there have not been any cases of transmission of the virus from person to person. Human cases have been contracted through contact with birds.
Risk Management Solutions:
Which why it's so hard (impossible!) to find unbiased info out there. Microbix? On their landing page it says their business is "Biotechnologies for Healthcare and Industry." I dunno what their opinion on how severe a pandemic could be is, but I bet it's not a pretty one. (Also, their "Global Outbreak Status Hot Link" goes to the WHO's avian influenza pages.... No comment. 
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