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  • Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports

    http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakin...&n=152397602&x=
    Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports :: latest

    Human bird flu deaths in Indonesia have slowed markedly over the last three months, a drop local officials attributed today to a more aggressive fight against the virus.

    But the World Health Organisation cautioned that the fall ? a rare piece of good news in the country worst hit by the H5N1 virus ? did not yet indicate a trend and refused to speculate on possible reasons for it.

    Health Minister Siti Fadillah said the success was due to a more forceful vaccination and culling policy which led the government to recently declare 14 of its 33 provinces free of the virus in poultry stocks.

    She also cited an ongoing public education campaign.

    ?The drop in cases is because of the success of the government ? which is now unified and moving quickly,? she said. ?If the birds are free of the virus, so are humans.?

    The virulent H5N1 form of bird flu began devastating Asian poultry stocks in 2003, but Indonesia did not record its first human case until two years later. Its number of cases quickly soared, and it has now logged 74 human infections, 57 of them fatal.

    International experts have accused the country of not doing enough to tackle the virus, which experts fear may mutate into a form that could spread easily between humans and potentially kill millions globally.

    ?I thank God that the cases are going down, but we cannot celebrate yet,? said Nyoman Kandun, director-general of communicable disease control at the health ministry, adding it would take at least three more months of declining cases to start believing it may be permanent.

    Vietnam, the second worst-hit country by the virus, has not reported any human infections since November 2005, although this week it reported its first outbreak in poultry in a year. Thailand has reported three human fatalities this year, while China?s last reported case was in July.

    Later, a South Korean agriculture ministry official announced plans to cull tens of thousands of poultry after a new outbreak of the bird flu virus.

    The outbreak ? the fourth bird flu case in a month in the country ? was caused by a ?highly pathogenic? type of bird flu but it remains unclear whether it is the virulent H5N1 virus.

  • #2
    Re: Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports

    I am just a little skeptical about the accuracy of this article.

    As we have seen suspected cases continue only a daily basis in Indonesia, it is just the number of confirmed cases that seems to be dropping.


    This statement here shows how much stock you can put into an article like this:
    ?If the birds are free of the virus, so are humans.?

    What about the cats, dogs, and pigs...oh my.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports

      inI notice that line, too.

      Birds are free of avian flu;hence, people will be free of it too.

      Yeah, I guess the logic works---if the primary concern is avian flu.

      It's not. H2H flu (for want of some more accurate nomeclature) is the primary concern.

      Declining human cases of avian flu is good news.

      Yes, but it's still perpetuates the fallacy that avian flu is the main threat.

      Continued aggresive culling, vaccination, and clean-up is better news. Declining probability of conditions suitable for H2H flu development is what we need to hear in re-assuring statements and articles, IMO.

      Similarly, Vietnam's poultry outbreak is very bad news, not a mere filler item, because it indicates an increased chance of H2H flu development.

      As morally reprehensible as it may sound, I'm more concerned about the number of bird outbreaks (and other determinants of H2H development) than human case numbers at the moment.

      J.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports

        Well, take a look at what Dutchy just posted about Aceh in Indonesia.

        They just reported more outbreaks in birds.

        You know this has been a constant, whenever a country makes an announcement about how they are either bird flu free or bird flu is in decline. Then all the sudden, boom, back comes bird flu.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports

          Sorry, I'm not very good navigating this forum, Jeremy. I think your point is that avian outbreaks in Indonesia are increasing at a dramatic rate, thereby increasing the change for H2H development.

          How do we quantify the rate of change, incidence of avian flu, or the increasing probabilty of conditions conducive to H2H? If we agree that H2H is the primary concern, what statistic, map or tool should be used by risk communicators to help keep the public on track?

          The WHO map on avian outbreaks in the last 6 months doesn't tell us anything about incremental changes, or at least, I couldn't find a comparable map for 2005.



          And does it even make sense to look at this on a politcal map? Wild birds don't carry passports. Free range chickens are not in every area of China and Indonesia (hopefully) Aren't we geographically correlating avian flu incidence, flyways and human economic gradient, without regard to nationality?


          J.

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          • #6
            Re: Decline in bird flu cases, Indonesia reports

            ?If the birds are free of the virus, so are humans.?


            Do they consider the birds disease-free because they're not dying?

            If they're not dying because of vaccination, they can still SHED the virus, so I wouldn't say they're free unless they are tested.

            And they aren't differentiating between the avian Indo H5 and the Mammalian Indo H5 (RESRRKKR).

            However, culling and public education are definately the right move.

            .
            "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

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