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  • #16
    Re: mortality statistics

    Ok, I see it now, the green line helps a lot. Here's the graph for others to see.
    Maybe they have some ideas for the decline.

    [ATACH]6709[/ATTACH]





    { other picture:

    (added by gsgs) }
    Attached Files
    The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: mortality statistics

      age-structure of US-population per year:




      Baby-Boomer peak in 1960
      Penicillin(?) increase in 1947 suddenly reduced mortality of newborns
      another small Baby-Boom in 1923 and 1995









      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: mortality statistics

        another small Baby-Boom in 1923
        I wonder if it took 3-4 years before people started feeling 'normal' again after
        the pandemic hit? Or is there some other reason?
        The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: mortality statistics

          [do not resize picture automatically]

          [/resize]

          1975 declining deaths mystery

          or how should we call it, so others examing it like me will find it with google ?
          1974-1976 decreasing deaths (most in 1975) i.e. summer deaths in the white elderly in USA
          almost all states except WV and some others, but maybe not sigificant due to fewer records.

          Also in Canada, Mexico ? I don't know.

          Not seen in Europe,Japan


          --------------------------------------------------------
          Canada:

          seems that statcan http://www.statcan.gc.ca
          doesn't want people like me to examine questions like this.
          Seems also that they only have data since 1991.
          So, in general, I think that Canadians should resort to the
          better and free USA-data which should cover similar populations.

          you have to wonder anyway, how someone can claim
          copyright on statistical data - just numbers

          -----------------------------------------------------------------
          Copyright / permission to reproduce
          Materials on this website were produced and/or compiled by Statistics Canada for
          the purpose of providing Canadians with direct access to information about current
          trends and issues that affect their lives.
          The material on this site is covered by the provisions of the Copyright Act, by
          Canadian laws, policies, regulations, and international agreements. Such provisions
          serve to identify the information source and, in specific instances, to prohibit
          reproduction of materials without written permission.

          -------------------------------------------------------------------
          Mexico:
          1979-2007: http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx/mortalidad/index.html
          I don't now how to get the data. Registered users only ?

          1998-2008:













          Canada got it 2 years later ?






          data from the

          Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA),
          and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany).
          Available at www.mortality.org or www.humanmortality.de
          (data downloaded on 2010/11/20).
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: mortality statistics

            I wonder whether the MMWR 122-cities weekly P+I deaths
            are considered wrt. ICD-10

            -----------------------------------------
            For example, in 1998, there were 2,897 deaths classified as influenza and pneumonia
            using ICD-9 (ICD-9 codes: 480-487). However, changes in the classification and
            coding of underlying causes of deaths using ICD-10 reduce the assignment of
            influenza and pneumonia as an underlying cause of death. The comparability
            ratio for influenza and pneumonia is 0.6982. Applying the comparability ratio
            to the 1998 number yields 2,023 deaths that would have been classified as
            influenza and pneumonia deaths in 1998, had the ICD-10 classification system
            and coding rules been in place.

            since 1959 , ICD-7
            since 1969 , ICD-8
            since 1979 , ICD-9 was published by the WHO in 1977
            since 1999 , ICD-10 was completed in 1992
            ICD-11 is planned for 2015

            ICD7: 480-483:influenza , 490-493:pneumonia
            ICD8: 470-474:influenza , 480-486:pneumonia
            ICD9: 480-487:pneumonia and influenza
            ICD10:J09-J18:influenza and pneumonia
            Attached Files
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: mortality statistics


              There was strong evidence for a link between influenza and Myocardial Infection both in
              England/Wales ... and in Hong Kong (with usually 2 flu-peaks per season)
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: mortality statistics

                hah, WHO has a mortalty data base




                icd10 , 176MB decompressed

                1988,266
                1989,271
                1990,276
                1991,254
                1992,273
                1993,281
                1994,7658
                1995,20806
                1996,50405
                1997,80156
                1998,100941
                1999,134833
                2000,150545
                2001,163399
                2002,167831
                2003,166314
                2004,166086
                2005,161808
                2006,154723
                2007,144267
                2008,121185
                2009,69154


                from 116 countries, yearly

                flu, latest week : http://gamapserver.who.int/gareports...spx?ReportNo=2


                UK monthly since 2010:





                In two papers at this conference, we showed influenza to be the cause of - 70%
                of seasonal variation in human mortality. (2001)


                NL: This database covers approximately 98% of all hospitals in the ...
                Only monthly mortality data could be used
                AUS: Age-specific monthly mortality data was obtained for New Zealand and Australia. ...
                Of the houses in the current HEEP database
                HK:Here, we analyze monthly mortality data on 6 countries
                SriLnka: Monthly mortality data from all causes of death, neoplasm, circulatory and
                The MISMS database consists of monthly mortality data for several major disease
                classes from about 10 countries
                Rating of the best hostingCODEPerformanceSpecificationsRateVDS-USA-512CPU: E5-26XX, 1 Core x2.60 GHz Selecting RAM: 512 MBStorage Drive: 15 GB SSDBandwidth: 500 GB$2.5VDS-USA-1GCPU: E5-26XX, 1 Core x2.60 GHz Selecting RAM: […]

                monthly mortality data from the Straits Settlements reports .... Singapore Naval Base a
                Using monthly mortality data from the United Nations Databank
                Registered monthly mortality data from 1986–1995 were obtained from the Irish
                Virus surveillance data were obtained from the Annual Report of National .
                For the period 1986-1995, monthly death numbers (total deaths and deaths from
                cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, as defined by the International
                Classification of Diseases [ICD-9], among the general population and those 65 years
                of age and older) were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

                ------------------------------------------------

                --------------------------------------------------

                France : http://www.insee.fr/fr/bases-de-donn...bank=000436394

                27 European countries, yearly 1994-~2006, by 21 age-groups,4 sex-groups,66 ICD10-groups
                Attached Files
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: mortality statistics

                  Attached Files
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: mortality statistics

                    comparing Germany(WW1,WW2, refugees from East after WW2) with Switzerland (no wars)



                    comparing France(WW1,WW2(-Alsace,Lorraine)) with Switzerland (no wars)




                    -----------------------

                    During the 1940s there were 7·44% more deaths in the first half than in the second
                    half of the year, but during the 1960s the difference was only 4·85%.
                    in 2001 and found that humidity was one of the most important factors
                    influencing average monthly death rates from heart attacks for people over 70
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: mortality statistics

                      deathrates in Germany seasons with:
                      H1:8.9
                      H3:14.3
                      B:13.4

                      deaths in USA 122 cities in weeks with (1998-2007)
                      any:11272(540)
                      H1:11965(23106)
                      H3:12445(117647)
                      B:11754(34940)


                      deaths in USA 122 cities from P+I in weeks with
                      any:770(540)
                      H1:885(23106)
                      H3:1046(117647)
                      B:836(34940)

                      deaths in USA 122 cities >65y in weeks with
                      any:7631(540)
                      H1:8136(23106)
                      H3:8630(117647)
                      B:7998(34940)
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: mortality statistics

                        2008 is available now.
                        Maybe I'll update some of the charts above




                        preliminary deathrates for 2009:



                        seasonality of deaths from disease:

                        (mon_2.gif is updated for 2009)


                        ---------------------------------------

                        (pandemic) 2009 is available now




                        number of US death certificates by month

                        m.,--2008,--2009
                        -----------------
                        01,224358,223341
                        02,223866,200750
                        03,233149,216539
                        04,207206,203284
                        05,202821,200802
                        06,190999,191283
                        07,192404,194924
                        08,192327,192857
                        09,188135,190016
                        10,200910,207592
                        11,201922,201668
                        12,218714,218163
                        ------------------
                        2476811,2441219
                        Attached Files
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: mortality statistics

                          for Hong Kong see here:
                          Background Influenza has been associated with a heavy burden of mortality. In tropical or subtropical regions where influenza viruses circulate in the community most of the year, it is possible that there are seasonal variations in the effects of influenza on mortality, because of periodic changes in environment and host factors as well as the frequent emergence of new antigenically drifted virus strains. In this paper we explored this seasonal effect of influenza. Methods A time-varying coefficient Poisson regression model was fitted to the weekly numbers of mortality of Hong Kong from 1996 to 2002. Excess risks associated with influenza were calculated to assess the seasonal effects of influenza. Results We demonstrated that the effects of influenza were higher in winter and late spring/early summer than other seasons. The two-peak pattern of seasonal effects of influenza was found for cardio-respiratory disease and sub-categories pneumonia and influenza, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases and ischemic heart disease as well as for all-cause deaths. Conclusion The results provide insight into the possibility that seasonal factors may have impact on virulence of influenza besides their effects on virus transmission. The results warrant further studies into the mechanisms behind the seasonal effect of influenza.


                          interesting yearly double peaks !!

                          they had weekly death counts by cause from 1996 to 2002
                          but don't show the data
                          (Hong Kong census and statistics department)
                          while CDC made the data public
                          (with some restrictions in the last years : day (only month)
                          and location of death not given)





                          seasonal excess deaths in %

                          Code:
                          HK 1996-2002
                                Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov
                          -------------------------------------
                          all  +09.5   +03.4   -04.8   -08.1
                          IJ   +15.5   +06.5   -07.8   -14.2
                          J1   +08.3   +03.1   +01.4   -12.6
                          J4   +16.0   +16.2   -06.4   -25.3
                          I6   +16.6   +06.6   -12.0   -11.1
                          I2   +19.4   +05.0   -10.9   -13.1
                          
                          USA 1999-2008
                                Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov
                          -------------------------------------
                          all  +07.9   +01.9   -06.2   -03.6
                          IJ   +12.6   +03.6   -09.9   -06.3
                          J1   +33.4   +07.1   -24.5   -16.0
                          J4   +17.3   +08.5   -14.0   -11.8
                          I6   +10.1   +02.5   -08.8   -03.8
                          I2   +11.1   +02.6   -08.3   -05.4
                          
                          USA 1999-2002
                                Dec-Feb Mar-May Jun-Aug Sep-Nov
                          -------------------------------------
                          all  +08.6   +01.3   -06.5   -03.4
                          IJ   +13.5   +02.8   -10.1   -06.2
                          J1   +36.4   +04.8   -25.9   -15.4
                          J4   +19.5   +07.2   -14.4   -12.3
                          I6   +11.1   +02.0   -09.4   -03.7
                          I2   +11.6   +02.0   -08.5   -05.1

                          I : heart
                          J : respiratory
                          J1: pneumonia and influenza
                          J4: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
                          I6: cerebrovascular
                          I2: ischemic heart disease



                          better for USA seems to be a classification :
                          Dec-Mar,Apr-May and Oct-Nov,Jun-Sep

                          and A,I,J,

                          ---------------------------------------

                          108,500 Deaths in the US in 2008; 36,700 in England and Wales Last Winter; 5,600 in Canada (2006); 7,000 in Australia (1997-2006 Average); Thousands in Other Developed Countries Indur M. Goklany Si…




                          1. Lends support to Deschênes and Moretti (2009) paper which estimates that migration
                          from the Colder Northeast to Southern areas of the U.S.is responsible for 8%-15% of the
                          total gains in life expectancy in the U.S. population from 1970 to 2000.
                          Deschênes, O., Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme Weather Events, Mortality, and Migration.
                          The Review of Economics and Statistics

                          Falagas, M.E., Karageorgopoulos, D.E., Moraitis, L.I., Vouloumanou, E.K., Roussos, N.,
                          Peppas, G., Rafailidis, P.I. 2009. Seasonality of mortality: the September phenomenon in
                          Mediterranean countries. Canadian Medical Association Journal 181: 484-6.


                          -----------------------------------------
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: mortality statistics

                            1974 was the oil crisis, in Jan. oil prices in USA rose to ~$11 from ~$3
                            the last year. Nixon imposed a speedlimit (in effect in Mar.1974)
                            and later a ban on fuel on every 2nd day. ~20% of stations had no fuel at all.
                            Maybe there were also airtravel-limitations, I don't know.

                            The sharp temporary declinel of influenza deaths in mid January 1974
                            is not seen in other seasons.
                            In total 1973/74 caused the fewest winter-excess deaths
                            since 1959, when US-death certificates are available online.
                            There is some chance however, that 2011/2012 will still
                            have fewer deaths, despite being a H3N2 season !
                            At least this should become the season with the fewest
                            winter excess deaths ever in any H3N2 season.

                            What's the reason ?








                            see also this thread:


                            ---------------------------------------------
                            I found it for Canada :


                            they did have a decline in deaths from cardiovascular disease
                            since 1975, (also in accidents and diabetes)
                            but also a decline before 1970 with a "delay of decline"
                            in 1971-1974 . So, was it a factor that caused the decline since 1975
                            or a factor that caused the delay 1971-1974 ?
                            Cerebrovascular diseases (stroke) would be particularly interesting,
                            here we had a large peak and reversal in 1974 in USA.
                            And Canada is big ... regions close to the US-border in the
                            South only would be interesting.
                            --
                            apparantly Ontario has yearly data

                            "Statistics Canada" , "Office of the Registrar General of Ontario"
                            population 1971-1976 , Revised Annual Estimates of Population, by Sex and Age for Canada
                            and the Provinces (cat no 91-518), Ministry of Industry, Trade and Commerce, Ottawa, 1979
                            Vallin and Mesle , 1996 , "correspondence tables for ICD - transitions"
                            statistics Canada , catalogues 84-206 (1970-1986)
                            Olshansky and Ault, 1986


                            ----------------------------------------------------------
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: mortality statistics

                              paper from 2002:
                              Objective: Much debate remains regarding why certain countries experience dramatically higher winter mortality. Potential causative factors other than cold exposure have rarely been analysed. Comparatively less research exists on excess winter deaths in southern Europe. Multiple time series data on a variety of risk factors are analysed against seasonal-mortality patterns in 14 European countries to identify key relations Subjects and setting: Excess winter deaths (all causes), 1988–97, EU-14. Design: Coefficients of seasonal variation in mortality are calculated for EU-14 using monthly mortality data. Comparable, longitudinal datasets on risk factors pertaining to climate, macroeconomy, health care, lifestyle, socioeconomics, and housing were also obtained. Poisson regression identifies seasonality relations over time. Results: Portugal suffers from the highest rates of excess winter mortality (28%, CI=25% to 31%) followed jointly by Spain (21%, CI=19% to 23%), and Ireland (21%, CI=18% to 24%). Cross country variations in mean winter environmental temperature (regression coefficient (β)=0.27), mean winter relative humidity (β=0.54), parity adjusted per capita national income (β=1.08), per capita health expenditure (β=−1.19), rates of income poverty (β=−0.47), inequality (β=0.97), deprivation (β=0.11), and fuel poverty (β=0.44), and several indicators of residential thermal standards are found to be significantly related to variations in relative excess winter mortality at the 5% level. The strong, positive relation with environmental temperature and strong negative relation with thermal efficiency indicate that housing standards in southern and western Europe play strong parts in such seasonality. Conclusions: High seasonal mortality in southern and western Europe could be reduced through improved protection from the cold indoors, increased public spending on health care, and improved socioeconomic circumstances resulting in more equitable income distribution.

                              he examines the possible causes for excess winter mortality in 14 European countries.

                              in own chapters he examines:

                              Excess winter mortality and climate
                              Excess winter mortality and macroeconomic factors
                              Excess winter mortality and healthcare provision
                              Excess winter mortality and lifestyle risk factors
                              Excess winter mortality and socioeconomic factors
                              Excess winter mortality and household thermal efficiency

                              he didn't even mention influenza


                              28 Portugal
                              21 Ireland
                              21 Spain
                              18 Greece
                              18 UK
                              16 Italy
                              14 Austria
                              13 Belgium
                              13 France
                              12 Denmark
                              12 Luxembourg
                              11 Germany
                              11 Netherlands
                              10 Finland

                              the more South, the more excess winter mortality !
                              Inversely correlated with temperature
                              which he terms "the paradox of excess winter mortality”
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: mortality statistics





                                Attached Files
                                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                                Comment

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