Hello,
I fastly made a little graph from the data exposed there on 19th september 2006.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian.../en/index.html
The year 2006 is not over so I extrapolated the final number of cases in that way:
(100 cases to date) / (9month/12 - ( 19days/30 * 1month/12 )) = around 143 cases by the end of this year.
So I draw a graph of the number of cases by years since 2003.
We then saw the strait linear raise in cases by year. ( not exponential )
We saw there is no sign that the number of cases may lower.
The situation is not under control.
If the linear relation that descibe the raises in case is true, we could expect around... 190 new cases in 2007.
How many cases before we roll on the right dice number ?
Who knows ?
But for sure we gamble more and more and more and notting show us we are about to stop this game.
I fastly made a little graph from the data exposed there on 19th september 2006.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian.../en/index.html
The year 2006 is not over so I extrapolated the final number of cases in that way:
(100 cases to date) / (9month/12 - ( 19days/30 * 1month/12 )) = around 143 cases by the end of this year.
So I draw a graph of the number of cases by years since 2003.
We then saw the strait linear raise in cases by year. ( not exponential )
We saw there is no sign that the number of cases may lower.
The situation is not under control.
If the linear relation that descibe the raises in case is true, we could expect around... 190 new cases in 2007.
How many cases before we roll on the right dice number ?
Who knows ?
But for sure we gamble more and more and more and notting show us we are about to stop this game.
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