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  • #46
    Re: mortality statistics

    m100v.gif : deaths from 4 main causes and P+I-ratio 1910-2010 , monthly , USA

    4#amf.gif : respiratory deaths vs. all deaths by 2 sexes and 11 agegroups , monthly 1959-2010 , USA
    with circulating viruses per season
    Attached Files
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: mortality statistics

      most excess deaths from respiratory causes in USA
      in the 2009 pandemic were the group 48-59 year old people

      see also http://www.plosone.org/article/comme...l.pone.0042328




      divide by population size to get the excess death-rates

      or just divide the excess deaths per agegroup for the seasons:



      with the peak at 26-28 years, that reminds to 1918
      Attached Files
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: mortality statistics

        IPUMS
        -------------

        much census population data is available here:
        IPUMS USA collects, preserves and harmonizes U.S. census microdata and provides easy access to this data with enhanced documentation. Data includes decennial censuses from 1790 to 2010 and American Community Surveys (ACS) from 2000 to the present.


        for USA they have
        ### ~126(?) "variables" , which are the descriptions,classifications of the people, like age or location
        ### 26 "samples" , which are the different censuses, given by the 26 years, when they took place:
        1850,1860,1870,1880,1900,1910,1920,1930,1940,1950, 1960,1970,1980,1990,
        2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009, 2010,2011

        It's a bit difficult to get familiar with this the system the first time.
        You can select subsets from the samples and variables and after registering you download
        the corresponding data in good, uniform, computer-readable format, gzip compressed,
        one line for each census record.
        Well, that would be billions of records for the whole database, and there are also privacy
        issues, so you only random 1% samples or one record per 100000 people,
        but it's still useful for statistics, to create charts about age-distribution or growth and such.
        There are an amazing lots of variables, I assume all US-households fill in that
        questionaire decannually

        The data from 1890 were lost in a fire and 1880 is available completely, not just 1%.
        Hawaii data are available for 1900,1910,1920 and since 1960.

        It would be useful if they did the same thing for the death certificates from NCHS,
        it took me many hours to download and convert their data into a format similar to that !

        As usual, I think the best way would be to download the whole database and use your
        own tools to filter and analyse it offline, and as usual it seems they don't want that.
        I had this experience with genbank,NCHS and other databases already.
        I think it's about funding, giving credit, they want to be cited in papers and
        officials shall see it and decide, that, yes, it's worth funding.
        When people download the whole thing, their online data-filtering service is no
        longer needed, they get fewer links and citations, I speculate.
        But for the analyst it's clearly (IMO) better that way and hopefully what we
        will have in future with such databases.

        Anyway, it's a wealth of data in nice format and I'm happy I found it
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: mortality statistics

          when we split by age-groups, we see another mysterious deaths-decline
          in USA in 1997-1998 in the 20-39y agegroup:




          the solution : it's just because of HIV/AIDS

          > Many health experts, in fact, credit the powerful HAART therapy
          > with helping the domestic AIDS death rate to drop by 47 percent in 1997


          you can also see the 9-11 peak in that agegroup
          Attached Files
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: mortality statistics

            thre was one big heat-wave in USA in the last 54 years,
            and that lead to excess mortality in Jun,23 - Jul,19 in
            North East and middle USA, especially Missouri.
            Other smaller summer excess mortality waves were in
            ...1972,1974,(1977),1980,(1982),(1986),...

            Deaths happened mainly in the elderly and most elevated
            were deaths from almost the same causes that are elevated
            in seasonal waves. I.e. pneumonia.
            It seems that heat as well as influenza open the door for deadly
            pneumonia in the elderly. But not only pneumonia, also heart infarction,
            Alzheimer,Diabetes,Septicemia,Parkinson,senility,r enal failure and almost all
            respiratory and cardiovascular causes.

            (to be continued)

            Code:
            death-ratios in USA by State in 1966
            (days 201-226)/(days 175-200)
            MO, 1.450646 
            IA, 1.317913 
            DE, 1.305195 
            IL, 1.25127 
            NY, 1.227808 
            PA, 1.202536 
            KS, 1.202062 
            MD, 1.200696 
            KY, 1.192724 
            IN, 1.191983 
            MN, 1.187471 
            NJ, 1.184558 
            NE, 1.179617 
            SC, 1.17177 
            MI, 1.145695 
            WI, 1.144449 
            OH, 1.143865 
            MA, 1.126206 
            CO, 1.124772 
            DC, 1.119835 
            AR, 1.117331 
            CT, 1.115882 
            SD, 1.108051 
            TN, 1.107771 
            VA, 1.10773 
            LA, 1.104138 
            NC, 1.103574 
            GA, 1.102935 
            RI, 1.095868 
            AL, 1.091592 
            MT, 1.089716 
            NH, 1.085366 
            NM, 1.083527 
            MS, 1.083221 
            OK, 1.07731 
            UT, 1.073771 
            AZ, 1.066826 
            OR, 1.0652 
            AK, 1.046729 
            WV, 1.042683 
            WY, 1.025126 
            ME, 1.022556 
            FL, 1.020113 
            ND, 1.002571 
            WA, 1.000507 
            TX, .9970282 
            CA, .9864609 
            VT, .9815385 
            HI, .9802371 
            NV, .9519651 
            ID, .9467312
            Code:
            ratio,deaths heat,deaths post-heat,ICD7-code,name of condition
            
            -------->1000 deaths------
             1779 ,1176,661,491,Bronchopneumonia
             1521 ,2198,1445,422,Other myocardial degeneration
             1478 ,1958,1324,450,General arteriosclerosis
             1428 ,1287,901 ,443,Other and unspecified hypertensive heart disease
             1351 ,2525,1868,332,Cerebral embolism and thrombosis
             1346 ,3943,2928,331,Cerebral haemorrhage
             1345 ,1249,928 ,260,Diabetes mellitus
             1266 ,18426,14554,420,Arteriosclerotic heart disease, including coronary disease
            
            ------------100-1000 deaths----------------
            16692 ,217 ,13 ,931,Excessive heat and insolation
             2142 ,120 ,56 ,444,Essential benign hypertension
             1839 ,379 ,206,493,Pneumonia, other and unspecified
             1687 ,248 ,147,490,Lobar pneumonia
             1610 ,939 ,583,334,Other and ill-defined vascular lesions affecting central nervous system
             1472 ,106 ,72 ,421,Chronic endocarditis not specified as rheumatic
             1441 ,124 , 86 ,572,Chronic enteritis and ulcerative colitis
             1426 ,532 ,373 ,442,Hypertensive heart disease with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
             1420 ,179 ,126 ,350,Paralysis agitans
             1417 ,190 ,134 ,903,Fall on same level
             1385 ,212 ,153 ,795,Ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
             1378 ,215 ,156 ,465,Pulmonary embolism and infarction
             1372 ,280 ,204 ,600,Infections of kidney
             1356 ,137 ,101 ,002,Pulmonary tuberculosis
             1327 ,588 ,443 ,527,Other diseases of lung and .pleural cavity
             1297 ,632 ,487 ,177,Malignant neoplasm of prostate
             1264 ,110 , 87 ,502,Chronic bronchitis
             1247 ,136 ,109 ,150,Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
             1203 ,201 ,167 ,570,Intestinal obstruction without mention of hernia
             1195 ,287 ,240 ,433,Functional disease of heart
             1190 ,100 , 84 ,541,Ulcer of duodenum
             1186 ,159 ,134 ,175,Malignant neoplasm of ovary, Fallopian tube and broad ligament
             1170 ,406 ,347 ,434,Other and unspecified diseases of heart
             1146 ,337 ,294 ,154,Malignant neoplasm of rectum
             1126 ,142 ,126 ,540,Ulcer of stomach
             1121 ,138 ,123 ,592,Chronic nephritis
             1114 ,390 ,350 ,162,Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and trachea, and of lung specified as primary
             1104 ,244 ,221 ,446,Hypertension with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
            
            -------------<100 deaths------------------
             1821 , 51 ,28 ,794,Senility without mention of psychosis
             1714 , 48 ,28 ,190,Malignant melanoma of skin
             1640 , 41 ,25 ,141,Malignant neoplasm of tongue
             1629 , 44 ,27 ,463,Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis of lower extremities
             1571 , 33 ,21 ,159,Malignant neoplasm of unspecified digestive organs
             1490 , 76 ,51 ,523,Pneumoconiosis due to silica and silicates (occupational)
             1448 , 42 , 29 ,191,Other malignant neoplasm of skin
             1439 , 59 , 41 ,053,Septicaemia and pyaemia
             1361 , 98 , 72 ,492,Primary atypical pneumonia
             1347 , 31 , 23 ,550,Acute appendicitis
             1333 , 24 , 18 ,287,Obesity, not specified as of endocrine origin
             1277 , 46 , 36 ,587,Diseases of pancreas
             1264 , 43 , 34 ,292,Other anaemias of specified type
             1256 , 49 , 39 ,522,Pulmonary congestion and hypostasis
             1250 , 20 , 16 ,411,Diseases of aortic valve specified as rheumatic
             1250 , 40 , 32 ,286,Other avitaminoses and nutritional deficiency states
             1229 , 75 , 61 ,330,Subarachnoid haemorrhage
             1225 , 98 , 80 ,416,Other heart disease specified as rheumatic
             1220 , 72 , 59 ,525,Other chronic interstitial pneumonia
             1210 , 23 , 19 ,290,Pernicious and other hyperchromic anaemias
             1181 , 39 , 33 ,609,Other diseases of urethra
             1181 , 13 , 11 ,340,Meningitis, except meningococcal and tuberculous
             1176 , 20 , 17 ,715,Chronic ulcer of skin
             1166 , 14 , 12 ,452,Other aneurysm, except of heart and aorta
             1166 , 63 , 54 ,410,Diseases of mitral valve
             1159 , 80 , 69 ,561,Hernia of abdominal cavity with obstruction
             1142 , 16 , 14 ,152,Malignant neoplasm of small intestine, including duodenum
             1133 , 17 , 15 ,197,Malignant neoplasm of connective tissue
             1111 , 10 ,  9 ,591,Nephritis with oedema, including nephrosis
             1104 , 74 , 67 ,593,Nephritis not specified as acute or chronic
             1100 , 33 , 30 ,526,Bronchiectasis
             1100 , 77 , 70 ,241,Asthma
                    
            
            
            
            all
            -----
            
            16692 ,217 ,13 ,931,Excessive heat and insolation
             5000 , 10 , 2 ,480,Influenza with pneumonia
             4333 , 13 , 3 ,481,Influenza with other respiratory manifestations, and influenza unqualified
             4000 , 16 , 4 ,923,Foreign body entering other orifice
             3333 , 10 , 3 ,606,Other diseases of bladder
             2750 , 11 , 4 ,003,Pleural tuberculosis
             2555 , 23 , 9 ,309,Other and unspecified psychoses
             2428 , 17 , 7 ,345,Multiple sclerosis
             2400 , 24 ,10 ,929,Accidental drowning and submersion
             2200 , 11 , 5 ,692,Other cellulitis and abscess without mention of lymphangitis
             2200 , 11 , 5 ,146,Malignant neoplasm of nasopharynx
             2181 , 24 ,11 ,936,Other and unspecified accidents
             2166 , 13 , 6 ,352,Other cerebral paralysis
             2142 ,120 ,56 ,444,Essential benign hypertension
             2142 , 15 , 7 ,455,Gangrene of unspecified cause
             2142 , 15 , 7 ,978,Suicide and self-inflicted injury by jumping from high place
             2055 , 37 ,18 ,722,Rheumatoid arthritis and allied conditions
             2055 , 37 ,18 ,782,Symptoms referable to cardiovascular and lymphatic system
             2000 , 42 ,21 ,454,Arterial embolism and thrombosis
             2000 , 12 , 6 ,223,Benign neoplasm of brain and other parts of nervous system
             2000 , 12 , 6 ,160,Malignant neoplasm of nose, nasal cavities, middle ear and accessory sinuses
             2000 , 10 , 5 ,962,Late effect of other accidental injury
             1839 ,379 ,206,493,Pneumonia, other and unspecified
             1821 , 51 ,28 ,794,Senility without mention of psychosis
             1785 , 50 ,28 ,916,Accident caused by fire and explosion of combustible material
             1779 ,1176,661,491,Bronchopneumonia
             1750 , 21 ,12 ,237,Neoplasm of unspecified nature of brain and other parts of nervous system
             1714 , 48 ,28 ,190,Malignant melanoma of skin
             1687 ,248 ,147,490,Lobar pneumonia
             1666 , 10 , 6 ,723,Osteo-arthritis (arthrosis) and allied conditions
             1666 , 10 , 6 ,981,Assault by firearm and explosive
             1640 , 41 ,25 ,141,Malignant neoplasm of tongue
             1629 , 44 ,27 ,463,Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis of lower extremities
             1610 ,939 ,583,334,Other and ill-defined vascular lesions affecting central nervous system
             1571 , 33 ,21 ,159,Malignant neoplasm of unspecified digestive organs
             1555 , 14 , 9 ,792,Uraemia
             1521 ,2198,1445,422,Other myocardial degeneration
             1500 , 18 ,12 ,467,Other diseases of circulatory system
             1490 , 76 ,51 ,523,Pneumoconiosis due to silica and silicates (occupational)
             1478 ,1958,1324,450,General arteriosclerosis
             1472 ,106 ,72 ,421,Chronic endocarditis not specified as rheumatic
             1448 , 42 , 29 ,191,Other malignant neoplasm of skin
             1441 ,124 , 86 ,572,Chronic enteritis and ulcerative colitis
             1439 , 59 , 41 ,053,Septicaemia and pyaemia
             1428 ,1287,901 ,443,Other and unspecified hypertensive heart disease
             1426 ,532 ,373 ,442,Hypertensive heart disease with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
             1420 ,179 ,126 ,350,Paralysis agitans
             1417 ,190 ,134 ,903,Fall on same level
             1400 , 14 , 10 ,500,Acute bronchitis
             1385 ,212 ,153 ,795,Ill-defined and unknown causes of morbidity and mortality
             1378 ,215 ,156 ,465,Pulmonary embolism and infarction
             1375 , 11 ,  8 ,296,Purpura and other haemorrhagic conditions
             1375 , 11 ,  8 ,545,Other diseases of stomach and duodenum
             1372 ,280 ,204 ,600,Infections of kidney
             1368 , 26 , 19 ,293,Anaemia of unspecified type
             1363 , 15 , 11 ,912,Accident caused by machinery
             1361 , 98 , 72 ,492,Primary atypical pneumonia
             1356 ,137 ,101 ,002,Pulmonary tuberculosis
             1351 ,2525,1868,332,Cerebral embolism and thrombosis
             1347 , 31 , 23 ,550,Acute appendicitis
             1346 ,3943,2928,331,Cerebral haemorrhage
             1345 ,1249,928 ,260,Diabetes mellitus
             1333 , 24 , 18 ,287,Obesity, not specified as of endocrine origin
             1333 , 12 ,  9 ,179,Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified male genital organs
             1327 ,588 ,443 ,527,Other diseases of lung and pleural cavity
             1297 ,632 ,487 ,177,Malignant neoplasm of prostate
             1277 , 46 , 36 ,587,Diseases of pancreas
             1266 ,18426,14554,420,Arteriosclerotic heart disease, including coronary disease
             1264 , 43 , 34 ,292,Other anaemias of specified type
             1264 ,110 , 87 ,502,Chronic bronchitis
             1256 , 49 , 39 ,522,Pulmonary congestion and hypostasis
             1250 , 20 , 16 ,411,Diseases of aortic valve specified as rheumatic
             1250 , 40 , 32 ,286,Other avitaminoses and nutritional deficiency states
             1250 , 10 ,  8 ,304,Senile psychosis
             1247 ,136 ,109 ,150,Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
             1230 , 16 , 13 ,322,Alcoholism
             1229 , 75 , 61 ,330,Subarachnoid haemorrhage
             1225 , 98 , 80 ,416,Other heart disease specified as rheumatic
             1220 , 72 , 59 ,525,Other chronic interstitial pneumonia
             1210 , 23 , 19 ,290,Pernicious and other hyperchromic anaemias
             1203 ,201 ,167 ,570,Intestinal obstruction without mention of hernia
             1195 ,287 ,240 ,433,Functional disease of heart
             1190 ,100 , 84 ,541,Ulcer of duodenum
             1186 ,159 ,134 ,175,Malignant neoplasm of ovary, Fallopian tube and broad ligament
             1181 , 39 , 33 ,609,Other diseases of urethra
             1181 , 13 , 11 ,340,Meningitis, except meningococcal and tuberculous
             1176 , 20 , 17 ,715,Chronic ulcer of skin
             1170 ,406 ,347 ,434,Other and unspecified diseases of heart
             1166 , 14 , 12 ,452,Other aneurysm, except of heart and aorta
             1166 , 63 , 54 ,410,Diseases of mitral valve
             1159 , 80 , 69 ,561,Hernia of abdominal cavity with obstruction
             1146 ,337 ,294 ,154,Malignant neoplasm of rectum
             1142 , 16 , 14 ,152,Malignant neoplasm of small intestine, including duodenum
             1133 , 17 , 15 ,197,Malignant neoplasm of connective tissue
             1126 ,142 ,126 ,540,Ulcer of stomach
             1121 ,138 ,123 ,592,Chronic nephritis
             1114 ,390 ,350 ,162,Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and trachea, and of lung specified as primary
             1111 , 10 ,  9 ,591,Nephritis with oedema, including nephrosis
             1104 , 74 , 67 ,593,Nephritis not specified as acute or chronic
             1104 ,244 ,221 ,446,Hypertension with arteriolar nephrosclerosis
             1100 , 33 , 30 ,526,Bronchiectasis
             1100 , 77 , 70 ,241,Asthma

            wikipedia:
            1966 - not mentioned
            1972 - NY, Northeastern 900 deaths ,16 days.
            1980 - 10000 deaths central and eastern , MO,TX, $20 billion
            1983 - IO,MO,IL,MI,WI,IN,OH,MN,NE,KY
            1988 - 5000-10000 (17000 ?) deaths in USA
            1995 - Chicago ,Wisconsin.
            1999 - MD,DE.NJ,RI,WV 502 deaths
            2000 south
            2001 NJ
            2006 , 220 deaths SD, CA,
            2008, east ,CA
            2010, east,
            2011, Midwestern
            2012, Rocky Mountains
            2013, Southwestern
            Attached Files
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: mortality statistics

              big increase in the elderly ratio in 1997,1998 (why ?)

              then we had a steady decline from the top in 1999 until the minimum in 2007
              then a slight increase in 2008,2009
              then a abrupt increase in 2010 and it stays at that level since then

              was it ****** ?

              (USA, all causes, preliminary, 122 cities, deaths >64 years divided by all deaths
              ----------------------
              not flu-specific
              it is also seen in summer, compare the yearly minima
              I thought maybe the Mexican immigrant legalisation act ?
              but shouldn't that decrease the elderly ratio

              deaths from ****** in the elderly during the months of a flu wave were small

              so it would have to be some lasting effect, that also kills in summer

              --------------------------------
              not so many recently, and only in summer.
              We had some heatwaves in the 60s,70s but nowadays people rarely die
              from it in USA. And you would clearly see it in the charts
              It must be something different (IMO)
              I also noticed, that the elderly ratio did not decline in the 1974-1976 US-death-decline
              mystery, so that 1975 decline mystery was presumably not specific to the elderly,
              at least not the >64-group

              =======================================
              I found zanran
              search engine for data and statistics ? not tested yet

              =======================================
              Attached Files
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: mortality statistics

                there are more deaths on Christmas and on New Year's day
                than on other days


                below a double-pic:
                hmm, the youngerly peak at Dec.24 is shifted towards
                Dec. 25,26 for the elderly

                Jan.1 is the bigger effect, I should check other holidays ...
                what were the US-holidays 1972-1988
                (NCHS stopped giving the day of death since 1989)


                papers at:
                This paper poses three questions: (1) Does mortality from natural causes spike around Christmas and New Year? (2) If so, does this spike exist for all major disease groups or only specialized groups? (3) If twin holiday spikes exist, need this imply that Christmas and New Year are risk factors for d …

                attributed to dead-on-arrival (DOA) and emergency department (ED) settings#


                2004 with charts

                I also have a peak for Jul.4 in the 10-39 age group
                checking Easter ... smaller peak


                Attached Files
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: mortality statistics

                  1974 death decline mystery, posts #13ff

                  ------------------------


                  Deaths related to hypertensive cardiovascular disease and to myocardial infarction have
                  decreased dramatically since 1974, accounting for most of the decrease in cardiovascular
                  death in this time period. This decrease (at least in localized communities) correlates with
                  successful control of hypertension. This strong evidence from Veterans Affairs studies and
                  the epidemiologic data have led to the belief that all patients with a diastolic blood pressure
                  above 90 mm Hg should be treated, regardless of age.

                  Framingham data

                  study conducted by Prys-Roberts et al 227 in 1971 and by Goldman and Caldera 228 in 1979.
                  Several other studies (Bedford and Feinstein, 229 Asiddao et al, 230 Stone et al, 165 Flacke
                  et al, 167 Ghignone et al, 168 Tuman et al, 172 Ellis et al, 231 Charlson et al, 8 Mangano
                  et al, 166, 232 Stone et al, 233 Wolfsthal, 234 and Pasternack et al 235 ) also have been cited.

                  --------------------------------------------------------

                  so maybe the 1974-1976 US-death decline was due to the start of aggessive
                  treatment of hypertension in USA, while in other countries the timing
                  of treatment was a bit different

                  biggest effect was in cerebrovascular disease (stroke)
                  then ischaemic heart disease (by far the most prominent cause of death)

                  that treatment could also have had benefits for deaths from some other diseases,
                  like diabetes or renal failure (Alzheimer ? Parkinson ?)


                  looking for:
                  a chart of average hypertension of heart patients in USA over time
                  a chart of consumption/production of anti-hypertensive drugs over time

                  and USA compared to other countries wrt. this

                  -------------------------------------------------------------

                  vasodilating drugs

                  Framingham study (Kannel, Wolf,
                  Verter, and McNamara, 1970)
                  showed an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease
                  in initially asymptomatic persons whose initial pressures were 160/90 mm Hg or greater.

                  Autonomic Ganglion-blocking Drugs
                  Adrenergic Neurone-blocking Drugs
                  Adrenergic Receptor-blocking Drugs
                  Drugs with Direct Action on Vascular Resistance
                  The thiazide diuretics are widely used alone or in
                  combination with other drugs in the management
                  of mild and modest hypertension.

                  As of 2009, the best available evidence favors the thiazide diuretics as the first-line treatment
                  of choice for high blood pressure when drugs are necessary

                  Clonidine has been approved for treatment of hypertension in the United States since 1974
                  centrally acting α2 adrenergic agonist.

                  Ibuprofen has been available as a
                  prescription drug for the treatment of osteoarthritis and rheumatoid
                  arthritis at a dose of 1,200 to 3,200 milligrams (mg) per (/) day since
                  1974 in the United States and since 1969 in the United Kingdom.

                  May is high Blood pressure education Month
                  and has been so since 1974, when the
                  National high Blood pressure education program
                  of the National heart, Lung, and Blood institute
                  launched this initiative.


                  ----------------------------------------------------------

                  niacin has been known to prevent atherosclerosis and to reduce the risk of
                  second heart attacks since 1975.
                  Niacin alone[20] or in combination with other lipid lowering agents such
                  as statin[21] or ezetimibe[22] significantly reduces risk of cardiovascular
                  disease and arthrosclerosis progression.[23]

                  Coronary Drug Project of 1965-1974,4 ...

                  In fact, the primary study that pointed to the benefits of high HDL was the Coronary Drug Project
                  of 1965-1974,4 which examined the effects of niacin on cholesterol levels. It probably should be
                  noted that over a quarter century later, niacin is still the most effective FDA approved means of
                  raising HDL-cholesterol.



                  In fact, it appears inflammation is the thread that ties everything together. Inflammation
                  damages the walls of the arteries -- but not the veins -- forcing the body to "repair" the
                  damage using cholesterol-based, cement-like plaque to patch over the problem areas.
                  Over time, with continued inflammation and continued repairs, the patches start thickening,
                  hardening, and narrowing the arteries. Statin drugs work, then, not because they lower
                  cholesterol, but because they reduce arterial inflammation. As it turns out, statin drugs
                  suppress T-cell activation and inhibit the release of inflammatory cytokines that are
                  critical mediators of the inflammation response.10,11,12 Statin drugs also help lower
                  C-reactive protein levels -- a known inflammation marker and independent risk factor
                  in the development of ischemic stroke -- again, entirely separate from their effect on
                  serum cholesterol.13,14,15

                  The US National Institutes of Health has stopped a clinical trial studying a combination
                  of niacin (nicotinic acid) and a statin 18 months earlier than planned because of poor results.

                  did not reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke.


                  Since its beginning in 1974, the WIC Program has earned the reputation of being one of the
                  most successful Federally-funded nutrition programs in the United States



                  ---------------------------------------------------
                  Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory condition involving immunocompetent
                  cells of different types present in the lesions
                  Bacteria and virus have been discussed as potential causes of immune activation,
                  but it has been difficult to find direct evidence supporting this hypothesis,
                  and antibiotic trials in humans have been negative or inconclusive

                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------

                  there was a major decrease in the mother’s milk concentrations in the mid and late 1970s
                  (PCB in Germany) whereas in the 1980s the concentrations remained on the same level.



                  The TSCA was passed by the United States Congress and signed into law by President
                  Gerald Ford on October 11, 1976, after many years of negotiation between different factions
                  of the government and chemical producers.[6] As one of the most important pieces of legislation
                  ever passed in the United States, TSCA authorized the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
                  to regulate new and existing chemicals.[6] TSCA was response to Congress’ growing concerns
                  about the unreasonable risks that chemicals pose to human health and the environment.[6] TSCA
                  limits the manufacture, processing, commercial distribution, use, and disposal of chemical
                  substances including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), asbestos, radon and lead-based paint.[6]

                  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  pubmed hits for "polychlorinated bisphenols"
                  1968,...,1976:1,1,8,48,125,121,168,178,152

                  there was a major decrease in the mother’s milk concentrations in the mid and late 1970s
                  (PCB in Germany) whereas in the 1980s the concentrations remained on the same level.

                  national conference Chicago 1975
                  ---------------------------------------------
                  We found no evidence that living closer to PCBs would increase risk of heart disease
                  or a stroke," state Health Department spokesman Jeffrey Hammond said of the 2011 study,
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: mortality statistics

                    "wonder" also made a database from the NCHS death certificates:


                    they have 1999-2010 , no place of death 1999-2006

                    state,county,age1,gender,race,hispanic,urbanizatio n,year,month,weekday,autopsy?,
                    facility-type of death,ICD10-cause,multiple

                    75,000 is the maximum of rows allowed

                    i tried age1,HHS10,gender2,icd113,
                    This request produces 305,351 rows,

                    then i tried age1,HHS,gender,icd-chapter
                    processing request ....5min....

                    after .-10min the browser closed the page
                    Die Webseite ist abgelaufen

                    going back to wonder, I see:

                    WONDER Message
                    Access WONDER data by completing and submitting a request page.
                    To access data for the requested resource please go to:
                    http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html.
                    Or start at http://wonder.cdc.gov and navigate from there


                    then it asks me again to agree:

                    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Data Use Restrictions:

                    The Public Health Service Act (42 U.S.C. 242m(d)) provides that the data collected by the
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                    the information for any purpose other than for health statistical reporting and analysis,
                    is against the law. Therefore users will:

                    Use these data for health statistical reporting and analysis only.
                    For sub-national geography, do not present or publish death counts of 9 or fewer or death
                    rates based on counts of nine or fewer (in figures, graphs, maps, tables, etc.).
                    Make no attempt to learn the identity of any person or establishment included in these data.
                    Make no disclosure or other use of the identity of any person or establishment discovered
                    inadvertently and advise the NCHS Confidentiality Officer of any such discovery.

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                    By clicking the "I Agree" button I signify that I will abide by the terms of data use stated
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                    -------------------------------------------------------------------

                    but then it just displays a new empty form page

                    ok, trying the same again ...

                    select "save to file" at the bottom !
                    unselect "display"


                    more later

                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

                    OK, I got data for the 4 census regions, even after 2005 for which NCHS doesn't give any
                    geographical data. The format is OK, not difficult to convert.
                    Deaths in the youngerly in 2009 are just too few to draw conclusions about the H1
                    mortality age-structure for <40
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: mortality statistics

                      it seems that the wave of decline in deaths from cardiovascular
                      (circulatory) causes, that we have seen in USA since 2001
                      has stopped in 2009. It stayed almost constant from 2008 to 2011.

                      Could this have been caused by the new H1-virus ?
                      It doesn't seem so, since the H1-flu wave itself was not associated
                      with big increase in circulatory mortality.

                      It's not so easy for me to figure out, whether the new H1 causes
                      any excess cardiovascular deaths at all, you have to take the
                      general trend into account.

                      estimated excess respiratory deaths (25-64,65-84,>84):
                      Jun.2009:312,?,?
                      Jul.2009:165,?,?
                      Aug.2009:276,?,?
                      Sep.2009:391,21,107
                      Oct.2009:1250,491,97
                      Nov.2009:1087,303,-128
                      Dec.2009:210,-276,-463

                      negative numbers presumably come from spared deaths from other
                      flu that usually occur at that time but was suppressed by new H1.

                      Then in Jan.,Feb.2010 about 10000-20000 deaths were spared
                      because of that effect. Although these were elderly deaths
                      as compared to younger deaths from new H1.

                      excess circulatory deaths in the 25-64
                      Sep.2009:290
                      Oct.2009:416
                      Nov.2009:352
                      Dec.2009:-196

                      (comparing 2009 with 2008 and 2010)


                      Compare with Europe...


                      --------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Centers for Disease Control and Prevention , National Center for Health Statistics.
                      Multiple Cause of Death"
                      "1999-2010 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released 2012.
                      Data are from the Multiple Cause of Death Files, 1999-2010, as compiled"
                      "from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the
                      Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at"
                      "http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html on Jan 29, 2014 12:24:36 AM
                      ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      National Center for Health Statistics. Compressed Mortality File, 1999-2010
                      (machine readable data file and documentation, CD-ROM Series 20, No. 2P) as
                      compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital
                      Statistics Cooperative Program. Hyattsville, Maryland. 2012.
                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      ----------------edit-----------------
                      as you can see from the attached chart cau_f2c.gif , the decline
                      in age<60 deaths from circulatory causes continued through
                      2009,2010 in Europe

                      --------------------edit---------------------
                      ******-deaths for USA are given as 2.8 per 100K or ~8500 here:

                      for Mexico they get 5.0 respir. and 2.2 cardio
                      (I couldn't easily find the value for USA)
                      Attached Files
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: mortality statistics

                        Code:
                        excess Oct+Nov.2009 youngerly(<60) US-deaths
                        
                        p-value * 1000
                        ICD10-code
                        deaths in Oct+Nov 2009
                        deaths in (Oct+Nov,2008+2010)/2
                        ICD10-description
                        
                        
                        000 A41 1108  971         A41 Other septicaemia
                        000 B34 41  20            B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
                        000 D72 7  2              D72 Other disorders of white blood cells
                        000 D83 5  1              D83 Common variable immunodeficiency
                        000 E11 439  349          E11 Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus
                        000 F06 9  2              F06 Other mental disorders due to brain damage and dysfunction and to physical disease
                        000 F17 35  20            F17 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of tobacco
                        000 G83 7  2              G83 Other paralytic syndromes
                        000 G92 7  2              G92 Toxic encephalopathy
                        000 I42 1051  942         I42 Cardiomyopathy
                        000 I50 503  429          I50 Heart failure
                        000 I62 378  306          I62 Other nontraumatic intracranial haemorrhage
                        000 J09 794  2            J09 (added) influenza due to specified avian influenza virus
                        000 J10 111  4            J10 Influenza due to identified influenza virus
                        000 J11 289  7            J11 Influenza, virus not identified
                        000 J12 55  7             J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
                        000 J13 28  15            J13 Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae
                        000 J15 117  63           J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
                        000 J18 1182  679         J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
                        000 J44 1604  1299        J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
                        000 J69 237  192          J69 Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids
                        000 J80 191  83           J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
                        000 J90 25  7             J90 Pleural effusion, not elsewhere classified
                        000 K20 7  2              K20 Oesophagitis
                        000 N73 5  1              N73 Other female pelvic inflammatory diseases
                        000 O14 5  1              O14 Gestational [pregnancy-induced] hypertension with significant proteinuria
                        000 O96 57  30            O96 Death from any obstetric cause occurring more than 42 days but less than one year after delivery
                        000 Q02 16  6             Q02 Microcephaly
                        000 R94 5  1              R94 Abnormal results of function studies
                        000 V95 61  40            V95 Accident to powered aircraft causing injury to occupant
                        000 Y28 5  1              Y28 Contact with sharp object, undetermined intent
                        001 J43 186  149          J43 Emphysema
                        001 Q93 20  10            Q93 Monosomies and deletions from the autosomes, not elsewhere classified
                        001 V54 38  23            V54 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in collision with heavy transport vehicle or bus
                        001 W68 12  5             W68 Drowning and submersion following fall into swimming-pool
                        001 Y12 221  181          Y12 Poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified, undetermined intent
                        002 K86 55  37            K86 Other diseases of pancreas
                        003 W65 55  38            W65 Drowning and submersion while in bath-tub
                        003 X41 274  232          X41 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, anti-Parkinsonism and psychotropic drugs, not elsewhere classified
                        004 C81 99  76            C81 Hodgkin's disease
                        004 K59 16  8             K59 Other functional intestinal disorders
                        004 W76 41  27            W76 Other accidental hanging and strangulation
                        005 C64 508  453          C64 Malignant neoplasm of kidney, except renal pelvis
                        005 D68 85  64            D68 Other coagulation defects
                        005 O26 32  20            O26 Maternal care for other conditions predominantly related to pregnancy
                        006 A86 11  5             A86 Unspecified viral encephalitis
                        006 B20 521  467          B20 Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease resulting in infectious and parasitic diseases
                        006 G41 49  34            G41 Status epilepticus
                        006 I26 427  378          I26 Pulmonary embolism
                        006 L97 4  1              L97 Ulcer of lower limb, not elsewhere classified
                        006 M79 4  1              M79 Other soft tissue disorders, not elsewhere classified
                        006 O10 4  1              O10 Pre-existing hypertension complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
                        006 R07 4  1              R07 Pain in throat and chest
                        006 V85 6  2              V85 Occupant of special construction vehicle injured in transport accident
                        006 W67 33  21            W67 Drowning and submersion while in swimming-pool
                        006 X39 6  2              X39 Exposure to other and unspecified forces of nature
                        006 X88 4  1              X88 Assault by gases and vapours
                        007 N18 497  445          N18 Chronic renal failure
                        008 E27 18  10            E27 Other disorders of adrenal gland
                        008 K74 1079  1003        K74 Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver
                        008 M06 35  23            M06 Other rheumatoid arthritis
                        008 N17 173  144          N17 Acute renal failure
                        009 C43 483  434          C43 Malignant melanoma of skin
                        011 C07 23  14            C07 Malignant neoplasm of parotid gland
                        011 C22 1033  962         C22 Malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile ducts
                        012 B00 9  4              B00 Herpesviral [herpes simplex] infections
                        012 P60 12  6             P60 Disseminated intravascular coagulation of foetus and newborn
                        012 Q07 12  6             Q07 Other congenital malformations of nervous system
                        014 I27 227  196          I27 Other pulmonary heart diseases
                        015 V03 344  306          V03 Pedestrian injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van
                        016 A40 30  20            A40 Streptococcal septicaemia
                        018 E66 545  498          E66 Obesity
                        018 I12 217  188          I12 Hypertensive renal disease
                        018 J20 13  7             J20 Acute bronchitis
                        018 N20 13  7             N20 Calculus of kidney and ureter
                        019 E72 17  10            E72 Other disorders of amino-acid metabolism
                        019 V59 43  31            V59 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
                        021 I25 5075  4936        I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
                        021 K08 7  3              K08 Other disorders of teeth and supporting structures
                        021 W86 7  3              W86 Exposure to other specified electric current
                        022 C49 279  247          C49 Malignant neoplasm of other connective and soft tissue
                        022 P22 105  86           P22 Respiratory distress of newborn
                        022 Q01 10  5             Q01 Encephalocele
                        022 W23 22  14            W23 Caught, crushed, jammed or pinched in or between objects
                        024 D57 97  79            D57 Sickle-cell disorders
                        024 Q87 53  40            Q87 Other specified congenital malformation syndromes affecting multiple systems
                        025 J93 18  11            J93 Pneumothorax
                        025 P39 14  8             P39 Other infections specific to the perinatal period
                        029 I33 74  59            I33 Acute and subacute endocarditis
                        030 C69 19  12            C69 Malignant neoplasm of eye and adnexa
                        030 Y35 66  52            Y35 Legal intervention
                        031 Q90 118  99           Q90 Down's syndrome
                        033 L98 11  6             L98 Other disorders of skin and subcutaneous tissue, not elsewhere classified
                        034 X49 31  22            X49 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified chemicals and noxious substances
                        038 C33 5  2              C33 Malignant neoplasm of trachea
                        038 G30 72  58            G30 Alzheimer's disease
                        038 K85 200  176          K85 Acute pancreatitis
                        038 N02 5  2              N02 Recurrent and persistent haematuria
                        038 V58 128  109          V58 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in noncollision transport accident
                        038 X06 5  2              X06 Exposure to ignition or melting of other clothing and apparel
                        040 C85 426  391          C85 Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
                        040 I95 8  4              I95 Hypotension
                        040 P61 8  4              P61 Other perinatal haematological disorders
                        040 W01 8  4              W01 Fall on same level from slipping, tripping and stumbling
                        040 X47 84  69            X47 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
                        044 D35 12  7             D35 Benign neoplasm of other and unspecified endocrine glands
                        044 J47 12  7             J47 Bronchiectasis
                        044 W22 12  7             W22 Striking against or struck by other objects
                        047 Y14 240  215          Y14 Poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances, undetermined intent
                        048 C45 51  40            C45 Mesothelioma
                        048 E16 17  11            E16 Other disorders of pancreatic internal secretion
                        048 M33 17  11            M33 Dermatopolymyositis
                        050 C32 162  142          C32 Malignant neoplasm of larynx
                        050 G93 479  444          G93 Other disorders of brain
                        050 W75 132  114          W75 Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed
                        054 G40 137  119          G40 Epilepsy
                        054 K81 30  22            K81 Cholecystitis
                        055 B37 13  8             B37 Candidiasis
                        055 B59 13  8             B59 Pneumocystosis
                        058 K83 31  23            K83 Other diseases of biliary tract
                        060 J45 254  230          J45 Asthma
                        062 P20 25  18            P20 Intra-uterine hypoxia
                        062 P25 25  18            P25 Interstitial emphysema and related conditions originating in the perinatal period
                        063 K26 40  31            K26 Duodenal ulcer
                        063 X66 19  13            X66 Intentional self-poisoning by and exposure to organic solvents and halogenated hydrocarbons and their vapours
                        066 A92 3  1              A92 Other mosquito-borne viral fevers
                        066 H66 3  1              H66 Suppurative and unspecified otitis media
                        066 I44 3  1              I44 Atrioventricular and left bundle-branch block
                        066 J02 3  1              J02 Acute pharyngitis
                        066 M84 3  1              M84 Disorders of continuity of bone
                        066 N32 3  1              N32 Other disorders of bladder
                        066 N83 3  1              N83 Noninflammatory disorders of ovary, Fallopian tube and broad ligament
                        066 O15 3  1              O15 Eclampsia
                        066 Q68 3  1              Q68 Other congenital musculoskeletal deformities
                        076 C68 10  6             C68 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified urinary organs
                        076 V14 10  6             V14 Pedal cyclist injured in collision with heavy transport vehicle or bus
                        077 W85 15  10            W85 Exposure to electric transmission lines
                        078 C71 865  824          C71 Malignant neoplasm of brain
                        078 I74 28  21            I74 Arterial embolism and thrombosis
                        078 P29 171  153          P29 Cardiovascular disorders originating in the perinatal period
                        080 C15 576  543          C15 Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus
                        081 G00 37  29            G00 Bacterial meningitis, not elsewhere classified
                        082 O99 29  22            O99 Other maternal diseases classifiable elsewhere but complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
                        087 V68 16  11            V68 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in noncollision transport accident
                        091 W83 23  17            W83 Other specified threats to breathing
                        092 C95 135  120          C95 Leukaemia of unspecified cell type
                        092 F14 50  41            F14 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of cocaine
                        092 X92 11  7             X92 Assault by drowning and submersion
                        096 C82 17  12            C82 Follicular [nodular] non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
                        096 P05 17  12            P05 Slow foetal growth and foetal malnutrition
                        097 I70 64  54            I70 Atherosclerosis
                        103 I11 1433  1386        I11 Hypertensive heart disease
                        103 I71 286  265          I71 Aortic aneurysm and dissection
                        105 A81 18  13            A81 Atypical virus infections of central nervous system
                        105 C66 7  4              C66 Malignant neoplasm of ureter
                        105 I89 7  4              I89 Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
                        105 J06 7  4              J06 Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
                        105 M48 7  4              M48 Other spondylopathies
                        105 R04 7  4              R04 Haemorrhage from respiratory passages
                        105 Y60 7  4              Y60 Unintentional cut, puncture, perforation or haemorrhage during surgical and medical care
                        106 C41 132  118          C41 Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage of other and unspecified sites
                        107 C08 12  8             C08 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified major salivary glands
                        107 Y57 12  8             Y57 Other and unspecified drugs and medicaments
                        114 I72 27  21            I72 Other aneurysm
                        117 K57 37  30            K57 Diverticular disease of intestine
                        119 C53 389  366          C53 Malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri
                        121 B44 13  9             B44 Aspergillosis
                        121 K25 38  31            K25 Gastric ulcer
                        122 P23 20  15            P23 Congenital pneumonia
                        125 M72 39  32            M72 Fibroblastic disorders
                        125 X67 153  139          X67 Intentional self-poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
                        ...
                        996 C06 22  38            C06 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of mouth
                        997 Y04 5  16             Y04 Assault by bodily force
                        998 C67 177  222          C67 Malignant neoplasm of bladder
                        998 V05 38  61            V05 Pedestrian injured in collision with railway train or railway vehicle
                        999 F03 51  81            F03 Unspecified dementia
                        999 F19 125  181          F19 Mental and behavioural disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances
                        999 P77 66  97            P77 Necrotising enterocolitis of foetus and newborn
                        999 V09 291  373          V09 Pedestrian injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
                        999 V89 1351  1510        V89 Motor- or nonmotor-vehicle accident, type of vehicle unspecified
                        
                        
                        000 A09 92  56            A09 Diarrhoea and gastro-enteritis of presumed infectious origin
                        1000 K52 6  43             K52 Other non-infective gastro-enteritis and colitis
                        removed is
                        000 A09 92 56 A09 Diarrhoea and gastro-enteritis of presumed infectious origin
                        because the increase is due to a change of category
                        from noninfective (K52) to infective (A09)


                        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        and the same for dec.2003 (Fujian-flu) :

                        Code:
                        dec 2003 vs.(dec2002+dec2004)/2  USA deaths , 0-64 years
                        
                        000 A41 551  480          A41 Other septicaemia
                        000 B23 282  217          B23 Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease resulting in other conditions
                        000 B34 27  14            B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
                        000 B99 9  3              B99 Other and unspecified infectious diseases
                        000 D65 23  10            D65 Disseminated intravascular coagulation [defibrination syndrome]
                        000 D76 11  3             D76 Certain diseases involving lymphoreticular tissue and reticulohistiocytic system
                        000 E27 14  4             E27 Other disorders of adrenal gland
                        000 E75 25  13            E75 Disorders of sphingolipid metabolism and other lipid storage disorders
                        000 F15 7  2              F15 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of other stimulants, including caffeine
                        000 F19 136  97           F19 Mental and behavioural disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances
                        000 G00 48  22            G00 Bacterial meningitis, not elsewhere classified
                        000 I11 717  593          I11 Hypertensive heart disease
                        000 I25 3056  2824        I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
                        000 I33 50  32            I33 Acute and subacute endocarditis
                        000 J10 66  2             J10 Influenza due to identified influenza virus
                        000 J11 144  6            J11 Influenza, virus not identified
                        000 J15 100  46           J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
                        000 J18 614  387          J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
                        000 J20 12  3             J20 Acute bronchitis
                        000 J43 128  95           J43 Emphysema
                        000 J44 715  565          J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
                        000 J98 99  70            J98 Other respiratory disorders
                        000 K46 7  2              K46 Unspecified abdominal hernia
                        000 L08 7  2              L08 Other local infections of skin and subcutaneous tissue
                        000 M08 5  1              M08 Juvenile arthritis
                        000 N04 5  1              N04 Nephrotic syndrome
                        000 O75 7  1              O75 Other complications of labour and delivery, not elsewhere classified
                        000 O88 5  1              O88 Obstetric embolism
                        000 O99 13  5             O99 Other maternal diseases classifiable elsewhere but complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
                        000 P07 427  360          P07 Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight, not elsewhere classified
                        000 P37 9  3              P37 Other congenital infectious and parasitic diseases
                        000 V23 58  36            V23 Motorcycle rider injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van
                        000 V40 8  2              V40 Car occupant injured in collision with pedestrian or animal
                        000 W08 6  1              W08 Fall involving other furniture
                        000 X46 7  2              X46 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to organic solvents and halogenated hydrocarbons and their vapours
                        000 Y06 5  1              Y06 Neglect and abandonment
                        000 Y14 119  84           Y14 Poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances, undetermined intent
                        001 F10 491  427          F10 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of alcohol
                        001 G03 24  13            G03 Meningitis due to other and unspecified causes
                        002 A39 21  11            A39 Meningococcal infection
                        002 A49 21  11            A49 Bacterial infection of unspecified site
                        002 D69 25  14            D69 Purpura and other haemorrhagic conditions
                        002 E46 25  14            E46 Unspecified protein-energy malnutrition
                        002 G31 41  26            G31 Other degenerative diseases of nervous system, not elsewhere classified
                        002 I21 2132  2008        I21 Acute myocardial infarction
                        002 P52 47  31            P52 Intracranial nontraumatic haemorrhage of foetus and newborn
                        002 Q79 37  23            Q79 Congenital malformations of musculoskeletal system, not elsewhere classified
                        003 G35 166  134          G35 Multiple sclerosis
                        003 J12 19  10            J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
                        004 F32 8  3              F32 Depressive episode
                        004 G71 97  74            G71 Primary disorders of muscles
                        004 I48 27  16            I48 Atrial fibrillation and flutter
                        004 P04 8  3              P04 Foetus and newborn affected by noxious influences transmitted via placenta or breast milk
                        004 X84 16  8             X84 Intentional self-harm by unspecified means
                        005 Q21 59  42            Q21 Congenital malformations of cardiac septa
                        005 X47 65  47            X47 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
                        006 B46 4  1              B46 Zygomycosis
                        006 C66 4  1              C66 Malignant neoplasm of ureter
                        006 I49 205  172          I49 Other cardiac arrhythmias
                        006 K82 6  2              K82 Other diseases of gallbladder
                        006 V69 6  2              V69 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
                        006 X94 75  56            X94 Assault by rifle, shotgun and larger firearm discharge
                        006 Y03 6  2              Y03 Assault by crashing of motor vehicle
                        008 V09 163  135          V09 Pedestrian injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
                        009 C73 31  20            C73 Malignant neoplasm of thyroid gland
                        010 E87 55  40            E87 Other disorders of fluid, electrolyte and acid-base balance
                        010 I31 15  8             I31 Other diseases of pericardium
                        010 K22 15  8             K22 Other diseases of oesophagus
                        011 K74 546  495          K74 Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver
                        012 J40 12  6             J40 Bronchitis, not specified as acute or chronic
                        012 R99 1005  937         R99 Other ill-defined and unspecified causes of mortality
                        012 W30 9  4              W30 Contact with agricultural machinery
                        012 X97 12  6             X97 Assault by smoke, fire and flames
                        012 Y21 9  4              Y21 Drowning and submersion, undetermined intent
                        013 B21 80  62            B21 Human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] disease resulting in malignant neoplasms
                        013 V58 107  86           V58 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in noncollision transport accident
                        015 I61 358  319          I61 Intracerebral haemorrhage
                        016 C21 25  16            C21 Malignant neoplasm of anus and anal canal
                        016 C85 284  250          C85 Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
                        016 K75 41  29            K75 Other inflammatory liver diseases
                        016 Y83 41  29            Y83 Surgical operation and other surgical procedures as the cause of abnormal reaction of the patient, or of later complication, without mention of misadventure at the time of the procedure
                        017 Y12 172  146          Y12 Poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified, undetermined intent
                        018 C06 21  13            C06 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of mouth
                        018 I50 261  229          I50 Heart failure
                        018 M32 89  71            M32 Systemic lupus erythematosus
                        019 W11 17  10            W11 Fall on and from ladder
                        020 N18 272  240          N18 Chronic renal failure
                        021 J32 7  3              J32 Chronic sinusitis
                        021 K44 7  3              K44 Diaphragmatic hernia
                        021 O90 7  3              O90 Complications of the puerperium, not elsewhere classified
                        021 X92 7  3              X92 Assault by drowning and submersion
                        022 C71 474  432          C71 Malignant neoplasm of brain
                        023 K70 769  716          K70 Alcoholic liver disease
                        024 G93 209  182          G93 Other disorders of brain
                        025 M62 18  11            M62 Other disorders of muscle
                        025 V68 18  11            V68 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in noncollision transport accident
                        027 Y86 41  30            Y86 Sequelae of other accidents
                        030 C79 95  78            C79 Secondary malignant neoplasm of other sites
                        030 J85 19  12            J85 Abscess of lung and mediastinum
                        030 X40 19  12            X40 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to nonopioid analgesics, antipyretics and antirheumatics
                        031 E84 50  38            E84 Cystic fibrosis
                        031 R09 30  21            R09 Other symptoms and signs involving the circulatory and respiratory systems
                        033 D70 11  6             D70 Agranulocytosis
                        033 F14 44  33            F14 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of cocaine
                        033 K83 15  9             K83 Other diseases of biliary tract
                        033 P22 78  63            P22 Respiratory distress of newborn
                        034 G80 123  104          G80 Infantile cerebral palsy
                        038 C23 32  23            C23 Malignant neoplasm of gallbladder
                        038 C40 5  2              C40 Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage of limbs
                        038 E34 5  2              E34 Other endocrine disorders
                        038 I89 5  2              I89 Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
                        038 J04 5  2              J04 Acute laryngitis and tracheitis
                        038 J06 5  2              J06 Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
                        038 V24 5  2              V24 Motorcycle rider injured in collision with heavy transport vehicle or bus
                        040 B44 8  4              B44 Aspergillosis
                        040 C57 8  4              C57 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified female genital organs
                        040 I82 8  4              I82 Other venous embolism and thrombosis
                        042 P29 86  71            P29 Cardiovascular disorders originating in the perinatal period
                        042 X95 854  805          X95 Assault by other and unspecified firearm discharge
                        043 B16 41  31            B16 Acute hepatitis B
                        044 C84 34  25            C84 Peripheral and cutaneous T-cell lymphomas
                        044 K52 34  25            K52 Other non-infective gastro-enteritis and colitis
                        046 W75 50  39            W75 Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed
                        049 K86 43  33            K86 Other diseases of pancreas
                        050 C11 29  21            C11 Malignant neoplasm of nasopharynx
                        050 W13 29  21            W13 Fall from, out of or through building or structure
                        052 D57 53  42            D57 Sickle-cell disorders
                        055 K35 13  8             K35 Acute appendicitis
                        056 I62 155  136          I62 Other nontraumatic intracranial haemorrhage
                        058 M33 9  5              M33 Dermatopolymyositis
                        060 B94 116  100          B94 Sequelae of other and unspecified infectious and parasitic diseases
                        060 C14 39  30            C14 Malignant neoplasm of other and ill-defined sites in the lip, oral cavity and pharynx
                        064 V95 49  39            V95 Accident to powered aircraft causing injury to occupant
                        066 F54 3  1              F54 Psychological and behavioural factors associated with disorders or diseases classified elsewhere
                        066 G98 3  1              G98 Other disorders of nervous system, not elsewhere classified
                        066 K37 3  1              K37 Unspecified appendicitis
                        066 M00 3  1              M00 Pyogenic arthritis
                        066 M54 3  1              M54 Dorsalgia
                        066 M89 3  1              M89 Other disorders of bone
                        066 W01 3  1              W01 Fall on same level from slipping, tripping and stumbling
                        066 W06 3  1              W06 Fall involving bed
                        066 X08 3  1              X08 Exposure to other specified smoke, fire and flames
                        066 X43 3  1              X43 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other drugs acting on the autonomic nervous system
                        068 C43 252  229          C43 Malignant melanoma of skin
                        068 J80 51  41            J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
                        072 N17 63  52            N17 Acute renal failure
                        074 B19 6  3              B19 Unspecified viral hepatitis
                        074 B45 6  3              B45 Cryptococcosis
                        074 C05 6  3              C05 Malignant neoplasm of palate
                        074 L02 6  3              L02 Cutaneous abscess, furuncle and carbuncle
                        074 X85 6  3              X85 Assault by drugs, medicaments and biological substances
                        076 G06 10  6             G06 Intracranial and intraspinal abscess and granuloma
                        076 Q90 65  54            Q90 Down's syndrome
                        076 X41 103  89           X41 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, anti-Parkinsonism and psychotropic drugs, not elsewhere classified
                        077 I26 208  188          I26 Pulmonary embolism
                        077 I42 595  561          I42 Cardiomyopathy
                        080 E66 282  259          E66 Obesity
                        087 I71 185  167          I71 Aortic aneurysm and dissection
                        087 L93 16  11            L93 Lupus erythematosus
                        087 R56 98  85            R56 Convulsions, not elsewhere classified
                        089 C55 72  61            C55 Malignant neoplasm of uterus, part unspecified
                        092 G47 31  24            G47 Sleep disorders
                        092 Y26 11  7             Y26 Exposure to smoke, fire and flames, undetermined intent
                        094 W80 51  42            W80 Inhalation and ingestion of other objects causing obstruction of respiratory tract
                        097 I40 24  18            I40 Acute myocarditis
                        100 B17 280  259          B17 Other acute viral hepatitis
                        105 A48 7  4              A48 Other bacterial diseases, not elsewhere classified
                        105 E03 7  4              E03 Other hypothyroidism
                        105 P24 7  4              P24 Neonatal aspiration syndromes
                        105 Q92 7  4              Q92 Other trisomies and partial trisomies of the autosomes, not elsewhere classified
                        105 V90 7  4              V90 Accident to watercraft causing drowning and submersion
                        107 X82 12  8             X82 Intentional self-harm by crashing of motor vehicle
                        108 C20 134  120          C20 Malignant neoplasm of rectum
                        109 C80 461  435          C80 Malignant neoplasm without specification of site
                        109 E78 100  88           E78 Disorders of lipoprotein metabolism and other lipidaemias
                        114 I80 87  76            I80 Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis
                        120 D84 28  22            D84 Other immunodeficiencies
                        122 D64 20  15            D64 Other anaemias
                        122 V13 20  15            V13 Pedal cyclist injured in collision with car, pick-up truck or van
                        126 K92 79  69            K92 Other diseases of digestive system
                        128 C83 40  33            C83 Diffuse non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
                        ...
                        992 W40 1  7              W40 Explosion of other materials
                        992 X73 145  177          X73 Intentional self-harm by rifle, shotgun and larger firearm discharge
                        993 C88 0  5              C88 Malignant immunoproliferative diseases
                        997 V57 55  80            V57 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in collision with fixed or stationary object
                        998 C92 175  218          C92 Myeloid leukaemia
                        999 O96 5  18             O96 Death from any obstetric cause occurring more than 42 days but less than one year after delivery
                        999 P10 1  12             P10 Intracranial laceration and haemorrhage due to birth injury
                        999 Q25 6  23             Q25 Congenital malformations of great arteries
                        999 V48 170  217          V48 Car occupant injured in noncollision transport accident

                        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        and those conditions that appear in both lists:

                        Code:
                        US deaths <60years compared to the average of the previous and following year
                        
                        p-value
                        ICD10-code
                        deaths per period
                        deaths per compared period
                        
                        
                        Oct+Nov 2009        Dec.2003
                        -------------------------------------------------------------
                        000 A41 1108  971   000 A41 551  480     A41 Other septicaemia
                        000 B34 41  20      000 B34 27  14       B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
                        000 J10 111  4      000 J10 66  2        J10 Influenza due to identified influenza virus
                        000 J11 289  7      000 J11 144  6       J11 Influenza, virus not identified
                        000 J15 117  63     000 J15 100  46      J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
                        000 J18 1182  679   000 J18 614  387     J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
                        000 J44 1604  1299  000 J44 715  565     J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
                        000 J12 55  7       003 J12 19  10       J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
                        001 J43 186  149    000 J43 128  95      J43 Emphysema
                        008 E27 18  10      000 E27 14  4        E27 Other disorders of adrenal gland
                        000 I50 503  429    018 I50 261  229     I50 Heart failure
                        001 Y12 221  181    017 Y12 172  146     Y12 Poisoning by and exposure to narcotics and psychodysleptics [hallucinogens], not elsewhere classified, undetermined intent
                        018 J20 13  7       000 J20 12  3        J20 Acute bronchitis
                        021 I25 5075  4936  000 I25 3056  2824   I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
                        029 I33 74  59      000 I33 50  32       I33 Acute and subacute endocarditis
                        
                        047 Y14 240  215    000 Y14 119  84      Y14 Poisoning by and exposure to other and unspecified drugs, medicaments and biological substances, undetermined intent
                        000 I62 378  306    056 I62 155  136     I62 Other nontraumatic intracranial haemorrhage
                        000 V95 61  40      064 V95 49  39       V95 Accident to powered aircraft causing injury to occupant
                        000 J80 191  83     068 J80 51  41       J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
                        000 I42 1051  942   077 I42 595  561     I42 Cardiomyopathy
                        002 K86 55  37      049 K86 43  33       K86 Other diseases of pancreas
                        081 G00 37  29      000 G00 48  22       G00 Bacterial meningitis, not elsewhere classified
                        082 O99 29  22      000 O99 13  5        O99 Other maternal diseases classifiable elsewhere but complicating pregnancy, childbirth and the puerperium
                        103 I11 1433  1386  000 I11 717  593     I11 Hypertensive heart disease
                        003 X41 274  232    076 X41 103  89      X41 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to antiepileptic, sedative-hypnotic, anti-Parkinsonism and psychotropic drugs, not elsewhere classified
                        006 I26 427  378    077 I26 208  188     I26 Pulmonary embolism
                        007 N18 497  445    020 N18 272  240     N18 Chronic renal failure
                        008 K74 1079  1003  011 K74 546  495     K74 Fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver
                        008 N17 173  144    072 N17 63  52       N17 Acute renal failure
                        009 C43 483  434    068 C43 252  229     C43 Malignant melanoma of skin
                        018 E66 545  498    080 E66 282  259     E66 Obesity
                        022 P22 105  86     033 P22 78  63       P22 Respiratory distress of newborn
                        024 D57 97  79      052 D57 53  42       D57 Sickle-cell disorders
                        031 Q90 118  99     076 Q90 65  54       Q90 Down's syndrome
                        038 V58 128  109    013 V58 107  86      V58 Occupant of pick-up truck or van injured in noncollision transport accident
                        040 C85 426  391    016 C85 284  250     C85 Other and unspecified types of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
                        040 W01 8  4        066 W01 3  1         W01 Fall on same level from slipping, tripping and stumbling
                        040 X47 84  69      005 X47 65  47       X47 Accidental poisoning by and exposure to other gases and vapours
                        048 M33 17  11      058 M33 9  5         M33 Dermatopolymyositis
                        050 G93 479  444    024 G93 209  182     G93 Other disorders of brain
                        050 W75 132  114    046 W75 50  39       W75 Accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed
                        058 K83 31  23      033 K83 15  9        K83 Other diseases of biliary tract
                        078 C71 865  824    022 C71 474  432     C71 Malignant neoplasm of brain
                        078 P29 171  153    042 P29 86  71       P29 Cardiovascular disorders originating in the perinatal period
                        087 V68 16  11      025 V68 18  11       V68 Occupant of heavy transport vehicle injured in noncollision transport accident
                        092 F14 50  41      033 F14 44  33       F14 Mental and behavioural disorders due to use of cocaine
                        092 X92 11  7       021 X92 7  3         X92 Assault by drowning and submersion
                        103 I71 286  265    087 I71 185  167     I71 Aortic aneurysm and dissection
                        105 C66 7  4        006 C66 4  1         C66 Malignant neoplasm of ureter
                        105 I89 7  4        038 I89 5  2         I89 Other non-infective disorders of lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes
                        105 J06 7  4        038 J06 5  2         J06 Acute upper respiratory infections of multiple and unspecified sites
                        121 B44 13  9       040 B44 8  4         B44 Aspergillosis
                        
                        
                        
                        
                        000 O96 57  30      999 O96 5  18        O96 Death from any obstetric cause occurring more than 42 days but less than one year after delivery
                        
                        996 C06 22  38      018 C06 21  13       C06 Malignant neoplasm of other and unspecified parts of mouth
                        999 F19 125  181    000 F19 136  97      F19 Mental and behavioural disorders due to multiple drug use and use of other psychoactive substances
                        999 V09 291  373    008 V09 163  135     V09 Pedestrian injured in other and unspecified transport accidents
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: mortality statistics



                          remarkable is the period of high winter mortality in England from 1900-1970,
                          which was not seen in USA and presumably not in continental Europe - I can't
                          find the data.
                          That was a surprise, I didn't know that. What caused it and what caused
                          the decline in the 60s ? Clean air act ? And is it all triggered by flu ?

                          Countries, WHO,UNO spent much effort to collect death data - but usually only
                          yearly and the years wrap in the mid of winter.
                          So seasonality of deaths is little understood, little examined, mysterious...

                          Another open question is, whether there was flu in England 1860-1988 .
                          It was not reported, but it is supposed that it induced protection for 1918.


                          we had a decline in English winter-excess-deaths in the 1960s and another decline since 2000

                          ----------------------------------------------------------------

                          English data:



                          Registrar General (by date)&active=yes&treestate=contract&titlepos=0


                          [evil google link removed]


                          Annual report of the Registrar-General of births, deaths and marriages in England (1837)




                          [url]http://histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/PageBrowser?path=Browse/
                          Registrar General (by date)

                          ---------------------------------------------------------------
                          Began in 1926
                          Later Title Registrar General's weekly return for England and Wales births and deaths, infectious
                          diseases, weather Former Title Weekly return of births and deaths registered in county boroughs
                          and other great towns and of cases of certain specified infectious diseases ... in England and Wales


                          ----------------------------------------------------------


                          e1875c.gif - that doesn't look like a flu-wave as we know it. Too short. Only 1-2 weeks increasing
                          and decreasing . Glasgow looks more like a normal flu-wave , unfortunately the data
                          for 1875 is missing. Was that the H1 that induced immunity for 1918 ?
                          It could have been weather related, the decline comes when temperature increased

                          ----------
                          hard to say, this isn't openly been talked about, but I get the impression that the English
                          data is not freely available, somehow copyrighted, they want money for it. (?)
                          some of the old registrar general's weekly returns are reprinted in 2012 and offered at amazon.
                          But of course, nowadays we don't want books, we need the data computer-readable
                          ----------

                          ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
                          Massachusetts :
                          Births, Marriages and Deaths IN THE COMMONWEALTH,


                          ...when this abstract was written the current reports include detailed data on births, deaths, marriages and divorces; natality (birth) data includes number of...
                          Attached Files
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: mortality statistics




                            Seasonality in human mortality: a demographic approach
                            Rau, R.
                            Monographie , Dissertation , 2007


                            my summary of their summary:

                            [North-South increase of seasonality of deaths ==> ]
                            Thus, social and cultural influences play an integral part in mediating seasonal fluctuations
                            in mortality

                            [I don't see this conclusion, it could be biological, viruses, humidity, immunity, nutrition,...]

                            cold-related mortality increases with age

                            Seasonal mortality over time increased slightly since the 1970. This reflects probably
                            the widespread introduction of air conditioning which makes summer mortality decrease
                            at a faster pace than mortality is decreasing during any other season of the year.

                            [no evidence for that, IMO. variations in US-summer mortality are too low to have a measurable effect]

                            It should have been assumed from comparative European studies that warmer
                            regions in the US show larger fluctuations in seasonality than colder regions.
                            We found, however, no differences.

                            [I think, I did found that. i.e. Florida. North-South increase was big in the 60s but declined over time ,
                            see above in this thread
                            and now is almost gone , USA as well Europe , i.e. Greece , Florida]

                            We did not find support that marital status has an important influence on seasonal mortality.

                            The less years spent in formal education, the higher are the annual fluctuations in mortality.

                            Denmark = ?El Dorado? wrt. quality and wealth of data

                            women?s excess mortality surpasses the one of men in Denmark.

                            Despite our findings for the United States, we could not detect any effect of
                            socio-economic status on seasonal mortality in Denmark

                            If people are living alone they have higher relative mortality risks in winter

                            We calculated that at age 50 about 0.8 years of life years could be won for women and about
                            1 year of life for men. [if we could eliminate winter excess mortality]

                            [see also the liverpool thread, the 1885 Farr-article, the connection cold periods-->deaths
                            in England, at least until 1920 (data 1870-1879 easily available)]
                            --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            [112] Lone Frank. When an entire country is a cohort. Science, 287:2398?
                            2399, 2000.
                            [7] Otto Andersen. Register data for research. Presentation given at the
                            course ?The data of Denmark?, Odense, DK, 30 April 2001, 2001.
                            [96] Eurostat. Statistics on Persons in Denmark. a register-based statistical
                            system. Technical report, Office for Official Publications of the European
                            Communities, Luxembourg, LUX, 2001.
                            [349] Axel Skytthe. The Fundament for Danish Register Research. Civil Reg-
                            istration System. Presentation given at the course ?The data of Den-
                            mark?, Odense, DK, 30 April 2001, 2000.
                            [287] J?rn Korsbo Petersen. The Danish Demographic Database - longitu-
                            dinal data for advanced demographic methods. Research Report 15,
                            Danish Center for Demographic Research. SDU - Odense University,
                            Odense, DK, 2000.

                            NSI = national statistics institute ?
                            they may access the data, I couldn't figure out yet whether a gsgs may access the data

                            Denmark has in the past only allowed access to micro data on-site at Statistics
                            Denmark.

                            ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                            Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-rel …

                            excess winter mortality in subtropical Guangzhou
                            was due to (52%) cardiovascular diseases and (24%) respiratory diseases.
                            -1C ==> +1.38% +0.88% in deaths the same+next month.

                            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Attached Files
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: mortality statistics

                              more papers on seasonality of deaths:
                              +links etc.

                              Precipitation during spring and autumn increased mortality spring RR 0.982, 1.018 per cm.
                              Higher springtime temperature decreased annual mortality, while higher summer
                              temperature increased the death toll; however, both were only borderline significant (p=0.07).
                              The significant effect of springtime precipitation for mortality was present only in the first two
                              periods (1749-1785 and 1786-1824). On the contrary, the overall effect of autumn precipitation
                              was mainly due to its relevance during the last period, 1825-1859 (RR 1.024, CI 0.997-1.052).
                              At that time, higher winter precipitation was found to decrease mortality.
                              CONCLUSIONS:

                              In urban Uppsala, during the 18th and 19th century, precipitation appeared to be a stronger
                              predictor for mortality than temperature. Higher spring precipitation decreased and higher
                              autumn precipitation increased the number of deaths.
                              However, this association differed before and during the early stages of industrialisation.
                              Further research shall take age-specific differences into account, as well as changes in
                              socio-economic conditions during that time.

                              -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Patients admitted in the winter in Dublin,2002-2011 had an 17&#37; increased risk of an
                              in-hospital death by 30 days; this is related to cold along with increased illness severity
                              and co-morbidity burden.
                              The disease profile is different with winter admissions.
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Cantabria (northern Spain) in the years 2004-2005; n=3948 deaths
                              people aged 75 years or more were especially susceptible to cold temperatures
                              (OR = 17.9; 95% CI: 2.38-134.8). Cardiovascular (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.88-3.67)
                              and respiratory mortality (OR = 2.72; 95% CI: 1.46-5.08) showed a weaker effect.------
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              The data available suggest that exposure to cold, either through exposure to low environmental
                              temperatures or during induced hypothermia, increases the risk of developing upper and lower
                              respiratory tract infections and dying from them; in addition, the longer the duration of exposure
                              the higher the risk of infection. Although not all studies agree, most of the available evidence
                              from laboratory and clinical studies suggests that inhaled cold air, cooling of the body surface
                              and cold stress induced by lowering the core body temperature cause pathophysiological
                              responses such as vasoconstriction in the respiratory tract mucosa and suppression of
                              immune responses, which are responsible for increased susceptibility to infections
                              --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              "Eurowinter"
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Italian cities,2001,pop=7M
                              for ozone, positive associations were commonly found for death and hospital admissions
                              for both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases
                              4.9% and -0.4% for SO2, 1.7% and 0.6% for NO2; 2.3% and 0.2% for CO. Corresponding
                              figures for PM10 at lag 0-1 were 1.1% and 0.2%. larger effects in cities located in Central
                              and Southern Italy (
                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              high indices of cold-related mortality were associated with high mean winter temperatures,
                              low living-room temperatures, limited bedroom heating, low proportions of people wearing hats,
                              gloves, and anoraks, and inactivity and shivering when outdoors at 7 degrees C (p < 0.01 for
                              all-cause mortality and respiratory mortality; p > 0.05 for mortality from ischaemic heart
                              disease and cerebrovascular disease).
                              -------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              The daily death statistics were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics
                              data collection from the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages

                              Daily Death Statistics, Massachusetts:
                              2004.

                              A 10 mg/m3increase in PM10was associated with a 0.36% increase in daily death

                              Numbers of daily deaths were obtained from the Central. Bureau of Statistics for
                              1986–94. Netherlands.

                              In a time-series study in the Netherlands, we found a strong
                              association between the day-to-day variation in pollen
                              concentrations and that of deaths due to cardiovascular disease,
                              chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia.



                              Beijing Statistical yearbook (2011).
                              Availble:http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/nj/main/2011-t​jnj/index.htm[accessed 14 June 2013].

                              ---------------------------------------------------------

                              new PLOS policy to ask/require authors to publish their data
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: mortality statistics

                                UNO




                                95 countries, monthly deaths, 1980-2013 (with gaps)
                                (eurostat is better here, monthly deaths since 1960 for some country,
                                but Europe lacks the tropical countries)
                                and, of course, USA is best with the NCHS death-certificates, once you
                                downloaded and converted all the data ... USA is almost as big as Europe
                                but still no tropical weather for the better study of seasonality of deaths

                                I added all the years to show the seasonality


                                25 months years Jan-Jan to show the seasonality


                                [looking for latitudes of the capitals data, where to find it ?]


                                and the same for deaths from influenza only
                                and the same for respiratory deaths only
                                and the same for circulatory deaths only

                                then ignore periods with flu-deaths to get the effect of temperature
                                on pneumonia and circulatory deaths

                                I think it's not the absolute temperature that matters (the killing effect of the decrease therof)
                                but changes in temperature
                                (after we humans somehow "adapted" to the current temperature)


                                or/and some viruses,bacteria who prefer the colder weather ?
                                Attached Files
                                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                                Comment

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