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  • Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

    As I've been posting the weekly 122 Cities stats, I've noticed that New England, made up of Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, almost consistently has the highest ratio of P&I deaths. I am especially curious about that since that area has shown minimal flu activity up until week 52. Most of the time, the Pacific area, California (predominately), Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, has the second highest ratio; and they, too have had low levels of flu.

    Gs and I discussed this a bit and he mentioned pollution, nutrition... as possible secondary causes. I assume many people in those use wood-burning stoves for heating and I wonder if that adds substantially to respiratory diseases. Does California still have high levels of smog?

    Gs gave me this link for the 1952 London Smog, which I had never read about. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog

    Does anyone have any other ideas regarding high death ratios for those 2 areas? Maybe the reporting somehow skews the statistics? Or maybe I'm just overlooking something obvious.
    The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

  • #2
    Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments



    we also discussed how seasonal waves are worse in the South of USA and Europe
    than in the North. This is somehow counterintuitive since flu likes it cold,
    we have almost no flu in summer.
    It's also severe in regions of mild climate like England and California.

    This N-S difference however reduced a lot during the last decades
    I had a thread ... (link)







    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

      I can vouch that it is very smokey in the Puget Sound region. Depending on proximity to wood smoke chimneys and how and what they are emitting along with climate and terrain concentrators, I think the public health impact can be significant.

      Here's some studies from Christchurch, NZ and WA state:

      http://www.3sc.net/airqual/mapping.html
      Christchurch: deaths up to 16% higher in woodsmoke polluted areas
      Average PM10 pollution in Christchurch, NZ, varies from <1 &#181;g/m3 on the undeveloped fringes of the city to >20 &#181;g/m3 in residential areas with lots of chimneys (see map). More than three quarters (76%) of pollution is from woodsmoke, with only 13% from industry, 11.7% from diesel vehicles and 0.3% from petrol vehicles[1].

      Up to 68% more respiratory deaths. New analyses published in 2007 show that (after adjusting for other factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic status and tobacco smoking habits) death rates were related to smoke levels[2]. Estimates for each increase of 10&#181;g/m3 of PM10 exposure were:
      • 34% increase in respiratory deaths
      • 11% increase in circulatory deaths
      • 8% increase in all deaths


      Inside houses without current wood burning, fine particle
      levels are usually lower than outdoor levels. But in areas
      with high levels of wood smoke, even houses not using
      wood stoves or fireplaces have higher indoor wood smoke
      levels. 15 Indoor fine particle levels from wood smoke in
      homes without wood stoves can be 50 to 70 percent of
      outdoor levels, according to a study in Seattle.16
      Both drafty houses and air-tight houses with indoor/outdoor
      air exchange allow wood smoke to come inside.17
      During the winter months, Seattle residents spend
      roughly 90 percent of their time indoors. In one study, the
      median amount of outdoor fine particle pollution that
      penetrated indoors and remained suspended in the air was
      64 percent.18
      Last edited by Emily; January 13, 2014, 03:19 AM. Reason: Clarified link origins.
      _____________________________________________

      Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

      i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

      "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

      (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
      Never forget Excalibur.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

        Ireland's "Smoky Coal Ban" :


        During the 1980s the Republic of Ireland experienced repeated severe pollution episodes. Domestic coal burning was a major source of this pollution. In 1990 the Irish government introduced a ban on the marketing, sale, and distribution of coal in Dublin. The ban was extended to Cork in 1995 and to 1 …



        --------------------------------------------
        Related citations in PubMed
        Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study.[Lancet. 2002]
        Clancy L, Goodman P, Sinclair H, Dockery DW. Lancet. 2002 Oct 19; 360(9341):1210-4.
        Effects of short-term exposure to air pollution on hospital admissions of young children
        for acute lower respiratory infections in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.[Res Rep Health Eff
        Inst. 2012]Collaborative Working Group on Air Pollution, Poverty, and Health in Ho Chi
        Minh City, Le TG, Ngo L, Mehta S, Do VD, Thach TQ, Vu XD, Nguyen DT, Cohen A.
        Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012 Jun; (169):5-72; discussion 73-83.
        Impact of the 1990 Hong Kong legislation for restriction on sulfur content in fuel.[Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012]
        Wong CM, Rabl A, Thach TQ, Chau YK, Chan KP, Cowling BJ, Lai HK, Lam TH, McGhee SM, Anderson HR, et al.
        Res Rep Health Eff Inst. 2012 Aug; (170):5-91.
        Review Health effects of outdoor air pollution. Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health
        Assembly of the American Thoracic Society.[Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 1996]Review Health effects of
        outdoor air pollution. Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health Assembly of the
        American Thoracic Society.[No authors listed]Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 1996 Jan; 153(1):3-50.
        Review Air pollution and health in urban areas.[Rev Environ Health. 2000]Review Air pollution and
        health in urban areas.Schwela D. Rev Environ Health. 2000 Jan-Jun; 15(1-2):13-42.
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

          Air pollution seems to contribute significantly to influenza-like illnesses and/or complications, for instance:

          Respiratory viral infections and effects of meteorological parameters and air pollution in adults with respiratory symptoms admitted to the emergency room.

          Air pollution, temperature and pediatric influenza in Brisbane, Australia.

          Recently a study published in The Lancet indicates there are no save levels of air pollution, it contributes to overall mortality even in low levels:

          ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
          Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

          ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

            Porto Alegre, Brazil, from November 2008 to October 2010., n=11000
            I don't see any pollution testing

            Brisbane: only pediatric

            increased hazard ratio (HR) [of death] for PM2?5 of 1?07 per 5 μg/m3 in Europe n=300000
            European annual mean limit value of 25 μg/m3
            now I'd like to have the yearly PM2.5 for several cities ...
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments


              USA, > 500 counties, 2000-2007
              A decrease of 10 &#181;g/m3 in the concentration of PM2.5 was associated
              with an increase in mean life expectancy of 0.35 years SD= 0.16 years, p = 0.033).
              This association was stronger in more urban and densely populated counties.
              Since the 1970s, enactment of increasingly stringent air quality controls has led to
              improvements in ambient air quality in the United States at costs that the U.S.
              Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated as high as $25 billion per year.1


              USA, 1980-2000
              A decrease of 10 μg/m3 of fine particulate concentration was associated with an
              estimated increase in life expectancy equal to 0.77 (SE = 0.17) years.
              Since the 1970s, the United States has made substantial efforts and investments
              to improve air quality

              PM2.5 (1979–1983) = 20.64 μg/m3
              PM2.5 (1999–2000) =14.07 μg/m3
              Lung cancer mortality rates (1979–1983) per 10,000 = 14.40
              Lung cancer mortality rates (1997–2001) per 10,000 = 16.82
              COPD mortality rates (1979–1983) per 10,000 = 7.88
              COPD mortality rates (1997–2001 per 10,000 = 12.38

              cardiovascular mortality declined a lot, i.e. 1974-1976 and i.e. in the NE
              is it due to air quality improvement ?

              I think I hade email with Pope some time ago, presumably I found not so much evidence
              that airpollution improvement was the cause of the 1975 death decline mystery
              (else I would remember)
              ------------------------------------------------
              Ambient air pollution demonstrated a strong seasonality with maximum concentrations in winter.
              Increases in morbidity and mortality have been observed consistently and coherently in association with ambient air pollution. A number of studies on short-term effects have identified ambient particles as a major pollutant in urban air. This study, conducted in Erfurt, Germany, investigated the ass …

              The associations tended to be stronger in winter than in summer and at ages below 70 years
              compared to ages above 70 years.
              association for respiratory diseases was slightly stronger than for cardiovascular
              ----------------------------------------
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                comorbidities of hospitalized confirmed influenza cases

                season
                %H1
                %H3
                %B,
                Asthma
                Cardiovascular disease
                Chronic lung disease
                Immune suppression
                Metabolic disorder
                Neuromuscular disorder
                Obesity
                Pregnancy
                Renal disease
                No known condition
                Neurologic disorder
                Code:
                2005f,06,74,19,0199,0534,0321,0130,0357,0056,0035,035,0147,0189,----
                2006f,49,30,21,0081,0291,0163,0095,0254,0037,0022,022,0110,0131,----
                2007f,19,52,29,0165,1350,0753,0326,1090,0160,0089,088,0484,0475,----
                2008f,40,21,38,0198,0243,0209,0135,0267,0043,0041,041,0118,0171,----
                2009f,99,00,00,1448,1012,0937,0612,1397,0216,1862,413,0489,0921,----
                2010f,28,46,26,0943,1801,1133,0605,1748,0339,1512,235,0749,0638,----
                2011f,21,61,18,0412,0716,0505,0353,0687,0063,0682,081,0323,0154,0354
                2012f,01,76,22,1941,4839,2908,1728,4218,0459,3349,304,1925,0837,2077
                2013f,91,05,04,0071,0083,0071,0052,0094,0014,0132,012,0036,0031,0042
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                  ILI by region and agegroups

                  region 6 is more than double the others this season (so far)
                  region 6 was also bad last season but not as this season

                  -------------------------------------------

                  Code:
                  deaths 2004-2009
                  
                  cond. summer   winter  ratio  diff.
                  ------------------------------------
                  all, 6986411  7634731  1.092  648320 
                  hea, 2340773  2594237  1.108  253464 
                  res,  631217   770222  1.220  139005 
                  can, 1709345  1751386  1.024   42041 
                  psy,  241194   299325  1.241   58131 
                  dia,  219103   244176  1.114   25073 
                  sep,   97486   110736  1.135   13250 
                  -------------------------------------
                                                530964
                  
                  copd, 309462   370225  1.196   60763 
                  pne,  142228   192055  1.350   49827 
                  
                  
                  par,   54338    64413  1.185   10075 
                  emp,   35053    39974  1.140    4921 
                  cir,   54493    58554  1.074    4061
                  Attached Files
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                    Have we ever seen any studies/stats on the influenza-related deaths of the elderly or children who received their pneumonia vax versus those who did not?
                    The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                      estimates from 32 European countries for monthly deaths
                      in the first half of 2013 are now available at eurostats.
                      (Italy was included, only June 2013 was missing, which I estimated from
                      previous years. France was excluded although they had 2013, but
                      4 months from 2012 were missing)


                      Wrt. ILI 2011/12 was very mild and 2012/13 was severe.
                      But the death-numbers seem to paint a different picture.
                      I don't know why.




                      rechts oben English
                      database by themes
                      population and social conditions
                      population
                      demography
                      national data
                      mortality
                      deaths by month

                      dec 2013 : I,E,D Dec.2012
                      charts for all 62 cuntries at FT


                      eu62s.gif
                      eu62t.gif
                      mmw13u.gif
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                        This meta-analysis provides evidence supporting the recommendation for PPV to prevent IPD in adults. The evidence from RCTs is less clear with respect to adults with chronic illness. This might be because of lack of effect or lack of power in the studies. The meta-analysis does not provide evidence …


                        n=64852
                        pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines efficacy for

                        invasive pneumococcal disease OR=0.26
                        all-cause pneumonia in low-income countries OR 0.54
                        all-cause pneumonia in high-income countries OR 0.71
                        all-cause mortality OR 0.90

                        poorer in adults with illness

                        ------------------------------------------------
                        my interpretation:
                        it reduces your chances to die from pneumonia by ~30&#37;
                        within some reasonable time span, my guess : ~5 years
                        since that's the time when a repitition is recommended.

                        Now, this includes studies from 1966-2012 and they increased
                        the number of strains in the vaccine and it is well efficient against
                        the included strains (74%), so I assume the current efficiency
                        with the pneumovax 23 to prevent death is higher than 30% ,
                        maybe 50% (wild guess)
                        what's its chance to prevent you from death in a severe H5N1 or H7N9
                        pandemic ?
                        would antibiotics be available, have you prepped antibiotics, would the strain
                        be resistent (were you in hospital in the last years)
                        can I test whether I have MRSA or ORSA or such ?
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                          Did you see the news about this staph vaccine in the works?

                          University of Iowa researchers say new staph infection vaccine could bring the flu death rate down to near zero

                          It's possible that's an overly optimistic projection, but a lot of the reports of deaths following flu seem to be from a complication related to what is described as a bacteria commonly carried by the victim.

                          There's some discussion here about a study indicating that wood smoke at common exposure levels can enhance staph infections.

                          Adverse effects of wood smoke PM2.5 exposure on macrophage functions (Even while classic markers of inflammation (cellular infiltration, total protein, neutrophils) were not affected)
                          _____________________________________________

                          Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                          i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                          "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                          (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                          Never forget Excalibur.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                            when you talk about flu-deaths, then the big thing is
                            still cardiovascular and the elderly and H3N2 (in USA).
                            And diabetes and Alzheimer and Parkinson and Senility
                            and Septicaemia and COPD ...
                            All caused by flu.

                            And I don't think that preventing pneumonia helps a lot here.
                            You can argue that the younger deaths are more important
                            and they more often die from pneumonia but it's much rarer.

                            People die from pneumonia also in summer, just maybe ~20%-30%
                            more in winter, but reducing pneumonia deaths is important
                            independent of flu.

                            Seasonal flu, that is. When we consider possible,bad new flus,
                            (or old flus like 1918) then ... who knows (give your probability
                            estimates )
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Influenza: Random Thoughts and Comments

                              The reason I asked about pneumonia vax studies was because flu seems to either strike the young/old or middle-aged groups. Currently, it seems that the very young and elderly are doing better than the other age groups. I wondered why.

                              I also was not sure how long a pneumonia vax is good for. The John Hopkins paper looks at the re-vax controversy.

                              I did some research on the pneumonia vax and found this good report (24 pages) by the Lung Association:
                              Missed Opportunities
                              Disparities in Lung Health Series
                              Influenza and Pneumonia Vaccination in Older Adults



                              2009 stats show vax rates for the following groups:
                              white: 60%, black 38%, Hispanic: 32%, Asian: 38%, Native American: 50%

                              While the exact number of people who get pneumonia every year is unknown, health records show that in 2006 over 1.2 million people were discharged from the hospital after being treated for pneumonia. Pneumonia can be viral, bacterial or fungal in origin. Pneumococcal pneumonia, which is the type that is most common among older adults, kills more people in the United States each year than any other vaccine-preventable bacterial disease, with an estimated 40,000 deaths annually.
                              This Johns Hopkins paper estimates a single Pneumovax shot is likely to have 75% or more efficacy (serologically) in healthy adults > 65 years of age.

                              Pneumococcal Vaccine: Vaccinate! Revaccinate??
                              The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

                              Comment

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