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If there were a pandemic flu outbreak this year, less than one-fifth of the needed vaccine would be available within six months, a study released Tuesday said.
The study by Seattle-based nonprofit health organization PATH and New York-based management consulting firm Oliver Wyman said about 13 billion vaccine doses would be needed in a flu pandemic, but its best-case scenario said just 2.4 billion doses would be available within a six-month period.
The study, ?Influenza Vaccine Strategies for Broad Global Access,? was conducted to develop strategies to increase access and distribution of flu vaccines among developing world populations before and during a pandemic situation. The two groups sought input from national policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and flu vaccine manufacturers and developers.
Oliver Wyman, a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc., and PATH prepared the study in collaboration with the World Health Organization.
According to the study, if vaccine production and stockpiling began today for the currently circulating H5N1 strain, global demand could be covered by 2011 in a best-case scenario. In an alternative scenario, the report concluded that less than 20% of the global population would be covered by 2013.
The study estimates that an investment of $2 billion to $10 billion is required to start short- and long-term strategies for vaccine access. The strategies include finding a way to extend the shelf life of vaccines and providing ?real-time access? to vaccines for strains that are circulating.
The report, which is free of charge, can be found at www.path.org/publications/details.php?i=1525.
The study by Seattle-based nonprofit health organization PATH and New York-based management consulting firm Oliver Wyman said about 13 billion vaccine doses would be needed in a flu pandemic, but its best-case scenario said just 2.4 billion doses would be available within a six-month period.
The study, ?Influenza Vaccine Strategies for Broad Global Access,? was conducted to develop strategies to increase access and distribution of flu vaccines among developing world populations before and during a pandemic situation. The two groups sought input from national policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and flu vaccine manufacturers and developers.
Oliver Wyman, a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos. Inc., and PATH prepared the study in collaboration with the World Health Organization.
According to the study, if vaccine production and stockpiling began today for the currently circulating H5N1 strain, global demand could be covered by 2011 in a best-case scenario. In an alternative scenario, the report concluded that less than 20% of the global population would be covered by 2013.
The study estimates that an investment of $2 billion to $10 billion is required to start short- and long-term strategies for vaccine access. The strategies include finding a way to extend the shelf life of vaccines and providing ?real-time access? to vaccines for strains that are circulating.
The report, which is free of charge, can be found at www.path.org/publications/details.php?i=1525.
