Announcement

**gsgs** · April 26, 2012, 08:19 AM

Re: mortality statistics

The Southeast Missourian - Google News Archive Search

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1893&dat=19760815&id=QbUtAAAAIBAJ&sjid=XdUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=1197,5054559

William Sanders , national heart and lung institute
prescribing drugs for high blood pressure

130000 Vietnamese refugees

John Armstrong, chief of mortality statistics at the census bureau

better medical care, better diet , better access to medical care

Ocala Star-Banner - Google News Archive Search

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1356&dat=19760801&id=jcwwAAAAIBAJ&sjid=mQUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5334,74761

----------------------------------

just in USA, not in Canada,Europe ?

the (suddenly increased speed of) decline in deaths was seen in
deaths from multiple causes, including diabetes,bronchitis,
pneumonia, liver/gallbladder/pancreas,ischemic heart disease,
but most from stroke and hypertensive disease.
But not in cancer deaths.

We typically see this multi-decline each year in summer.
(seasonality of deaths)
But the 1974-1976 decline is profound and long-lived.

Deaths from smog, air-pollution gives a similar patter
of causes, but the effect should not have been so big,
whatever pollutant might have been reduced starting
in 1974.
Maybe a general change in diet of the elderly
or food additives ? Or sudden availability of blood-pressure
measurement for the masses ? Some health campaign ?

**gsgs** · July 27, 2012, 08:52 PM

Re: mortality statistics

Medicaid expansion in U.S. states cut death rates, Harvard study shows

http://newyork.newsday.com/news/nation/medicaid-expansion-in-u-s-states-cut-death-rates-harvard-study-shows-1.3861942

remember how US-death rates went down so much in 2012, I posted about it.
The P+I - death ratio also went down.

Is it "Obamacare" ? Which reduces i.e.pneumonia deaths more than other deaths like cancer-deaths

was there a similar program in 1974 so to explain the 1974-1976 US-death-decline-mystery ?

**gsgs** · September 5, 2012, 10:30 AM

Re: mortality statistics

Code:

winter-deaths/(previous)summer-deaths

average 2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  country
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 1.020 ,-----,-----,-----,1.012,.9998,1.041,1.007,1.041,-----,Russia
 1.054 ,1.062,1.060,1.100,1.050,1.046,1.049,1.055,1.063,1.007,Slowakia
 1.069 ,1.028,1.088,1.159,1.093,1.062,1.133,1.074,.9929,.9990,Iceland
 1.070 ,-----,-----,-----,1.079,1.056,1.067,1.078,-----,-----,Belarus
 1.074 ,1.123,1.048,1.110,1.040,1.032,1.086,1.096,1.077,1.055,Czech
 1.075 ,1.060,1.083,1.056,1.050,1.101,1.083,1.101,1.086,1.059,Finland
 1.080 ,1.087,1.062,1.137,1.071,1.059,1.067,1.102,1.076,1.067,Slowenia
 1.084 ,1.107,1.122,1.099,1.121,1.095,1.073,1.027,1.055,1.060,Estonia
 1.084 ,1.119,1.081,1.096,1.068,1.055,1.113,1.118,1.059,1.050,Poland
 1.085 ,1.101,1.116,1.108,1.080,1.100,1.036,1.081,1.059,-----,Grece
 1.089 ,1.098,1.087,1.121,1.146,1.110,1.056,1.045,1.101,1.043,Lituania
 1.089 ,1.107,1.094,1.095,1.073,1.063,1.078,1.129,1.103,1.059,Danmark
 1.090 ,1.132,1.092,1.135,1.063,1.075,1.055,1.103,1.087,1.072,Ungarn
 1.094 ,1.134,1.035,1.110,1.081,1.051,1.126,1.142,1.108,1.060,Germany
 1.094 ,1.135,1.111,1.126,1.106,1.114,1.075,1.060,1.077,1.042,Latvia
 1.095 ,1.084,1.101,1.109,1.080,1.103,1.083,1.114,1.091,----,,Norway
 1.095 ,1.103,1.074,1.114,1.103,1.054,1.131,1.118,1.100,1.062,Netherlands
 1.095 ,1.118,.9955,1.138,1.148,1.071,1.024,1.155,1.157,1.049,Luxemburg
 1.096 ,-----,-----,-----,1.109,1.083,1.098,-----,-----,-----,Ukraine
 1.104 ,1.096,1.012,1.168,1.102,1.079,1.138,1.143,1.110,1.089,France
 1.105 ,1.098,1.083,1.135,1.084,1.099,1.108,1.119,1.111,1.109,Sweden
 1.105 ,1.130,1.069,1.152,1.092,1.059,1.102,1.151,1.089,-----,Austria
 1.105 ,1.153,.8532,1.322,1.142,1.020,1.145,1.126,1.084,-----,Liechtenstein
 1.107 ,1.099,1.014,1.172,1.105,1.082,1.141,1.148,1.114,1.093,France(metrop.)
 1.109 ,1.096,1.077,1.140,1.107,1.089,1.120,1.142,1.104,-----,EFTA
 1.110 ,1.144,1.088,1.159,1.099,1.150,1.097,1.086,1.096,1.078,(Mazedonia)
 1.111 ,-----,-----,1.157,1.112,1.105,1.096,1.104,1.095,-----,Bosnia
 1.112 ,1.124,1.060,1.155,1.102,1.086,1.128,1.135,-----,-----,EU,25
 1.113 ,1.105,1.061,1.160,1.127,1.081,1.146,1.163,1.116,1.061,Schweiz
 1.113 ,1.124,1.061,1.155,1.102,1.087,1.127,1.135,-----,-----,EWR,(EU-25+IS,LI,NO)
 1.113 ,1.154,1.131,1.186,1.071,1.065,1.110,1.105,1.083,-----,Serbia
 1.115 ,1.127,1.045,1.169,1.106,1.085,1.136,1.137,-----,-----,Euro,17
 1.115 ,1.127,1.045,1.170,1.106,1.085,1.136,1.138,-----,-----,Euro,16
 1.116 ,1.129,1.044,1.171,1.107,1.086,1.138,1.139,-----,-----,Euro,15
 1.116 ,1.130,1.071,1.156,1.104,1.089,1.128,1.134,-----,-----,EWR,(EU-27+IS,LI,NO)
 1.116 ,1.130,1.071,1.157,1.105,1.089,1.129,1.135,-----,-----,EU,27
 1.116 ,1.159,1.079,1.175,1.104,1.100,1.102,1.120,1.090,-----,Croatia
 1.119 ,1.157,1.010,1.216,1.124,1.089,1.147,1.106,1.111,1.117,Italia
 1.122 ,-----,-----,-----,1.104,1.153,1.133,1.117,1.103,-----,Aserbaidschan
 1.129 ,1.121,1.081,1.173,1.120,1.082,1.170,1.162,1.123,1.131,Belgium
 1.134 ,1.134,1.100,1.134,1.146,1.142,1.139,1.164,1.119,-----,Ireland
 1.135 ,1.118,1.112,1.147,1.128,1.122,1.136,1.161,1.152,1.144,UK
 1.147 ,1.206,1.179,1.176,1.176,1.138,1.150,1.105,1.134,1.064,Bulgaria
 1.148 ,1.203,1.220,1.174,1.115,1.106,1.136,1.145,1.159,1.081,Rumania
 1.151 ,1.138,1.079,1.269,1.139,1.149,1.170,1.164,1.122,1.134,Spain
 1.155 ,1.156,1.214,1.205,1.067,1.219,1.076,1.154,-----,-----,Cyprus
 1.199 ,-----,-----,-----,1.201,1.172,1.154,1.188,1.283,-----,Moldava
 1.214 ,1.180,1.147,1.330,1.200,1.197,1.218,1.285,1.214,1.161,Portugal
 1.216 ,-----,-----,-----,-----,-----,1.228,1.233,1.187,-----,Georgia
 1.231 ,1.227,1.200,1.332,1.271,1.113,1.271,1.204,1.133,1.336,Malta

Code:

deaths from respiratory causes per 1M population
2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010
-------------------------------------------------------------------
 470 , 497 , 514 , 468 , 495 , 446 , 464 , 453 , 436 , 000 ,EU27
 468 , 490 , 516 , 466 , 492 , 440 , 444 , 444 , 430 , 000 ,EU15
 000 , 000 , 000 , 650 , 689 , 602 , 000 , 000 , 000 , 000 ,Belgium
 392 , 347 , 361 , 331 , 437 , 402 , 423 , 417 , 397 , 382 ,Bulgaria
 376 , 382 , 423 , 373 , 463 , 420 , 412 , 402 , 438 , 410 ,Czech
 662 , 715 , 712 , 641 , 610 , 606 , 639 , 625 , 665 , 000 ,Denmark
 362 , 396 , 424 , 379 , 401 , 370 , 380 , 377 , 395 , 370 ,Germany
 368 , 363 , 371 , 335 , 275 , 286 , 270 , 265 , 239 , 000 ,Estonia
1056 ,1001 ,1002 , 888 , 899 , 892 , 671 , 693 , 706 , 603 ,Ireland
 450 , 482 , 460 , 467 , 483 , 495 , 549 , 535 , 537 , 491 ,Greece
 560 , 603 , 616 , 533 , 618 , 505 , 545 , 528 , 503 , 452 ,Spain
 324 , 336 , 355 , 297 , 330 , 278 , 278 , 273 , 276 , 000 ,France
 323 , 335 , 356 , 296 , 330 , 277 , 277 , 272 , 275 , 000 ,France_metrop
 318 , 329 , 364 , 000 , 000 , 291 , 296 , 286 , 294 , 000 ,Italy
 000 , 000 , 000 , 405 , 420 , 376 , 403 , 363 , 394 , 000 ,Cyprus
 286 , 304 , 293 , 280 , 331 , 327 , 312 , 250 , 227 , 223 ,Latvia
 371 , 394 , 390 , 391 , 424 , 413 , 461 , 395 , 357 , 000 ,Lithuania
 495 , 608 , 642 , 477 , 446 , 404 , 432 , 398 , 439 , 365 ,Luxembourg
 336 , 360 , 414 , 391 , 477 , 455 , 480 , 434 , 443 , 425 ,Hungary
 812 , 765 , 715 , 673 , 605 , 535 , 522 , 536 , 511 , 472 ,Malta
 606 , 601 , 624 , 549 , 601 , 561 , 542 , 534 , 528 , 481 ,Netherlands
 309 , 325 , 402 , 345 , 350 , 320 , 318 , 286 , 283 , 000 ,Austria
 389 , 376 , 413 , 393 , 422 , 406 , 414 , 400 , 418 , 382 ,Poland
 585 , 593 , 598 , 530 , 666 , 659 , 605 , 620 , 637 , 595 ,Portugal
 638 , 686 , 624 , 603 , 570 , 531 , 518 , 495 , 506 , 000 ,Romania
 547 , 564 , 618 , 560 , 517 , 433 , 354 , 364 , 378 , 324 ,Slovenia
 524 , 551 , 588 , 543 , 560 , 516 , 538 , 499 , 517 , 524 ,Slovakia
 503 , 494 , 458 , 369 , 300 , 250 , 258 , 223 , 244 , 213 ,Finland
 355 , 381 , 359 , 327 , 344 , 308 , 308 , 314 , 307 , 000 ,Sweden
 781 , 801 , 853 , 792 , 809 , 745 , 737 , 747 , 696 , 677 ,UK
 417 , 415 , 414 , 391 , 473 , 392 , 393 , 434 , 423 , 000 ,Iceland
 562 , 595 , 512 , 446 , 510 , 488 , 510 , 499 , 494 , 000 ,Norway
 316 , 330 , 331 , 301 , 327 , 276 , 272 , 262 , 285 , 255 ,Switzerland
 349 , 374 , 461 , 489 , 522 , 391 , 408 , 337 , 332 , 281 ,Croatia
 326 , 357 , 432 , 397 , 413 , 375 , 376 , 378 , 334 , 000 ,(Macedonia)

Code:

correlations of yearly respiratory deathrates 2001-2009

m=33 n=9 
corr.               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1 EU27           --  98 -31   2  54  66  68  64 -60  96  93  93  89  47  14  81 -25  64  86  82 -12 -19  72  79  89  68  83  93  28  41  84  58  59   1 EU27          
  2 EU15           98  -- -37   2  54  66  72  72 -71  93  96  96  94  40 - 1  82 -32  69  89  84 -13 -20  75  87  88  72  84  96  30  36  89  58  58   2 EU15          
  3 Bulgaria      -31 -37  --  64 -64 -18 -70 -50  54 -12 -37 -36 -54  14  44 -66  68 -59 -23 -37  62  77 -67 -65 -35 -63 -47 -42  50 - 4 -42 -11 - 6   3 Bulgaria      
  4 Czech           2   2  64  -- -31  49 -60 -30  31  15 - 1   0 - 3  15  23 -24  78 -56   0  13  88  82 -48 -26  19 -52 -27 - 9  59 -22   0  29  35   4 Czech         
  5 Denmark        54  54 -64 -31  --  54  65  45 -32  46  62  62  56 -21 -41  90 -59  62  49  34 -39 -42  67  54  52  73  69  42 -15  56  58 -15 - 6   5 Denmark       
  6 Germany        66  66 -18  49  54  --  15  14 -12  64  59  60  66   2 - 5  64  18   8  43  66  36  12  23  40  78  19  39  52  34   6  55  42  60   6 Germany       
  7 Estonia        68  72 -70 -60  65  15  --  87 -84  55  77  77  73  25 -25  81 -80  94  76  57 -63 -60  92  88  54  95  82  77 -23  46  71  17  11   7 Estonia       
  8 Ireland        64  72 -50 -30  45  14  87  -- -95  58  82  82  71  40 -30  68 -69  89  88  55 -48 -25  88  90  51  87  82  75   2  48  82  26   8   8 Ireland       
  9 Greece        -60 -71  54  31 -32 -12 -84 -95  -- -52 -77 -76 -76 -33  33 -59  65 -85 -79 -61  40  37 -81 -93 -52 -80 -71 -78 - 2 -22 -78 -41 -21   9 Greece        
 10 Spain          96  93 -12  15  46  64  55  58 -52  --  91  91  80  47  16  71 -18  59  85  70 - 5 - 3  66  69  83  61  82  85  48  51  85  53  50  10 Spain         
 11 France         93  96 -37 - 1  62  59  77  82 -77  91  --  99  90  36 -15  85 -45  79  95  74 -20 -17  83  89  82  82  91  89  30  52  95  44  36  11 France        
 12 France_metrop  93  96 -36   0  62  60  77  82 -76  91  99  --  91  36 -14  85 -44  79  95  75 -18 -17  82  89  83  82  91  90  31  51  95  44  38  12 France_metrop 
 13 Italy          89  94 -54 - 3  56  66  73  71 -76  80  90  91  --  28 -12  82 -35  68  79  89 - 8 -37  74  91  91  72  75  92  14  16  88  66  58  13 Italy         
 14 Latvia         47  40  14  15 -21   2  25  40 -33  47  36  36  28  --  69  11  19  16  51  50   2  22  30  31  44  17  28  46   0  19  33  56  41  14 Latvia        
 15 Lithuania      14 - 1  44  23 -41 - 5 -25 -30  33  16 -15 -14 -12  69  -- -25  61 -36 - 7  18  29  21 -24 -28  17 -34 -22   3 - 8 - 9 -22  40  41  15 Lithuania     
 16 Luxembourg     81  82 -66 -24  90  64  81  68 -59  71  85  85  82  11 -25  -- -55  74  75  67 -35 -40  83  80  77  84  84  75 - 6  51  80  19  25  16 Luxembourg    
 17 Hungary       -25 -32  68  78 -59  18 -80 -69  65 -18 -45 -44 -35  19  61 -55  -- -87 -43 - 2  84  64 -77 -61 - 5 -84 -66 -34  20 -51 -47  26  39  17 Hungary       
 18 Malta          64  69 -59 -56  62   8  94  89 -85  59  79  79  68  16 -36  74 -87  --  78  41 -66 -55  94  86  46  98  88  70 - 1  59  79  11 - 6  18 Malta         
 19 Netherlands    86  89 -23   0  49  43  76  88 -79  85  95  95  79  51 - 7  75 -43  78  --  69 -19 - 3  79  83  72  80  87  85  27  57  89  37  30  19 Netherlands   
 20 Austria        82  84 -37  13  34  66  57  55 -61  70  74  75  89  50  18  67 - 2  41  69  --  14 -20  50  75  92  47  49  87   0 - 6  66  77  81  20 Austria       
 21 Poland        -12 -13  62  88 -39  36 -63 -48  40 - 5 -20 -18 - 8   2  29 -35  84 -66 -19  14  --  59 -65 -38  13 -61 -53 -19  33 -50 -21  31  38  21 Poland        
 22 Portugal      -19 -20  77  82 -42  12 -60 -25  37 - 3 -17 -17 -37  22  21 -40  64 -55 - 3 -20  59  -- -49 -44 -18 -53 -28 -29  52   5 -18 - 9   1  22 Portugal      
 23 Romania        72  75 -67 -48  67  23  92  88 -81  66  83  82  74  30 -24  83 -77  94  79  50 -65 -49  --  89  59  96  93  73 - 4  60  85  22   3  23 Romania       
 24 Slovenia       79  87 -65 -26  54  40  88  90 -93  69  89  89  91  31 -28  80 -61  86  83  75 -38 -44  89  --  73  86  83  89   4  28  89  50  35  24 Slovenia      
 25 Slovakia       89  88 -35  19  52  78  54  51 -52  83  82  83  91  44  17  77 - 5  46  72  92  13 -18  59  73  --  54  62  82  12  15  79  71  67  25 Slovakia      
 26 Finland        68  72 -63 -52  73  19  95  87 -80  61  82  82  72  17 -34  84 -84  98  80  47 -61 -53  96  86  54  --  90  70 - 8  62  81  10 - 4  26 Finland       
 27 Sweden         83  84 -47 -27  69  39  82  82 -71  82  91  91  75  28 -22  84 -66  88  87  49 -53 -28  93  83  62  90  --  78  23  72  90  19  10  27 Sweden        
 28 UK             93  96 -42 - 9  42  52  77  75 -78  85  89  90  92  46   3  75 -34  70  85  87 -19 -29  73  89  82  70  78  --  19  23  81  64  65  28 UK            
 29 Iceland        28  30  50  59 -15  34 -23   2 - 2  48  30  31  14   0 - 8 - 6  20 - 1  27   0  33  52 - 4   4  12 - 8  23  19  --  19  33  20  16  29 Iceland       
 30 Norway         41  36 - 4 -22  56   6  46  48 -22  51  52  51  16  19 - 9  51 -51  59  57 - 6 -50   5  60  28  15  62  72  23  19  --  48 -36 -40  30 Norway        
 31 Switzerland    84  89 -42   0  58  55  71  82 -78  85  95  95  88  33 -22  80 -47  79  89  66 -21 -18  85  89  79  81  90  81  33  48  --  47  26  31 Switzerland   
 32 Croatia        58  58 -11  29 -15  42  17  26 -41  53  44  44  66  56  40  19  26  11  37  77  31 - 9  22  50  71  10  19  64  20 -36  47  --  81  32 Croatia       
 33 (Macedonia)    59  58 - 6  35 - 6  60  11   8 -21  50  36  38  58  41  41  25  39 - 6  30  81  38   1   3  35  67 - 4  10  65  16 -40  26  81  --  33 (Macedonia)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
corr.               1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31  32  33

Attached Files

**gsgs** · November 10, 2012, 11:44 PM

Re: mortality statistics

do more deaths occur in winter, if we go South (closer to the equator) ?

Attached Files

**gsgs** · November 11, 2012, 06:23 AM

Re: mortality statistics

2010 is available now and downloaded.

However, I wonder whether those data are complete or additional
death-certificates will be added later
I can't find my numbers with google

monthly USA-deaths 2001-2010

Code:

 226976  226269  224460  238085  226822  220491  222496  224358  223341  223161 
 198968  209729  200835  204474  213660  201424  205101  223866  200750  200596 
 215850  226773  213873  210338  231486  222616  218521  233149  216539  219278 
 203027  200051  199672  196664  205188  202438  203303  207206  203284  202607 
 200929  200130  199478  194756  201211  201005  200107  202821  200802  204244 
 191547  188004  191861  186578  187732  188790  188620  190999  191283  192813 
 191578  193578  193996  191099  191821  194983  192725  192404  194924  199391 
 191284  191314  192864  189725  191183  191345  192169  192327  192857  197269 
 189107  187837  188803  184769  185855  188479  188808  188135  190016  193424 
 202679  200253  203089  198484  198348  202552  198969  200910  207592  207146 
 197400  202580  201375  194091  198943  200775  200535  201922  201668  206429 
 210615  220278  241848  212337  220257  215827  216989  218714  218163  226184 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2419960 2446796 2452154 2401400 2452506 2430725 2428343 2476811 2441219 2472542

just one google-hit if I delete the latest numbers:
pfortuny.net/doc/metodos.pdf

OK, CDC gives "resident deaths" as 2423712,2471984,2437163 for 2007,2008,2009
I might have to check for residency to get the correct numbers

that gives corrections for foreigner's death certificates in 1959...2010 of:
0
0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
1935,1934,1029*2,2123,2088,2256,2467,2509,2839,293 5
3296,3285,3236,2989,2935,2938,3023,3019,3197(+101) ,3393(+123)
3427(+141),3542(+139),3574(+149),3394,3294,3119,35 22,3341,3452,3472
3842,3535,3409,3866,3785,4489,4461,4631,4827,4056
4107

that doesn't change the statistics much, just for googling the numbers

new corrected numbers of US-deaths 1959...2010 :

1660172
1711982,1701522,1756720,1813549,1798051,1828136,18 63149,1851323,1930082,1921990
1921031,1927542,1963944,1973003,1934388,1892879,19 09440,1899597,1927788,1913841
1989841,1978032,1974725,2019201,2039369,2086440,21 05361,2123323,2167999,2150466
2148463,2169518,2175613,2268553,2278994,2312132,23 14690,2314245,2337256,2391399
2403351,2416425,2443387,2448288,2397615,2448017,24 26264,2423712,2471984,2437163
2468435

**gsgs** · November 12, 2012, 11:41 PM

Re: mortality statistics

Excess mortality associated with influenza A and B virus in Hong Kong, 1998-2009 - PubMed

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23045622

Influenza was associated with a substantial number of excess deaths each year, mainly among the elderly, in Hong Kong in the past decade. The influenza-associated excess mortality rates were generally similar in Hong Kong and the United States.

annual flu excess deaths 1998-2009 in HK :111/M (95%CI=[72,146]) (USA:133)
751 (95% CI: 488-990) flu-excess deaths annually, 95% of them in elderly >65y.
53% respiratory 18% cardiovascular.
H3N2 worse than H1N1 or B

**gsgs** · December 29, 2012, 08:32 PM

Re: mortality statistics

report about excess winter mortality in the UK :

UK Government Web Archive

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_288362.pdf

This Page is [ARCHIVED CONTENT] and shows what the site page http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_288362.pdf looked like on 5 Jan 2016 at 16:07:09

20th century mortality tables for England and Wales
by sex,age-group,cause,year

UK Government Web Archive

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-215593

This Page is [ARCHIVED CONTENT] and shows what the site page http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html looked like on 5 Jan 2016 at 16:07:09

UK Government Web Archive

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-276237

This Page is [ARCHIVED CONTENT] and shows what the site page http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html looked like on 5 Jan 2016 at 16:07:09

"excel" - format only. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Excel
Maybe someone can convert it all to normal ...

----------------edit---------------------
paper associating the decrease in seasonal deaths in England since 2000
to a change in vaccination strategy:

Page not available - PMC

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3733298/

Attached Files

**gsgs** · March 6, 2013, 06:22 AM

Re: mortality statistics

examining double-peaks due to cocirculating strains with different
timings
(where daily data are available : 1962-1967,1972-1988)

examining how immunity favours other strains in the next season

CDC exists since 1946, but the first influenza surveillance reports
are from 1957. Are there flu-reports from earlier ?
CDC always had the weekly mortality data from the 108...122 US-cities.
Are these available from before 1996 , before 1959 ?

data in file us59_3.txt below and below from CDC-reports :

Code:

season,H1,H2,H3,B
1957f,0,99e,0,0
1958f,1e,24e,0,75e
1959f,3,94,0,3
1960f,3e,66noflu,0,31noflu
1961f,1e,4e,0,95e
1962f,0,99,0,0
1963f,0,95e,0,5e
1964f,0,70e,0,30e
1965f,0,40e,0,60e
1966f,0,50e,0,50e
1967f,0,95,0,5
1968f,0,1e,84,15
1969f,0,0,90e,10e
1970f,0,0,85,5
1971f,0,0,99,1
1972f,0,0,96,4
1973f,0,0,24,76
1974f,0,0,99,0
1975f,0,0,98,2
1976f,0,0,30,70
1977f,29e,0,70e,1e
1978f,97e,0,0e,3e
1979f,1,0,1,98
1980f,24,0,76,0
1981f,25,0,1,74
1982f,10,0,79,11
1983f,50,0,5,45
1984f,0,0,97,3
1985f,0,0,24,76
1986f,99,0,0,1
1987f,8,0,75,17
1988f,49,0,7,43
1989f,1,0,98,0
1990f,6,0,8,86
1991f,18,0,81,1
1992f,3,0,26,71
1993f,1,0,98,1
1994f,2,0,72,26
1995f,50,0,35,15
1996f,0,0,78(65),22
1997f,0,0,99,1
1998f,1,0,76,23
1999f,4,0,95,1
2000f,51,0,2,47
2001f,1,0,84,14
2002f,40,0,17,44
2003f,0,0,99,1
2004f,0,0,75,25
2005f,6,0,74,19
2006f,49,0,30,21
2007f,19,0,52,29
2008f,40(76),0,21,38
2009f,99mx,0,0,0
2010f,28,0,46,26
2011f,21,0,61,18
2012f,1,0,76,22

----------------edit-------------------
charts sea41.gif added on 2012/02/25

seasonality of deaths , USA,Europe,dominant flu-strains

Attached Files

**gsgs** · March 12, 2013, 12:33 AM

Re: mortality statistics

see here, how the 1918-pandemic actually _reduced_ the deathrates
in the elderly in a profound and longlasting manner.

The effect is most clearly seen in the >35 age-groups

The years 1918-1920 were bad, but they were necessary
to build up immunity, so (young) people stopped dying from it.

It is the pattern since today, that H1 rarely kills, but H3 often kills
the elderly - it's still not clear why, afaik.
They are dying from respiratory issues, but also from ischemic heart
disease, even diabetes and other causes. Txpically influenza is not
noticed in these deaths. I'm speculating that (H3,not H1)
immun responses are somehow confusing the whole meatabolism
which makes them more vulnerable to blood-clumbs and such.

Serological evidence had been reported, that before 1918 there
was also H3. Which apparently was killed by H1N1 in 1918

here is the data, so others can find and reuse it

deathrates per million population, USA
(file eaage12

Code:

deathrate from P+I for 11 age groups
1900,2022,16821,3866,382,481,762,1141,1752,3294,6924,15313,28995
1901,1972,15203,3153,344,493,769,1122,1689,3327,7246,17468,36102
1902,1613,16508,3563,315,374,564,841,1272,2322,4775,10490,19161
1903,1693,15400,3088,306,378,616,944,1432,2690,5673,13279,25510
1904,1921,16457,3320,321,423,722,1174,1713,3221,6560,13717,32335
1905,1693,15986,2984,275,350,570,946,1420,2719,5830,13498,29226
1906,1563,16499,3249,264,332,514,829,1260,2395,4925,10392,21680
1907,1800,16207,3103,287,370,627,1007,1527,2975,6635,15700,32789
1908,1509,15186,2759,264,294,450,755,1247,2380,5360,13056,26139
1909,1481,16198,2891,246,268,427,736,1130,2238,5093,11668,23601
1910,1559,16290,2856,254,292,469,788,1257,2502,5566,12928,25550
1911,1454,14093,2442,233,286,430,739,1206,2354,5517,13251,27922
1912,1384,14910,2382,202,261,416,694,1108,2199,4933,11724,23965
1913,1408,15025,2503,232,272,424,732,1129,2148,4837,11602,24150
1914,1324,14398,2148,219,255,387,675,1102,2115,4601,10964,22446
1915,1459,14894,2055,218,280,430,710,1211,2400,5679,13715,29304
1916,1633,14140,2217,230,350,514,877,1404,2773,6613,16315,36988
1917,1645,14745,2115,240,389,593,981,1488,2814,6146,15030,31874
1918,5885,22733,7180,1762,5805,9926,5548,3478,3819,6463,11790,22306
1919,2230,15942,2939,633,1414,2859,1810,1639,2332,4596,9139,18422
1920,2073,14950,2837,451,1013,1806,1640,1649,2558,5459,11943,23701
1921,987,9795,1468,220,263,327,516,782,1455,3354,8426,18419
1922,1323,12650,1900,240,370,512,777,1031,1934,4571,11250,25303
1923,1517,13566,2007,260,435,560,879,1269,2237,5498,14319,34740
1924,1152,11848,1518,200,322,410,679,1031,1704,3799,9530,23613
1925,1217,11751,1503,233,361,443,741,1043,1778,4049,10716,27585
1926,1417,14005,1981,230,356,604,839,1227,2045,4700,12969,32454
1927,1022,10160,1291,188,273,374,624,922,1530,3400,8736,21688
1928,1425,13215,1766,275,428,566,916,1284,2037,4693,13055,33639
1929,1465,13219,1791,258,410,583,926,1322,2177,4967,14071,34928
1930,1025,10901,1231,188,278,389,611,957,1646,3370,8343,18844
1931,1075,11054,1253,196,304,446,678,1010,1649,3404,8840,21747
1932,1073,10305,1158,204,305,425,652,955,1629,3484,10065,26162
1933,957,9900,1090,175,250,380,597,884,1493,3005,8362,21688
1934,969,10553,1154,178,246,363,576,923,1571,3025,8029,19002
1935,1042,10029,1116,199,286,436,666,1016,1669,3259,8535,20718
1936,1196,10904,1193,218,356,501,778,1189,1941,3722,9776,23302
1937,1149,10364,1124,179,294,458,721,1169,1898,3576,9603,24259
1938,804,9019,902,137,184,270,423,709,1233,2482,6775,15921
1939,757,7937,703,114,152,222,371,635,1137,2456,7170,19301
1940,703,8701,625,90,115,171,286,518,937,2264,6912,19299
1941,638,7720,571,80,101,151,266,471,856,1966,6009,18132
1942,557,6944,477,66,86,130,243,420,754,1671,4730,12958
1943,671,6761,547,81,103,151,285,514,920,1970,5711,17091
1944,616,6230,454,70,86,126,233,429,824,1823,5509,16884
1945,516,5901,384,69,88,114,200,350,644,1364,4179,12575
1946,445,5272,301,52,61,79,155,295,573,1273,4013,13119
1947,431,3823,250,45,49,70,136,275,559,1259,3945,13010
1948,387,4078,244,40,42,55,122,234,467,1096,3450,11112
1949,300,2884,198,32,32,43,92,189,372,878,2629,8789
1950,313,2681,189,32,32,42,90,193,382,971,2965,9544
1951,314,2520,190,32,34,40,87,189,383,938,2995,9351
1952,297,2669,199,32,30,42,86,173,337,820,2666,8252
1953,330,2575,188,31,32,42,88,186,382,966,3107,10007
1954,254,2272,161,24,24,33,66,142,276,708,2206,7132
1955,271,2216,149,25,27,31,68,142,295,764,2498,7911
1956,282,2253,153,23,24,30,70,140,304,806,2580,8536
1957,358,2399,183,38,55,56,102,206,443,1069,2986,9798
1958,331,2453,160,23,29,43,78,173,389,960,2928,9881
1959,312,2392,153,25,27,38,77,155,335,865,2816,9243
1960,373,2390,162,26,30,48,93,196,432,1121,3406,11266
from heart-disease
1900,1374,1478,150,233,288,434,808,1730,4141,9573,17519,22498
1901,1400,1221,137,203,274,448,820,1754,4378,9666,18686,22286
1902,1454,1228,138,215,279,462,855,1811,4494,10137,19373,24616
1903,1518,1037,105,191,272,452,882,1850,4726,10803,21412,27057
1904,1637,1096,127,236,289,456,911,1950,5103,11795,22944,31770
1905,1619,1191,109,234,284,461,926,1950,5011,11399,22801,31841
1906,1542,997,108,214,276,450,907,1897,4944,11463,22440,32684
1907,1666,903,122,216,291,457,945,2093,5303,12361,25114,36823
1908,1520,922,118,218,258,405,881,1854,4758,11500,23284,34878
1909,1530,889,107,209,250,397,832,1818,4704,11551,23539,35170
1910,1589,992,128,223,267,408,857,1895,4807,11917,24816,38116
1911,1564,825,107,210,256,407,854,1885,4770,12026,24458,37779
1912,1587,744,99,187,256,401,882,1907,4783,12072,25244,37383
1913,1546,737,111,200,243,406,867,1843,4589,11607,24543,37929
1914,1582,602,98,215,250,396,889,1829,4627,12158,25075,39779
1915,1639,605,96,198,255,395,848,1847,4792,12587,26177,43442
1916,1672,556,102,190,253,426,883,1938,4920,12733,27344,44985
1917,1699,560,98,182,268,441,896,1954,4989,12795,27845,45421
1918,1716,553,103,193,350,558,963,1954,4896,12365,26110,42691
1919,1479,498,84,149,229,351,741,1650,4254,11139,25067,43235
1920,1596,520,97,174,245,375,731,1716,4520,12009,28574,52144
1921,1562,436,99,186,243,334,698,1741,4406,11667,27629,51728
1922,1650,456,95,160,234,338,747,1857,4695,12496,29255,57350
1923,1740,465,95,160,234,343,787,1983,4982,12730,30693,61036
1924,1757,431,88,168,246,352,815,2031,4869,12619,30790,60765
1925,1848,428,93,165,237,365,838,2091,5088,13198,32130,67457
1926,1986,398,87,148,237,365,865,2213,5399,14196,35081,72389
1927,1953,379,85,149,236,365,860,2181,5309,13902,33470,68250
1928,2077,349,81,136,222,385,917,2314,5606,14845,36120,72671
1929,2112,351,81,136,226,384,893,2325,5766,14956,35635,71059
1930,2142,331,69,121,213,382,894,2389,5986,14939,34767,66809
1931,2134,240,66,113,197,361,880,2368,5923,14585,34367,65546
1932,2241,175,59,102,184,349,872,2373,6093,15104,36512,71362
1933,2280,174,61,99,173,341,862,2447,6283,15230,36777,69269
1934,2403,165,54,93,171,344,906,2588,6480,15626,38254,72910
1935,2454,246,57,101,165,331,895,2548,6469,15706,38826,73992
1936,2666,259,50,102,166,334,945,2683,6848,16553,42552,81127
1937,2689,194,49,88,158,324,926,2720,6855,16432,41900,78940
1938,2697,203,44,88,155,306,918,2706,6711,16391,41051,76400
1939,2755,182,44,83,149,294,892,2682,6805,16382,41329,79457
1940,2925,175,36,80,140,297,917,2795,7135,17285,42337,83130
1941,4753,310,70,116,216,452,1429,4341,10917,27479,69493,143036
1942,4795,199,78,107,215,456,1433,4376,10937,27117,67371,140391
1943,5108,174,72,108,220,465,1444,4434,11292,28054,71549,152909
1944,5005,172,71,108,216,439,1386,4258,10851,26533,67435,141751
1945,5082,151,67,103,212,444,1375,4252,10801,25910,65491,141086
1946,4768,152,59,85,171,364,1254,4073,10431,24810,63222,142181
1947,4910,120,53,76,152,346,1238,4178,10675,25512,64757,147766
1948,4880,115,55,72,150,335,1238,4102,10449,25046,63489,146534
1949,5021,114,41,66,139,327,1225,4120,10698,25697,64374,145151
1950,5108,114,38,55,135,324,1224,4115,10683,26090,65229,146256
1951,5132,159,34,50,133,321,1217,4062,10545,25381,64698,143334
1952,5118,173,38,48,132,319,1200,4019,10460,24943,63484,139261
1953,5148,177,35,44,123,313,1171,3928,10293,24965,63305,140120
1954,4952,163,32,39,114,291,1073,3705,9700,23850,60362,134857
1955,5060,149,31,34,108,278,1057,3555,9583,24033,62192,142224
1956,5105,150,31,32,101,275,1030,3517,9647,24076,62002,144248
1957,5235,145,32,31,105,278,1035,3575,9831,24542,62198,148599
1958,5235,137,29,26,90,275,1024,3542,9630,24205,62437,149944
1959,5159,131,29,26,86,268,997,3461,9390,23587,60861,147369
1960,5218,122,25,27,84,258,1008,3449,9438,23737,61238,149451
from all causes
1900,172,1624,198,39,59,82,102,150,272,564,1233,2609
1901,164,1414,169,35,55,80,103,150,278,562,1246,2608
1902,155,1389,166,33,51,75,96,140,259,529,1141,2356
1903,156,1326,154,34,52,75,98,143,272,550,1208,2537
1904,164,1392,159,37,55,78,102,151,285,582,1261,2700
1905,159,1412,150,34,52,74,98,147,277,562,1224,2615
1906,157,1448,158,33,53,75,98,145,271,550,1204,2551
1907,159,1380,147,32,53,75,102,151,286,588,1287,2691
1908,147,1332,140,30,48,67,90,138,262,588,1195,2486
1909,142,1267,135,28,44,63,87,133,256,589,1184,2449
1910,147,1318,140,29,45,65,90,137,262,556,1222,2503
1911,139,1140,118,27,45,64,89,135,258,550,1201,2464
1912,136,1111,109,25,43,61,86,134,258,545,1202,2422
1913,138,1148,119,27,44,62,87,135,255,541,1179,2359
1914,133,1072,102,25,42,60,85,131,251,541,1156,2315
1915,132,1024,92,23,41,58,83,131,255,556,1201,2403
1916,138,1057,111,25,44,62,88,136,265,572,1239,2504
1917,140,1046,107,26,47,65,90,139,268,573,1239,2459
1918,181,1117,157,41,107,164,134,152,265,550,1130,2221
1919,129,910,93,27,53,75,86,123,231,500,1078,2222
1920,130,923,99,26,49,68,81,122,236,525,1189,2483
1921,115,806,80,25,39,49,68,112,221,490,1112,2391
1922,117,776,74,21,38,50,71,118,232,522,1175,2581
1923,121,811,81,21,39,50,73,122,239,533,1235,2797
1924,116,768,68,20,38,48,71,121,230,510,1172,2618
1925,117,754,64,20,38,48,72,122,233,517,1193,2723
1926,121,779,72,19,37,49,74,127,241,538,1254,2797
1927,113,688,59,19,35,47,71,120,229,512,1159,2501
1928,120,731,65,19,37,50,75,128,242,543,1252,2683
1929,119,716,63,19,36,50,73,127,245,540,1222,2543
1930,113,690,56,17,33,47,68,122,240,514,1127,2280
1931,111,644,53,17,32,45,67,120,236,499,1105,2228
1932,109,613,46,15,29,42,63,116,234,500,1143,2333
1933,107,613,47,15,27,41,62,114,232,490,1113,2223
1934,111,668,51,15,28,41,62,118,235,494,1141,2248
1935,109,609,44,15,27,40,62,116,232,487,1131,2246
1936,116,629,44,15,28,41,65,121,241,508,1217,2427
1937,113,613,42,14,26,39,62,118,235,490,1170,2272
1938,106,580,38,12,23,34,56,109,221,471,1109,2126
1939,106,537,32,11,21,32,53,107,221,472,1125,2233
1940,108,549,29,10,20,31,52,106,223,480,1126,2289
1941,105,526,28,10,20,29,50,103,213,462,1058,2187
1942,103,488,24,9,19,28,48,101,210,449,1016,2111
1943,109,440,27,10,21,27,48,102,215,462,1075,2303
1944,106,442,23,09,20,27,46,97,208,439,1017,2153
1945,106,425,20,9,19,27,46,96,205,426,984,2096
1946,100,463,18,8,17,23,42,92,198,412,951,2106
1947,101,345,16,7,15,21,41,92,201,421,970,2169
1948,99,357,16,7,14,20,39,90,197,414,951,2132
1949,97,352,15,7,13,18,37,87,193,408,930,2032
1950,96,330,14,6,13,18,36,85,190,410,933,2020
1951,97,323,14,6,13,18,35,85,188,401,924,1976
1952,96,321,14,6,13,17,34,83,186,394,905,1906
1953,96,308,13,5,12,16,33,82,184,394,906,1919
1954,92,293,12,5,11,15,31,78,174,379,860,1816
1955,93,285,11,5,12,15,31,76,173,381,879,1898
1956,94,282,11,5,12,15,30,75,174,381,879,1923
1957,96,280,11,5,12,15,31,76,178,390,881,1979
1958,95,281,11,5,11,15,30,75,174,384,879,1980
1959,94,275,11,5,11,15,29,74,171,376,858,1942
1960,95,270,11,5,11,15,30,76,174,382,875,1986



from CDC , 1900-40.pdf  , page 258=253, table 14

  CDC , 1940-60.pdf page 447

table 63,p374:35 causes,age,color,sex
all causes, p380=374,1076.4-->954.7
tuberculosis, p385, 45.0-->6.1
syphilis,394,14.4-->1.6
cancer,399,120.3-->149.2
diabetes,442=336,26.7-->16.7
cvr,447,485.7-->521.8
vasc.lesions,451,90.9-->108.0
arterioscl,-->275.0
hypertensive-->44.0
nephritis,p480,79.0-->6.7
p+i,p484,70.3-->37.3
infancy,p520,-->37.4

total : p43,p318

from 1900-40.pdf , page 258=253, table 14
table 7,page , table 6, page 169
typed into computer by hand

Attached Files

**gsgs** · May 5, 2013, 07:14 AM

Re: mortality statistics

the magnitude of this decrease is really surprising to me

Reductions in cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory mortality following the national irish smoking ban: interrupted time-series analysis - PubMed

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23637964

The national Irish smoking ban was associated with immediate reductions in early mortality. Importantly, post-ban risk differences did not change with a longer follow-up period. This study corroborates previous evidence for cardiovascular causes, and is the first to demonstrate reductions in cerebro …

Following smoking ban implementation in Ireland March,2004, an immediate
13% decrease in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99),
26% reduction in ischemic heart disease (IHD) (RR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88),
32% reduction in stroke (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.54-0.85),
38% reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.46-0.83)
mortality was observed.

------------------------------------------------------------

I don't quite see this. There was a steady decline in 2000-2005, since 2006 it goes up again.
But nothing like 13% in any year

HMD gives Irish deaths as

2000 31391
2001 30212
2002 29683
2003 29074
2004 28665
2005 27441
2006 28488
2007 28117
2008 28192
2009 28898

2008:
28380
27961
28995

also: http://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/birt...sandmarriages/

Attached Files

**gsgs** · July 6, 2013, 03:28 AM

Re: mortality statistics

Euro-deaths 1960-2011
16 countries with available monthly data since 1960
(plus 2 small omitted countries)

missing years are estimated from neighbors-data (i.e. France~NL+B+CH)

normed to season 2010-2011 = 1

you can see the larger amount of seasonality in Southern Countries

you can also see how the upward-trend since 1960 was stopped ~1974
in middle-Europe, although it is less pronounced than in USA 1974-1976
(look at the yearly minima in chart #17)

---------------------------------------
mortalitylinks
UNO: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph...s/dyb/dyb2.htm
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demograph.../HistTab10.csv
since 1948, all causes , x countries
WHO: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/morttables/en/index.html
http://apps.who.int/healthinfo/stati...ality/whodpms/
(tables by cause,7 agegroups,selected countries, since 1979)
WHO Mortality Database Updated as of March 2012 ----edit-----Updated as of July 2014--------
WHO-Europe causes of death with subnational regions, since 1980 ---updated April 2014 ---:

404 - File or directory not found.

http://data.euro.who.int/hfamdb/

HMD: http://www.mortality.org/
CDC: http://www.nber.org/data/multicause.html

Seite nicht gefunden - Universität Ulm

http://www.uni-ulm.de/mawi/mawi-mort

Japan: http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/02.htm
eurostat: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/...cd_anr&lang=en
yearly,1994-2010,37 countries,87 causes,3 sexes,22 agegroups = 3611718 numbers
download as zips, only 10 causes at once, else there are problems
18MB zipped in total, takes a while to create the data ~1 hour to download the whole database (1994-2010)
eurostat: http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/...mmonth&lang=en
deaths by month
62 countries,1960-2013,14 months=46872 numbers ---udate 2014/02/14---
Canada: http://hdl.handle.net/1974/8177
Massachusetts: https://archive.org/details/annualreportvita1933mass
France:http://www.ined.fr/1999
Belgium:
USA: http://www.nber.org/data/multicause.html

IPUMS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integra...crodata_Series

freeBMD: http://www.freebmd.org.uk/cgi/EntryCounts.pl
England+Wales, 1838-1966, quarterly, for genealogy,not statistics, restricted search
they have name,age,district - not cause of death , no stat-counts
--------------------------------------------------------------------
France 1906, monthly , >80 regions
http://translate.google.de/translate...76%26bih%3D539
-------------------------------------------------------------------
USA, public health reports weekly since 1896
weekly deaths in ~100 cities worldwide , total+11 infectious diseases (until 1912)
weekly temperature and rainfall in ~100 US-cities
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/?ter...eports%22+1900
starts 1896 all the weeks at pubmed
------------------------------------------------------------------
Donaldson
and Keatinge [77], for example, obtained the daily population in their study
of winter excess mortality in southeast England ?by linear interextrapolation
from the 1981 and 1991 censuses?
----------------------------------
Aus Oberösterreich wurden tägliche Sterbefälle für die Jahre 1990 bis 2004 zur Ver-
fügung gestellt, wobei neben Alter, Geschlecht und Haupttodesursache auch der
Wohnbezirk bekannt ist.
--------------------------------------
Canada 1921-1970: http://qspace.library.queensu.ca/jspui/handle/1974/8177
cansim: since 1991 : http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a33...ables&lang=eng
since 1946 only per quartal and province
---------------------------------------------
wonder: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html
--------------------------------------------------------
Anuario estadístico de México Mexico, statistical yearbook
---------------------------------------------------
PAHO: http://ais.paho.org/dwld/mort/VENEZUELA2004.csv
http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?opt...56&Itemid=2392
=----------------------------------------------------
Australia , AIHW , ABS , 150 EXCEL , GRIM Books >1906
-----------------------------------------------------------
England 1848-1900
http://www.geog.cam.ac.uk/research/p...undeathcauses/
by cause, sex and age for England & Wales 1848-1900 SN5705
-------------------------------------------------------------
France: 1946- http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home...3_1946_num_1_1
=================================================

404 Block

http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/about/factbook-11/chapter4.htm

Sex matters: secular and geographical trends in sex differences in coronary heart disease mortality

http://www.bmj.com/content/323/7312/541

Objective: To examine secular trends and geographical variations in sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease and investigate how these relate to distributions in risk factors. Design: National and international data were used to examine secular trends and geographical variations in sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease and risk factors. Setting: England and Wales, 1921-98; Australia, France, Japan, Sweden, and the United States, 1947-97; 50 countries, 1992-6. Data sources: Office for National Statistics, World Health Organization, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Results: The 20th century epidemic of coronary heart disease affected only men in most industrialised countries and had a very rapid onset in England and Wales, which has been examined in detail. If this male only epidemic had not occurred there would have been 1.2 million fewer deaths from coronary heart disease in men in England and Wales over the past 50 years. Secular trends in mean per capita fat consumption show a similar pattern to secular trends in coronary heart disease mortality in men. Fat consumption is positively correlated with coronary heart disease mortality in men ( r s =0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.86) and inversely associated with coronary heart disease mortality in women (—0.30; —0.49 to —0.08) over this time. Although sex ratios for mortality from coronary heart disease show a clear period effect, those for lung cancer show a cohort effect. Sex ratios for stroke mortality were constant and close to unity for the entire period. Geographical variations in the sex ratio for coronary heart disease were associated with mean per capita fat consumption (0.64; 0.44 to 0.78) but were not associated with the sex ratio for smoking. Conclusion: Sex differences are largely the result of environmental factors and hence not inevitable. Understanding the factors that determine sex differences has important implications for public health, particularly for countries and parts of countries where the death rates for coronary heart disease are currently increasing. #### What is already known on this topic What is already known on this topic Mortality for coronary heart disease is greater in men than women in most industrialised countries The most widely accepted explanation for this difference is that women are protected by oestrogen #### What this study adds What this study adds The sex difference in mortality from coronary heart disease varies over time and between countries in a way that cannot be explained by endogenous oestrogen These trends indicate that sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease are driven primarily by environmental factors Sex differences in coronary heart disease are not inevitable Understanding more about the factors that cause the sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease has important public health implications

Achievements in Public Health, 1900-1999: Tobacco Use -- United States, 1900-1999

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm4843a2.htm

================================================== =============
University of Minnesota links:
https://www.lib.umn.edu/libdata/page...l?page_id=2031
================================================== ========
OECD: http://www.oecd.org/els/health-syste...lance-2013.pdf
http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?Dat...e=HEALTH_STAT#
34 OECD-countries, yearly since 1960, ~50 causes, years of life lost, health-status
================================================== ========
data.worldbank.org/
==================================

Attached Files

**gsgs** · July 6, 2013, 01:05 PM

Re: mortality statistics

smoking
======

Denmark
----------

Life expectancy and mortality in Denmark compared to Sweden. What is the effect
of smoking and alcohol?]. [Article in Danish]
Juel K.Source Syddansk Universitet, Statens Institut for Folkesundhed.
kj@si-folkesundhed.dk
Abstract
INTRODUCTION:
For many years life expectancy in Denmark has improved less than in other comparable
western countries, e.g. Sweden. An unhealthy life style, in particular the consumption
of alcohol and tobacco, has often been mentioned as a possible explanation.
MATERIALS AND METHODS:
Life expectancy and mortality in Denmark and Sweden has been compared by means
of nationwide cause of death registries. Alcohol- and tobacco-related deaths are defined
from death certificate diagnoses. The comparisons between the two countries are made
by age standardised mortality rates and life expectancies for the period 1997-2001.
RESULTS:
50 years ago Denmark had one of the highest life expectancies in the world, but is now at
the bottom of the list when compared to similar countries. Life expectancy in Sweden is
now almost three years longer than in Denmark. Before the age of 75 there were a total
of 3700 premature deaths among Danish men and 3400 among Danish women. Relative
excess mortality was highest among Danish men aged 35-64 with a relative excess mortality
at 40-50%. Among women excess mortality was 50-60% in the age group 35-74 years.
Overall, alcohol and smoking account for almost the entire difference between Danish and
Swedish men and for 75% of the difference between Danish and Swedish women.
CONCLUSION:
A very substantial part of the Danish excess mortality and low life expectancy compared
to Sweden can be attributed to high mortality related to alcohol and tobacco consumption.
A reduction of this difference in life expectancy does not seem realistic without a reduction
in the consumption of tobacco and alcohol.
PMID: 18761821 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSION: The results indicate a high smoking prevalence to be the main explanation
behind the relatively low life expectancy of Danish women born 1915-45.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
CONCLUSIONS: The currently low life expectancy of Danish women compared with that of
women in Norway and Sweden is partly a transitional phenomenon caused by excessive
death rates for women born between the two World Wars. Data on smoking prevalence
by birth cohort and age indicate that a high percentage of Danish women in these cohorts
were smokers throughout their adult life.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The excess mortality of women in Denmark is linked to lifestyle factors:
tobacco smoking, alcohol and drug consumption
------------------------------------------------------------------------
RESULTS: In the period, 1993-1997, 30% of all deaths in men and 20% in women were
related to tobacco, alcohol, or drugs. The percentages of all deaths for tobacco, alcohol,
and drugs were respectively 22.8%, 6.3%, and 1.2% for men and 16.5%, 2.5%, and 0.7%
for women. Every year 12,000 Danes die 11-13 years prematurely, because of tobacco,
more than 2500 die more than 20 years prematurely, because of alcohol, and about 600
die almost 30 years prematurely, because of drugs. The standardised lifetime risk of death
from one of these three causes was about 30% for men, highest in the middle five-year period.
For women--because of substantially increased mortality attributable to smoking--there
was a large increase from 8% to 20%. In the municipality of Copenhagen, the lifetime risk
for men was about 50%, for women it increased from 15% in the middle of the 1970s to
more than 30% in the middle of the 1990s. For both men and women, mortality in the age
group 35-74 declined sharply, when mortality related to the three causes was excluded.
However, the heavy increase in smoking-related deaths in women means that the total
mortality over the entire period has been almost constant.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=4742&langId=en

Denmark and Germany,

per capita cigarette consumption
1970: 1937 , 2333
1980: 1972 , 2423
1990: 1860 , 2234
2000: 1856 , 1843

annual smoking deaths 35-69 years
1955:1400 , 35900
1965:3200 , 62500
1975:4000 , 56800
1985:5100 , 50100
1995:4900 , 58100

Sale of tobacco in Denmark” from Statistics
Denmark, but these figures did not include the sale of all tobacco, which explains why
those figures were smaller.
The new figures are based on figures from The Danish Tax-authorities on the amount
of paid taxes from the sale of tobacco.
Further information: http://www.statistikbanken.dk and http://www.sst.dk/English.aspx.
--------------------------------------------------------
Source: Federal Statistical Office, Statistics on consumption of tobacco products;
Statistisches Bundesamt, Fachserie 14, Reihe 9.1.1, table 1.3.
Methodology: Consumption of tobacco in grams per capita recalculated on the basis
of 1 gram per cigarette and 2 grams per cigar/cigarillo. Consumption of pipe and fine
cut tobacco is also included.
Break in time series: Until 1990, Federal Republic of Germany; from 1991, Germany
after reunification. Further information: http://www.destatis.de.
------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Department of Agriculture/Economic Research Service. Tobacco Situation
and Outlook Report, various issues. U.S. Department of Agriculture: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/tobacco/tables.htm.
Coverage: US per capita estimates are based on population 18 years of age and over.

Cigarette Smoking Among Adults --- United States, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5644a2.htm#fig

--------------------------------------------------------------

Percentage of 15-year-olds who smoke at least once a week,
1993f,girls 1997f ,girls 2001f ,girls 1993f ,boys 1997f ,boys 2001f,boys
Denmark 24 28 21 14 20 17
Germany 29 33 34 21 28 32

Raucherquote 2009

Griechenland 42%
Bulgarien 39%
Ungarn 38%
Lettland 36%
Spanien 35%
Österreich 34%
Frankreich 33%
Polen 33%
Irland 31%
Belgien 30%
Dänemark 29%
EU27 29%
Großbritannien 28%
Italien 26%
Luxemburg 25%
Deutschland 25%
Niederlande 24%
Portugal 23%
Finnland 21%
Schweden 16%

http://archive.tobacco.org/resources/history/tobacco_historynotes.html

Public Health Cigarette Smoking Act of 1969
signed into law by Richard Nixon on April 1, 1970
Congress enacts the Little Cigar Act of 1973
--------------------------------------------------------------------
(sorry, the attached chart comparing German and Danish life expectancy since 1960
was wrong. Accidentally German females were compared with Danish males.
Deleted now, (2 views))
----------------------------------------------
Belgium
-------
An immediate decrease in AMI mortality rates was observed in January 2006 (smoking ban at work).
The effect was highest for women younger than 60 years of age (-33.8%; 95% CI -49.6 to -13.0),
compared with an effect of -13.1% (95% CI -24.3 to -0.3) for male counterparts. Estimates for the
elderly (≥60 years) were -9.0% (95% CI -14.1 to -3.7) for men and 7.9% (95% CI -13.5 to -2.0) for
women. An additional effect of the smoking ban in restaurants was observed for elderly men, with an
annual slope change of -3.8% (95% CI -6.5 to -1.0) after 1 January 2007.

Attached Files

**gsgs** · July 12, 2013, 03:54 PM

Re: mortality statistics

see, how ischemic heart disease (the most common cause of death)
became much less seasonal since ~2005 and never was much
seasonal (winter_deaths/summer_deaths) in the 20-50y group !

same also in deaths from
other bacterial
HIV
malnutrition
CNS-inflammation
other heart
cerebrovascular
arteries,arterioles,capillaries
other digestive
inflammatory polyarthropathies
arthrosis
bone structure
other urinary

but the reverse (increase of seasonality) in
intestinal infectious
obesity
organic mental
glomerular disease (most increasing disease since 2006)

--------------------------------------------
hattip mixin:

In 2004 the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) revised its guidelines
to recommend statin drugs as a primary prevention and the US market nearly tripled.
In that same year the cholesterol lowering drug known as Lipitor (manufactured by Pfizer)
became the best selling drug in American history. Pfizer reported 2004 Lipitor sales
of 12.5 billion dollars.

-------------------------------------
2013.07.13 , file diseas7.txt was replaced by file disea78.txt
and will be deleted soon
2013.07.13 , picture icd10-m.gif was added, same as icd10-8.gif
but only for the agegroup of 20-49 year olds

=============================================
we should make lists with flu-scores and winter-scores of the diseases,
showing the doctors how sensitive death from that disease is to winter or H3N2-waves
==============================================

Attached Files

**gsgs** · July 29, 2013, 03:14 AM

Re: mortality statistics

examining the age-structure of deaths in 1918 ...

here is a paper suggesting Mexico was different
Mortality Patterns Associated with the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Mexico:
Evidence
for a Spring Herald Wave and Lack of Preexisting Immunity in Older
Populations

http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/202/4/567.full

from Indian Censuses I get India populations by 5y-age groups in thousands:

Code:

1901,38004,40726,34447,24960,24592,26008,24921,17117,19070,10412,13041,5074,8070e,2280e,4611e
1911,41311,43245,33863,26181,27342,28219,25998,18431,19767,11241,13676,5322,8761,2475,5005
1921,39656,46747,36742,26145,26066,27600,26138,18969,19582,11644,13741,5574,8863,2519,5343

for an estimated deaths in thousands in 1918 of

12-17:1317
17-22:4334
22-27:3018
27-32:984
32-37:877
37-42:907
42-47:492
47-52:601
52-57:8
57-62:648
62-67:168
>67:90

keywords:
33,863,282
26,181,473
census of India 1901 1911 1921

**gsgs** · September 9, 2013, 04:23 AM

Re: mortality statistics

deaths in USA from the 2009 pandemic

Code:


ICD10-letter
ratio*1000
deaths Oct+Nov 2009
average deaths Oct+Nov 2006-2010
--------------------------------------------------------------
O 1359     174     128  +  46   maternal
J 1118   40521   36229  +4292   respiratory
F 1074   18196   16935  +1261   mental
A 1064    7920    7441  + 479   infection
        
I  979  128335  130992  -2657   cardiovascular
C 1010   96022   94984  +1038   cancer

V  859    6407    7454  -1047   motor accident
B  956    3362    3516  - 154
P  940    2125    2258  - 133
Q  928    1582    1704  - 122

G 1022   22823   22310  + 513
E 1015   16481   16234  + 247
K 1011   14995   14830  + 165
X 1007   15001   14889  + 112
N 1013   10660   10522  + 138

R 1041    6286    6037  + 249
W 1011    5948    5883  +  65
D 1000    4011    4011  +   0
H  811      14      17  -   3
L 1010     652     645  +   7
M 1012    2260    2233  +  27
Y  976    2045    2093  -  48

----------------------------------

4475 additional deaths in USA in Oct+Nov 2009

Code:

US deaths in Oct+Nov , 2009 compared with other years

ratio 2009/average
sex
age-group
ICD10
deaths in 2009
----------------------------------------
 1462  1  6 J1 418 
 1267  0  6 J1 498 
 1267  0  5 J4 805 
 1233  1  5 J4 756 
 1198  1  8 J9 366 
 1154  1  6 J4 1847 
 1141  0  7 J1 891 
 1134  1  7 J1 728     respiratory
 1124  0  6 J4 1935 
 1121  0  8 J8 572 
 1096  0  9 J4 883 
 1084  0  6 J8 300 
 1059  1  7 J4 3242 
 1058  1  9 J4 1415 
 1053  1  8 J4 4062 
 1048  0  8 J4 3547 

 1203  0  9 F0 1475 
 1111  1  8 F0 5192 
 1081  1  9 F0 4728 
 1082  0  8 F0 2652     dementia
 1068  0  7 F0 892 
 1064  1  7 F0 1107 

 1223  0  5 C4 367 
 1122  1  8 C7 494 
 1116  0  8 C4 528 
 1100  0  6 C7 643 
 1084  0  5 C8 572 
 1082  1  6 C6 285 
 1080  1  6 C1 974 
 1069  0  5 C2 1294     cancer
 1067  0  6 C2 1659 
 1066  1  6 C8 718 
 1065  1  6 C2 1033 
 1061  0  6 C8 961 
 1057  0  5 C9 372 
 1056  1  8 C9 886 
 1050  1  9 C3 493 
 1048  0  6 C9 740 
 1045  1  6 C7 422 
 1044  1  9 C2 407 
 1044  1  3 C5 280 
 1044  0  6 C1 1870 
 1042  0  9 C1 321 
 1039  0  4 C2 332 
 1038  1  5 C2 619 
 1037  1  7 C2 1388 
 1035  0  8 C2 1158 
 1033  1  9 C5 739 

 1162  1  6 I1 561 
 1157  0  6 I1 888    hypertensive
 1102  0  4 I1 414 
 1098  1  5 I1 419 
 1074  1  7 I1 889 
 1052  0  9 I1 512 
 1048  0  5 I1 800 
 1035  0  7 I1 809 
 1142  0  6 I4 974 
 1085  0  5 I4 712 
 1068  1  7 I4 984 
 1045  1  6 I4 508 
 1041  1  9 I4 1382 
 1075  1  7 I3 346 
 1045  0  7 I3 312 
 1073  0  6 I5 575 
 1073  0  5 I5 358 
 1055  0  9 I6 1117 
 1042  0  9 I5 944 
 1041  1  4 I6 310 
 1034  0  6 I6 1267 

 1258  1  8 A0 412   intestine
 1142  1  5 A4 305 
 1117  0  6 A4 521 
 1107  0  5 A4 362   bacterial
 1033  0  7 A4 699
 
 1214  0  4 E1 426 
 1139  1  8 E7 307 
 1101  0  6 E1 1406  diabetes
 1061  0  9 E1 339 
 1032  1  5 E1 577 

 1074  1  6 K7 537 
 1077  1  5 K7 662 
 1144  0  6 K7 1130   liver
 1064  0  5 K7 1575 
 1057  0  4 K7 778 

 1180  0  5 N1 362 
 1104  1  6 N1 497 
 1090  0  6 N1 556   kidney
 1063  0  9 N1 459 
 1057  0  7 N1 935 

 1213  1  5 X4 510 
 1185  0  5 X4 764   poisening
 1070  1  4 X4 599 
 1062  0  3 X4 747 
 1122  0  6 X7 444   suicide
 1073  0  5 X7 738 
 1059  0  7 X7 316 

 1178  1  8 R6 408 
 1100  1  9 R6 419 
 1069  1  9 R5 472 
 1067  1  8 R5 358    general

 1140  1  9 W1 530 
 1060  0  7 W1 401 
 1057  0  8 W1 676    fall
 1087  0  9 G3 1067 
 1060  0  8 G3 2363   Alzheimer
 1050  0  8 D4 388 
 1076  0  0 P2 316 
 1036  0  8 K5 431 
 1030  0  8 G2 1101 


 973  0  8 I2 10551 
 953  1  9 I2 7852 
 949  0  7 I2 7873 
 909  1  8 I2 10922 
 901  1  7 I2 5152    ischemic heart disease
 928  1  9 I6 3124 
 920  1  9 I5 2083 
 889  1  8 I7 839 
 883  1  7 I7 420 
 862  1  9 I7 555     arteries
 882  1  8 K5 736 
 858  0  4 B2 382 
 844  1  0 P0 494 
 840  0  4 I6 298 
 834  0  2 V8 429 
 831  0  2 V4 281 
 822  1  7 N3 211 
 820  1  8 N3 501    urinary
 807  0  8 N3 272 
 680  0  4 F1 187

Announcement

mortality statistics

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