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Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

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  • Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

    Hello,

    I fastly made a little graph from the data exposed there on 19th september 2006.
    http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian.../en/index.html

    The year 2006 is not over so I extrapolated the final number of cases in that way:

    (100 cases to date) / (9month/12 - ( 19days/30 * 1month/12 )) = around 143 cases by the end of this year.

    So I draw a graph of the number of cases by years since 2003.
    Click image for larger version

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    We then saw the strait linear raise in cases by year. ( not exponential )
    We saw there is no sign that the number of cases may lower.
    The situation is not under control.

    If the linear relation that descibe the raises in case is true, we could expect around... 190 new cases in 2007.

    How many cases before we roll on the right dice number ?
    Who knows ?
    But for sure we gamble more and more and more and notting show us we are about to stop this game.

  • #2
    Re: Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

    well, with linear increase only we could easily handle that
    thousands of years. I had guessed it were exponential.

    The number of human H5N1-HA-sequences in genbank goes
    3,22,16,60 from 2003,..2006
    and all H5N!-HA sequences are:
    45,311,175,140

    (2006 estimated)
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

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    • #3
      Re: Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

      I think we can all agree that the 100 WHO cases for 2006 represent the absolute minimum number of H5N1 human cases to date. By my count there have been more than 160 reported cases to date, (not counting cases that have been reported negative in the news media). There probably are more that have been completely missed or misdiagnosed. Too few data points, but it may be starting to form an exponential curve.
      http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

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      • #4
        Re: Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

        Al, I would say that your remark is a sphincter factor of 7. That is one very ugly curve. No wonder we are beginning to read some of the WHO specialists saying they were getting more concerned and it was time for some to sit up and take notice.....past time in my estimation.
        Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

        Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
        Thank you,
        Shannon Bennett

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        • #5
          Re: Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

          I agree with Al on the underreporting of H5N1 cases, both mild and lethal.

          Personally I think you can take the number of WHO confirmed cases and multiply it by 10, at a minimum, and that is the total number of cases this year. That number is still small when compared to the total population of the world.

          Once again this is just my opinion.

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          • #6
            Re: Graph from Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of AI A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

            Originally posted by Shannon
            I would say that your remark is a sphincter factor of 7. That is one very ugly curve.
            eeeee ???
            I think this one put my bilinguisms skills to their limits...
            I need explanation please.

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