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**Snowy Owl** · December 4, 2006, 11:00 AM

For Medicine Woman and Man and Health Care Workers please take knowledge of the following.

There are many hints and tips

IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | Page not found

http://iri.columbia.edu/impact/project/dengue/

Home -> Impacts -> Projects -> Dengue Early-warning

<center>
A dengue early-warning system</center>
Background information on dengue/DHF:
The World Health Organization considers dengue to be the most important vector-borne viral disease, potentially affecting 2.5 billion people in more than 100 tropical and sub-tropical countries throughout the world (View geographic distribution). Current estimates suggest that up to 50 to 100 million dengue cases occur annually, in addition to 500,000 cases of the more serious dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). DHF has a 5% case-fatality rate in many countries, with most fatalities occurring among children and young adults. The principal vector for dengue is the Aedes aegypti mosquito.

Symptoms of dengue/DHF:
Classical dengue fever, also known as breakbone fever, is characterized by a sudden onset of fever, headache, sore muscles and joints, with occasional nausea/vomiting and rash; these symptoms may persist for several days. Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a much more serious illness mainly affecting children and young adults and is a leading cause of childhood mortality in several Asian countries. Symptoms include a sudden onset of fever and hemorrhagic manifestations that result in significant fluid loss and may lead to shock--dengue shock syndrome. Five percent of DHF cases are fatal. A prior infection with one of the four dengue viruses results in a greater probability of contracting DHF.

Humans acquire dengue viruses from bites of infective female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes; the mosquitoes become infected, and remain so for the rest of their life, by feeding on infected human blood. An infected person has the virus circulating in them for 2-7 days, about the time he/she experiences fever. It is during this period of time that the mosquito may acquire the dengue virus through blood feeding or probing. The blood meal provides essential proteins for the female?s developing eggs.
No vaccine currently exists for dengue and it may be several years before one is available due to the difficulty in developing one vaccine effective against all four dengue viruses. It is essential that the vaccine protect against all four viruses because vaccination against only one or two could potentially increase the risk of more serious illness for people exposed to one of the other viruses. The dengue virus is a single-stranded RNA virus, polyhedral in shape, referred to as a ?flavivirus?, from the Family Flaviviridae and Genus Flavivirus. The yellow fever virus is also a Flavivirus.

History of dengue/DHF:
The earliest reports of dengue fever epidemics date back to 1779-1780 in Asia, Africa and North America, indicating a widespread tropical distribution of Ae. aegypti during the past 200 years. After World War II, a global dengue pandemic began in Southeast Asia. This pandemic intensified in the Americas during the 1980s with outbreaks in Caribbean and Latin American countries including Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, French Guiana, Suriname, and Puerto Rico. More recently, outbreaks of dengue have occurred in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Southeast Asia and in the western Pacific, including Vietnam, Singapore, Cambodia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Fiji. Prior to 1970, DHF epidemics had occurred in 9 countries in the world; by 1995 that number increased more than four-fold.

History of dengue/DHF in the Americas:
The reemergence of dengue in the Americas has renewed current interest in this disease. The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the principal vector of dengue. During the 1950s and 1960s, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) directed Ae. aegypti eradication programs, eliminating the mosquito from most of Central and South America. After the United States officially ended its eradication program in 1970, however, other nations discontinued their programs. This resulted in the reinfestation of the mosquito in many countries (Figure 1: Distribution of Ae. aegypti (shaded areas) in the Americas in 1970, at the end of the mosquito

eradication program, and in 1995. Figure 2. Countries with laboratory-confirmed dengue hemorrhagic fever (shaded areas) before 1981 and from 1981 to 1995). As a possible consequence of the reinfestation, Cuba experienced an unprecedented 344,000 cases of dengue and DHF in 1981. Since then, the number of cases in the Americas has been steadily rising over the years. In 1998, there were more than 616,000 reported cases of dengue in the Americas, including 11,000 DHF cases. Most of these cases (475,000) occurred in Brazil between January and October 1998. The numbers in Brazil represent more cases than were reported for the entire continent in previous years.

Mosquito Model Description:
The modeling focuses on the global-scale relationships between climate and the development, population dynamics, and potential distribution of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Our mosquito model runs on a daily timestep, across a 1 degree by 1 degree (~100 km per side) resolution global grid. Using cohorts to track the abundance (a function of survivorship), age, and development of the mosquito in its four life stages (specifically the egg, larval, pupal and adult stages), the model simulates a life table of population structure.
Click to see details.

Model Results:
In general, there is good agreement between the observed and modeled global distribution of the mosquito; however, the model results indicate the potential for increased latitudinal distributions during warmer months. Seasonal fluctuations in mosquito abundance also compare well to observed data. Discrepancies possibly reflect the relatively low resolution of the climate data and model output, and the inability of the model to account for local microclimate effects, especially in coastal areas.

El Nino and modeled mosquitoes. Analyses of the relationship between the modeled Aedes aegypti mosquito and ENSO events suggest that densities are significantly greater during El Ni?o months, in the tropical regions of the world, than during La Ni?a months. A strong correlation exists between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI-an ENSO index) and mosquito densities, particularly when an SOI lead of 6 months is used. This implies that ENSO forecasts may be used to estimate future mosquito densities.

Modeled mosquitoes and dengue/DHF cases. Significant correlations exist between modeled mosquito densities and reported dengue/DHF cases, particularly in Southeast Asia where dengue has been a leading cause of childhood mortality for several decades. These results suggest that the ability to forecast mosquito densities may provide estimates of potential dengue caseloads. Such information could potentially serve as an advanced warning system to help reduce the adverse effects of dengue epidemics.

WHO publication:
"Dengue haemorrhagic fever: diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control"
(http://www.who.int/emc/diseases/ebol...ion/index.html)

Health-related Data in the IRI Data Library
The IRI Data Library contains both historical and real-time climate data of use in assessing climate-health relationships. Monthly real-time data includes:
Monthly temperature anomaly
Monthly precipitation anomaly
Monthly relative humidity
Pentad (5 days) satellite estimates of precipitation

A collection of real-time monitoring tools, including analysis of African drought for use in assessing malaria vulnerability, is available in the IRI Map Room.
The IRI Data Library is searchable here.

Other useful web sites:
? Columbia University's Earth Institute (CEI)
? CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network)
? Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
? Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)
? World Health Organization (WHO)
? Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED)
? NOAA ENSO Experiment

More to come

**Snowy Owl** · December 4, 2006, 12:03 PM

There is more in the site for hints and tips, please go around.

Now the Journey of Aedes aegypti since the Austral Spring of 2005, Boreal fall of 2005.

Isle de la R?union, a French possession in the Indian Ocean, Austral Spring of 2005.

An old virus got into the island via Aedes aegypti carrier of the Chickungunya virus. Chickungunya means in African language the disease that bent. Since its symptoms is painful.

This strain of Chickungunya as proved later by Pasteur Institute of Paris and Lyon was highly virulent.

As usual, First nations of La R?union were not told the Truth on what was going on. In matter of months half of the 750 000 people got infected. It took some courageous GP's to denounced the situation and denied the French Helath Ministry datas as not realistic.

You see, once you get the Chick via a bite of Aedes aegypti the same mosquito can go bite another person around you and transmit it.

In the fall of 2005, we were less than 30 Communicators pushing on this isuue so that something would be done.

We knew it was a pandemic but where not allowed to use this word.

Stubborns as we are we hold the road and we got results.

The French Gov allowed to share with us the latest datas on treatments and research so we could forward it to Health Public Officer where the Aedes aegypti was spreading the disease.

India has and still badly blst by Aedes aegypti , on top of this a virulent strain of Hemorragic Dengue was spread by the same mosquitos.

The same started in Indonesia and far east countries.

A couple of months ago we had bad reports from central Americas sountries and south americas countries.

This matter as to be adressed, period.

India managed to reduce the morbidity and mortality by having swift access to up-dated datas on all this.

We need some datas from Mother Clans and Medicine Women and Man on how to repell mosquitoes and what are the traditional treatments.

As ususal we will find some pragmatic help from this.

Traditionalists in India stated that Camphor Oil odors are hated by Aedes aegyptis.

First Nations of South Wales of Australias are categoric, Melaleuca Alternifolia oil are hated by Aedes aegyptis.

Please share uour wisom with this problem in the following thread

Traditional Wisdom against Aedes aegypti, treatments and solutions - FluTrackers News and Information

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=52207#post52207

More to come bu later. I now let the creech stick to who it may concern.

Snowy

**sharon sanders** · September 24, 2007, 08:26 PM

Chikungunya spread example of globalization of disease

Africa Germ, Asian Mosquito Meet at Italy Resort, Spur Outbreak
2007-09-24 19:04 (New York)

By Jason Gale
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- A virus from Africa, a mosquito
from Asia and a tourist from India met one day this summer on
the Italian seaside, showing how globalization hastens the
spread of disease from one continent to another.
More than 250 people in Italy's province of Ravenna have
been infected with chikungunya, a virus that causes fever, rash
and joint pain, since it arrived with a tourist three months
ago. The outbreak was caused by the same viral strain that
sickened about 235,000 people on Reunion island in the Indian
Ocean last year, says an Italian virologist investigating the
episode.
Now Italy is threatened by a contagious illness that may
also spread elsewhere in Europe and North America the same way
it got to Ravenna -- through an infected traveler. There were
2.1 billion airplane passengers last year, driving the spread of
new diseases that are emerging at ``an unprecedented rate,'' the
World Health Organization said last month.
``We are in a world where things are whizzing around so
fast we inevitably are going to see more and more of this kind
of thing happening,'' said Paul Reiter, director of the insects
and infectious diseases unit at the Pasteur Institute in Paris.
At least 39 new pathogens have been identified during the
past 40 years, the WHO said in its 2007 World Health Report last
month. They include the HIV virus that causes AIDS, Ebola
hemorrhagic fever, Marburg fever and SARS -- the respiratory
infection that cost Asian businesses an estimated $60 billion in
2003, or more than $2 million per person infected.

`More Expensive'

Bugs that have infected people for ``thousands of years''
in local areas are now causing disease on an international
scale, says Duane Gubler, director of the University of Hawaii's
Asia-Pacific Institute of Tropical Medicine and Infectious
Diseases. Epidemics resulting from ``globalization are going to
be progressively more expensive,'' he says.
First described by doctors in Tanzania in 1953, chikungunya
regularly causes epidemics in 23 countries in Africa, Asia and
the Pacific. Until last month, Europe had only recorded cases in
travelers who returned with the infection and didn't pass it on.
Scientists say chikungunya, for which there is no vaccine
or specific treatment, could become established in parts of
Europe and the Americas as a result of travel and commerce.

snip

--Editor: Fourcade (mrw/ecw).

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