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  • gsgs
    replied



    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...910v1.full.pdf

    Our results, which are robust to
    controlling for a host of co-factors, offer strong evidence that business shutdowns are very effective in
    reducing mortality. We calculate that the death toll from the first wave of COVID-19 in Italy would
    have been twice as high in their absence. Our findings also highlight that timeliness is key – by acting
    one week earlier, the government could have reduced the death toll by an additional 25%. Finally,
    our estimates suggest that shutdowns should be targeted: closing shops, bars and restaurants saves
    the most lives, while shutting down manufacturing and construction activities has only mild effects.


    Leave a comment:


  • Emily
    replied
    I agree the Wieland study is interesting. The last study says: "The official unemployment rate reached 14.7% in April, the highest rates observed since the Great Depression.21 Undoubtedly, policymakers are facing a tough decision: How to balance between economic and public health interests?"

    They need to realize that economic interests are part of public health. Same with social and psychological well-being.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...259v1.full.pdf

    only 3 of 9 measures showed impacts in USA :

    restaurant/bar limit to dining out only,
    non-essential business closure,
    large-gathering ban of more than 10 people,

    no impact :
    Stay-at-Home order,
    strengthened Stay-at-Home order,
    public school closure,
    all school closure,
    any gathering ban,
    mandatory self-quarantine of travelers.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    with the same USA measures 1 week earlier, 61.6% of infections and 55.0% of deaths
    could have been avoided
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...655v1.full.pdf

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    I ,mar12,mar25
    Bergamo ,mar09,mar22
    Ancona ,mar12,mar22
    F ,mar17,apr01
    Oise ,mar17,mar23
    E ,mar15,mar30
    GB ,[mar24],apr12
    D ,[mar22],apr04
    Cologne ,mar22,mar18
    Stuttgart,mar22,mar21
    Hamburg ,mar22,mar22
    Heinsberg,[feb28],mar15
    DK ,[mar17],apr06
    CH ,mar17,mar29
    AUT ,mar15,mar27
    B ,mar15,apr01-
    NOR ,[[mar12]],mar27
    USA ,[mar18],apr08
    NY ,mar22,mar31
    CA ,mar19,apr05
    FL ,apr01,apr05
    WA ,[mar15],mar28
    POL ,[mar15],apr06
    LUX ,mar15,mar27
    ISL ,mar15,mar24
    PRT ,[[mar15]],apr01
    NL ,mar15,mar31
    CZ ,mar14,mar31
    AUS ,mar24,mar27
    NZ ,mar22,mar30


    country, [major measures]-lockdown,peak


    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied

    strong reduction of long-range connections in favor of
    local paths.
    ----------------------------------
    Lockdown in France on mar17 caused a 65% reduction in countrywide number
    of displacements, and was particularly effective in reducing work-related
    short-range mobility, especially during rush hours, and recreational long-range trips.
    lockdown was very effective in reducing population mobility across scales
    ---------------------------------
    mobility fall of 76% after lockdown on mar15 in Santander, being less
    important in the case of the private car. Public transport users dropped
    by up to 93%,
    ----------------------------------
    Small-area lockdown produced a sizable reduction in human mobility in Chile,
    equivalent to an 11.4% reduction (95%CI -14.4% to -8.38%) in public transport
    and similar effects in other mobility indicators. Ten days after implementation,
    the small-area lockdown produced a reduction of the effective reproductive
    number (Re) of 0.86 (95%CI -1.70 to -0.02). School and university closures,
    implemented earlier, led to a 40% reduction in urban mobility
    ---------------------------------
    Lockdown has dramatically slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in UK,
    --------------------------------
    Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts
    would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, in London
    -----------------------------
    By relying on the daily data, the empirical evidence suggests that an increase
    n the number of visits to public spaces such as workspaces, parks, retail areas,
    and the use of public transportation is associated with an increase in the positive
    COVID-19 cases in a subsequent week.
    On the contrary, the increased intensity of staying in residential spaces is related
    to a decrease in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly. Results are robust
    after controlling for the lockdown period.Empirical evidence underlines the importance
    of the lockdown decision. Further, there is substantial regional variation among the
    twenty regions of Italy. Individual presence in public vs. residential spaces
    as a more significant effect on the number of COVID-19 cases in the Lombardy region.
    -------------------------------------------
    people in Italy, Spain, Denmark, the UK, and the Netherlands after lockdown
    spent more time at home, travelled much less, and were more active on their
    phones, interacting with others by using social apps. Nevertheless, the response
    across nations differed with Denmark showing attenuated changes in behaviour.
    --------------------------------------------
    We estimate local inter-city travel bans averted 22.4% (95% PI: 16.8–27.9%) more
    infections in the two weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, while local intra-city travel
    prevented 32.5% (95% PI: 18.9–46.1%) more infections in the third and fourth weeks.
    -----------------------------------------
    a reduction of 50% of
    the total trips between Italian provinces, following the lockdown
    -------------------------------------------------
    the lockdown of Wuhan reduced inflow into Wuhan by 76.64%, outflows from
    Wuhan by 56.35%, and within-Wuhan movements by 54.15%.
    ---------------------------------------------------

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    the "flattening" seems to correlate better with the google/apple mobility-trends than with the government measures.
    This was also shown in the Swiss study and some US-studies, which I liked.
    see :the links above.
    Many other studies just seem to _postulate_ that it were the government measures
    and then "calculate" the impact.

    see also the Oxford stringency index http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF

    Leave a comment:


  • Gert van der Hoek
    replied
    Interesting gsgs.

    Abstract from paper in your previous post:


    Flatten the Curve! Modeling SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
    Growth in Germany on the County Level


    Thomas Wieland (thomas.wieland@kit.edu)

    2020-05-13

    Abstract

    Since the emerging of the "novel coronavirus" SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding
    respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. In Europe,
    Germany is currently one of the most aected countries. In March 2020, a "lockdown"
    was established to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child
    day care facilities as well as forced social distancing and bans of any public gathering.

    The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had
    an impact on the declared aim of " attening the curve", referring to the epidemic
    curve of new infections.

    This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On
    the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based
    on reported cases of infections, aiming at determining the regional growth rate of
    infections and the point of in ection where infection rates begin to decrease and the
    curve attens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between
    the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German
    counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the social ban was established
    (March 23).
    In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school
    closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the
    virus emerged.

    Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew
    show no signicant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. On the
    contrary, growth rates and mortality are signicantly higher in Bavaria compared to
    whole Germany.


    The results raise the question whether social ban measures and
    curfews really contributed to the curve attening. Furthermore, mortality varies
    strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people
    belonging to the "risk group"
    , especially residents of retirement homes.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied

    ----------edit may19--------------------
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...667v1.full.pdf
    In 255 from 412 German counties , the epidemic curve has flattened
    ("inflection point") before the social ban on March 23.
    In 51 counties, the first inflection point was before school closures on March 15
    .

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    the 2nd postt should be post 1 and here an addendum to the 1sr-->2nd post about Germany
    -------------------------------------------------
    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb9789.full
    Germany :
    mar07,events : 43-->25 , mar16,schools : 25-->15 , mar22 semi-lockdown : 15-->09
    all 3 measures were necessary , 5 days later --> 4 times more cases
    hard to believe for me
    Kekule praises the study
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    was Germany's lockdown successful ?

    http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-h...bib/dp-671.pdf

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    R​0 in Switzerland dropped below 1 on March 19
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...639v1.full.pdf

    ================================================

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3571421

    While there is strong evidence for reduced social contact in the US,
    not all of these reductions can be attributed to NPIs: mobility data show that people in most
    states had already started to reduce the time they spend outside their homes before any NPI
    was implemented


    remain at home is driven strongly by statewide stay-at-home orders and moder-
    ately by non-essential business closures and policies related to restaurant and bar limits.
    Other policies such as school closure mandates, large gathering bans, and more limited
    stay-at-home orders do not show any significant impact on keeping people at home.

    the impact of the statewide stay-at-home order, start showing reduction 10 days after the
    implementation of the policy and reaches a statistically significant 37% decrease after 15 days
    In contrast, the lenient policies (other stay-at-home orders and large gathering bans) do
    not result in any statistically significant drop in the growth of the disease.
    At this stage of the outbreak in the US, other policy measures such as school closure
    mandates or large gathering bans seem to have had no significant causal impact on
    keeping people at home.

    400 job losses per life saved in CA : https://www.nber.org/papers/w26992.pdf


    1/4 of the 70% movement reduction in USA was due to stay-at-home-orders


    Stay-at-home orders modestly reduce movement—by 16% with
    sizeable partisan differences—and decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 7%.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    44482 estimated cases in KY with voluntary social distancing alone.
    instead of the actual 3857
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    in Germany R[t] also fell well before measures were implemented
    and it is not clear what brought cases down.
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt...ublicationFile
    -----------------------------------------------
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....01.20088260v1
    in Europe :
    closure of education facilities,
    prohibiting mass gatherings and
    closure of some non-essential businesses
    were associated with reduced incidence
    whereas
    stay at home orders,
    closure of all non-businesses and
    requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public
    was not associated with any independent additional impact.
    -----------------------------------------------------

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    started a topic effectivity of government measures

    effectivity of government measures

    -----------------------------------------------------
    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb9789.full
    Germany :
    mar07,events : 43-->25 , mar16,schools : 25-->15 , mar22 semi-lockdown : 15-->09
    all 3 measures were necessary , 5 days later --> 4 times more cases
    hard to believe for me
    Kekule praises the study in his German podcast #53
    Im "Science"-Magazin wird vorgerechnet, wie die Corona-Maßnahmen wirkten. Für Prof. Kekulé ein Beweis für den Erfolg des Lockdowns, auch wenn frühe "Corona-Ferien" vielleicht gereicht hätten. Und: Was bringen Urinproben?

    at 6:30-17:30
    Schools 5 days later ==> 4fold cases
    13:40 , German measures
    mar07 43%-->25%
    mar15, 25%-->15%
    mar22,15%-->09%
    all 3 measures necessary
    closing schools 5 days earlier = sufficient, no more measures required
    ### hard to believe for me, compare with the studies above
    17:28 delay did cost trillions ( ? in Germany alone)
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by gsgs; May 18, 2020, 11:33 PM.
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