Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

effectivity of government measures

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • effectivity of government measures

    -----------------------------------------------------
    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb9789.full
    Germany :
    mar07,events : 43-->25 , mar16,schools : 25-->15 , mar22 semi-lockdown : 15-->09
    all 3 measures were necessary , 5 days later --> 4 times more cases
    hard to believe for me
    Kekule praises the study in his German podcast #53
    https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/podca...reisen100.html
    at 6:30-17:30
    Schools 5 days later ==> 4fold cases
    13:40 , German measures
    mar07 43%-->25%
    mar15, 25%-->15%
    mar22,15%-->09%
    all 3 measures necessary
    closing schools 5 days earlier = sufficient, no more measures required
    ### hard to believe for me, compare with the studies above
    17:28 delay did cost trillions ( ? in Germany alone)
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Last edited by gsgs; May 18, 2020, 11:33 PM.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

  • #2
    R​0 in Switzerland dropped below 1 on March 19
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...639v1.full.pdf

    ================================================

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3571421

    While there is strong evidence for reduced social contact in the US,
    not all of these reductions can be attributed to NPIs: mobility data show that people in most
    states had already started to reduce the time they spend outside their homes before any NPI
    was implemented


    remain at home is driven strongly by statewide stay-at-home orders and moder-
    ately by non-essential business closures and policies related to restaurant and bar limits.
    Other policies such as school closure mandates, large gathering bans, and more limited
    stay-at-home orders do not show any significant impact on keeping people at home.

    the impact of the statewide stay-at-home order, start showing reduction 10 days after the
    implementation of the policy and reaches a statistically significant 37% decrease after 15 days
    In contrast, the lenient policies (other stay-at-home orders and large gathering bans) do
    not result in any statistically significant drop in the growth of the disease.
    At this stage of the outbreak in the US, other policy measures such as school closure
    mandates or large gathering bans seem to have had no significant causal impact on
    keeping people at home.

    400 job losses per life saved in CA : https://www.nber.org/papers/w26992.pdf


    1/4 of the 70% movement reduction in USA was due to stay-at-home-orders

    https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2005/2005.05469.pdf
    Stay-at-home orders modestly reduce movement—by 16% with
    sizeable partisan differences—and decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 7%.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    44482 estimated cases in KY with voluntary social distancing alone.
    instead of the actual 3857
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    in Germany R[t] also fell well before measures were implemented
    and it is not clear what brought cases down.
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt...ublicationFile
    -----------------------------------------------
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....01.20088260v1
    in Europe :
    closure of education facilities,
    prohibiting mass gatherings and
    closure of some non-essential businesses
    were associated with reduced incidence
    whereas
    stay at home orders,
    closure of all non-businesses and
    requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public
    was not associated with any independent additional impact.
    -----------------------------------------------------
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #3
      the 2nd postt should be post 1 and here an addendum to the 1sr-->2nd post about Germany
      -------------------------------------------------
      https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb9789.full
      Germany :
      mar07,events : 43-->25 , mar16,schools : 25-->15 , mar22 semi-lockdown : 15-->09
      all 3 measures were necessary , 5 days later --> 4 times more cases
      hard to believe for me
      Kekule praises the study
      ---------------------------------------------------------
      was Germany's lockdown successful ?
      https://twitter.com/SHomburg/status/1261594151130447877
      http://diskussionspapiere.wiwi.uni-h...bib/dp-671.pdf
      https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Homburg
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #4

        ----------edit may19--------------------
        https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...667v1.full.pdf
        In 255 from 412 German counties , the epidemic curve has flattened
        ("inflection point") before the social ban on March 23.
        In 51 counties, the first inflection point was before school closures on March 15
        .

        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #5
          Interesting gsgs.

          Abstract from paper in your previous post:


          Flatten the Curve! Modeling SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19
          Growth in Germany on the County Level


          Thomas Wieland (thomas.wieland@kit.edu)

          2020-05-13

          Abstract

          Since the emerging of the "novel coronavirus" SARS-CoV-2 and the corresponding
          respiratory disease COVID-19, the virus has spread all over the world. In Europe,
          Germany is currently one of the most aected countries. In March 2020, a "lockdown"
          was established to contain the virus spread, including the closure of schools and child
          day care facilities as well as forced social distancing and bans of any public gathering.

          The present study attempts to analyze whether these governmental interventions had
          an impact on the declared aim of " attening the curve", referring to the epidemic
          curve of new infections.

          This analysis is conducted from a regional perspective. On
          the level of the 412 German counties, logistic growth models were estimated based
          on reported cases of infections, aiming at determining the regional growth rate of
          infections and the point of in ection where infection rates begin to decrease and the
          curve attens. All German counties exceeded the peak of new infections between
          the beginning of March and the middle of April. In a large majority of German
          counties, the epidemic curve has flattened before the social ban was established
          (March 23).
          In a minority of counties, the peak was already exceeded before school
          closures. The growth rates of infections vary spatially depending on the time the
          virus emerged.

          Counties belonging to states which established an additional curfew
          show no signicant improvement with respect to growth rates and mortality. On the
          contrary, growth rates and mortality are signicantly higher in Bavaria compared to
          whole Germany.


          The results raise the question whether social ban measures and
          curfews really contributed to the curve attening. Furthermore, mortality varies
          strongly across German counties, which can be attributed to infections of people
          belonging to the "risk group"
          , especially residents of retirement homes.
          “Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights – that must be our call to arms"
          Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

          ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

          Comment


          • #6
            the "flattening" seems to correlate better with the google/apple mobility-trends than with the government measures.
            This was also shown in the Swiss study and some US-studies, which I liked.
            see :the links above.
            Many other studies just seem to _postulate_ that it were the government measures
            and then "calculate" the impact.

            see also the Oxford stringency index http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #7
              https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.06341.pdf
              strong reduction of long-range connections in favor of
              local paths.
              ----------------------------------
              Lockdown in France on mar17 caused a 65% reduction in countrywide number
              of displacements, and was particularly effective in reducing work-related
              short-range mobility, especially during rush hours, and recreational long-range trips.
              lockdown was very effective in reducing population mobility across scales
              ---------------------------------
              mobility fall of 76% after lockdown on mar15 in Santander, being less
              important in the case of the private car. Public transport users dropped
              by up to 93%,
              ----------------------------------
              Small-area lockdown produced a sizable reduction in human mobility in Chile,
              equivalent to an 11.4% reduction (95%CI -14.4% to -8.38%) in public transport
              and similar effects in other mobility indicators. Ten days after implementation,
              the small-area lockdown produced a reduction of the effective reproductive
              number (Re) of 0.86 (95%CI -1.70 to -0.02). School and university closures,
              implemented earlier, led to a 40% reduction in urban mobility
              ---------------------------------
              Lockdown has dramatically slowed down the spread of COVID-19 in UK,
              --------------------------------
              Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts
              would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, in London
              -----------------------------
              By relying on the daily data, the empirical evidence suggests that an increase
              n the number of visits to public spaces such as workspaces, parks, retail areas,
              and the use of public transportation is associated with an increase in the positive
              COVID-19 cases in a subsequent week.
              On the contrary, the increased intensity of staying in residential spaces is related
              to a decrease in the confirmed cases of COVID-19 significantly. Results are robust
              after controlling for the lockdown period.Empirical evidence underlines the importance
              of the lockdown decision. Further, there is substantial regional variation among the
              twenty regions of Italy. Individual presence in public vs. residential spaces
              as a more significant effect on the number of COVID-19 cases in the Lombardy region.
              -------------------------------------------
              people in Italy, Spain, Denmark, the UK, and the Netherlands after lockdown
              spent more time at home, travelled much less, and were more active on their
              phones, interacting with others by using social apps. Nevertheless, the response
              across nations differed with Denmark showing attenuated changes in behaviour.
              --------------------------------------------
              We estimate local inter-city travel bans averted 22.4% (95% PI: 16.8–27.9%) more
              infections in the two weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, while local intra-city travel
              prevented 32.5% (95% PI: 18.9–46.1%) more infections in the third and fourth weeks.
              -----------------------------------------
              a reduction of 50% of
              the total trips between Italian provinces, following the lockdown
              -------------------------------------------------
              the lockdown of Wuhan reduced inflow into Wuhan by 76.64%, outflows from
              Wuhan by 56.35%, and within-Wuhan movements by 54.15%.
              ---------------------------------------------------
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #8
                I ,mar12,mar25
                Bergamo ,mar09,mar22
                Ancona ,mar12,mar22
                F ,mar17,apr01
                Oise ,mar17,mar23
                E ,mar15,mar30
                GB ,[mar24],apr12
                D ,[mar22],apr04
                Cologne ,mar22,mar18
                Stuttgart,mar22,mar21
                Hamburg ,mar22,mar22
                Heinsberg,[feb28],mar15
                DK ,[mar17],apr06
                CH ,mar17,mar29
                AUT ,mar15,mar27
                B ,mar15,apr01-
                NOR ,[[mar12]],mar27
                USA ,[mar18],apr08
                NY ,mar22,mar31
                CA ,mar19,apr05
                FL ,apr01,apr05
                WA ,[mar15],mar28
                POL ,[mar15],apr06
                LUX ,mar15,mar27
                ISL ,mar15,mar24
                PRT ,[[mar15]],apr01
                NL ,mar15,mar31
                CZ ,mar14,mar31
                AUS ,mar24,mar27
                NZ ,mar22,mar30


                country, [major measures]-lockdown,peak


                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #9
                  with the same USA measures 1 week earlier, 61.6% of infections and 55.0% of deaths
                  could have been avoided
                  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...655v1.full.pdf
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...259v1.full.pdf

                    only 3 of 9 measures showed impacts in USA :

                    restaurant/bar limit to dining out only,
                    non-essential business closure,
                    large-gathering ban of more than 10 people,

                    no impact :
                    Stay-at-Home order,
                    strengthened Stay-at-Home order,
                    public school closure,
                    all school closure,
                    any gathering ban,
                    mandatory self-quarantine of travelers.
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I agree the Wieland study is interesting. The last study says: "The official unemployment rate reached 14.7% in April, the highest rates observed since the Great Depression.21 Undoubtedly, policymakers are facing a tough decision: How to balance between economic and public health interests?"

                      They need to realize that economic interests are part of public health. Same with social and psychological well-being.
                      Never forget Excalibur.
                      “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                      Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)

                      Comment


                      • #12



                        https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...910v1.full.pdf

                        Our results, which are robust to
                        controlling for a host of co-factors, offer strong evidence that business shutdowns are very effective in
                        reducing mortality. We calculate that the death toll from the first wave of COVID-19 in Italy would
                        have been twice as high in their absence. Our findings also highlight that timeliness is key – by acting
                        one week earlier, the government could have reduced the death toll by an additional 25%. Finally,
                        our estimates suggest that shutdowns should be targeted: closing shops, bars and restaurants saves
                        the most lives, while shutting down manufacturing and construction activities has only mild effects.


                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment

                        Working...
                        X