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  • gsgs
    update 2021-09-25 :

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  • gsgs
    commented on 's reply
    those numers yesterday were wrong, they had added 2 days
    (I was typing coronavirus france into

    there are some signs that France and Spain are peaking

  • gsgs
    commented on 's reply
    ahh, probably not. >20000 cases today in France, bad day also elsewhere
    could be partially delayed weekend-accumulations, but still
    GER,SPA,11016,177; FRA,20896,148; ITA,3497,43;UK,14251,71
    ISR,12229,62; ARG,
    Aragon,8.8; Madrid,18.7;Spain,11.9;
    Madrid quarantined (now as it goes down in Madrid : daily PR=
    21.6,19.3,20.9,24.4,24.9,22.9,21.9, 22.2,21.7,23.2,20.9,21.9,19.5,18.3,18.7)

  • gsgs
    looks like hospitalizations are declining in France ?!
    cases are also down
    just a few days, so it's still early and uncertain

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  • gsgs
    DEU,2153,15;ESP,10653,84;FRA,16096,613,53,BEL,1661 ,4;ITA,1786,23;GBR,6634,40;NLD,
    ISR,7425,53;HUN,750,7;CZE,2910,12;AUT,686,6;ROM,16 39,41;UKR,3372,52;POL,1136,25
    Cidrap :Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths

    IHME predicts 378321 US-COVID-deaths by Jan01, they assume seasonality
    in deaths from COVID

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  • curiosity
    The Tokyo study is interesting. The authors indicate the subjects are from different areas of Tokyo - yet they are all from the same company. Workplace may be a common location for all and thus not representative of an entire geographical area.

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  • gsgs
    DEU,2143,19;ESP,11289,130;FRA,13072,649,43;BEL,293 1,7;ITA,1640,20;GBR,6178,37;NLD,4602,15
    ISR,12306,42;HUN,951,8;CZE,3827,25;AUT,848,6;ROM,1 767,47,UKR,3497,63;POL,974,28
    According to a preprint, Tokyo reached 46% AB-Seroprevalence
    to myself : I should update mobility charts
    Austria :

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  • gsgs

    DEU,1769,13;ESP,10799,241;FRA,10008,78;BEL,1097,2; ITA,1391 ,14;GBR,4926,37;NLD,2245,10
    ISR,2445,12; HUN,633,8;CZE,1566,9;AUT,662,4;ROM,1059,45;UKR,288 4,59;POL,711,18
    Wien,(09:15 MESZ),Aragon,pr=10.9,Madrid,3652,106

    hospitalisations and deaths currently redouble in Spain and France every 14 days

    see here, how Belgium protects the eldery in wave 2 :

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  • gsgs
    DEU,1821,10;ESP,31428,168; FRA,4209,?; BEL,2646,11;ITA,2937,32;GBR,4368,11;NLD,5948,8
    ISR,4300,30;HUN,876,3;CZE,1190,19;AUT,632,1;ROM,80 8,23;UKR,2675,26;POL,748,5
    Wien,205,1,4.16%, Aragon,pr=10.3; Madrid,11991*,24*
    France hospitalizations redouble every 14d, in 42d the positive-rate would reach wave 1 and also compared with other countries, that should
    be the latest peak, hopefully earlier. Then another 14d for the deay in deaths gives 600 deaths per day, 1/3 of the peak in wave 1.
    But wave1 was short, wave2 may be longer, as in the Balkan countries

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  • gsgs
    2020/09/21,Mon {weekend reduction in most countries}
    DEU,922,0;SPA-,-;FRA,11569,311; BEL,2772,8; ITA,3224,39; GBR,3899,18; NLD,1844,4
    ISR,5916,41; HUN,1070,8; CZE,1596,3; AUT,561,1; ROM,1231,33; UKR,2966,41; POL,910,11
    Wien,321,3; Aragon,pr=10.4;Madrid,2256,16
    France chart :
    world charts (at noon GMT=UTC0

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  • gsgs
    DEU,1345,2; SPA,FRA,13498,25; BEL,3701,2; ITA,3544,34; GBR,4422,27; NLD,1974,7
    ISR,6916,35; HUN,809,6; CZE,2057,5; AUT,641,2; ROM,1333,42; UKR,3240,?; POL,1002,12
    Aragon,pr=10.6%(12.9,14.4,16.7,10.7,10.5,10.2,11.0 ,10.6;max was _20.0 early Aug)
    France :
    peak in Austria ???
    3*? = very speculative,uncertain, but worth to watch.
    Remember, they were also early to peak in wave1

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  • gsgs
    France and Spain look bad today
    -------edit-------- the increase today in Spain and France is mainly due to corrections

    ================================================= ========
    DEU,2297,6;SPA,14389,90; FRA,13215,154; BEL,2028,1; ITA,1907,10; GBR,4322,27; NLD,1974,7
    ISR,3815,27; HUN,1651,15; CZE,2107,6; AUT,967,5; ROM,1527,48; UKR,3228,-;POL,757,17
    Wien,340,2; Aragon,98,7; Madrid,5086,101,6,29
    850000 in Madrid confined to their borroughs
    we may see the same number of deaths in wave2 in Europe with 3times more cases, due to increased testing.
    Although, in Western Europe maybe not the excess deaths as in wave1, I'm not sure

    Last edited by gsgs; September 19, 2020, 08:02 AM.

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  • gsgs
    commented on 's reply
    Spain, weekly update from ISC :

    Still going up, i.e. a steep increase in deaths. I don't know whether these are real or reports
    coming in late

    Here they daily assign the deaths to the date of occurrence :

    but it's somehow uncertain which provinces have delays, e.g. Aragon-deaths are only included
    every 2nd week in the ISC-reports.
    Although here they are reported daily :
    Entra en la web oficial de Gobierno de Aragón y consulta toda la información, actualidad institucional y trámites administrativos en un solo clic.

  • gsgs

    or the 2nd wave in Europe ....

    France ,
    (that picture should be updated daily)
    Spain ,
    UK :

    205 countries , daily
    Europe,subnational,weekly :

    ================================================== ========
    DEU,1916,7;SPA,11291,162; FRA,10593,50; BEL,1153,5; ITA,1583,13; GBR,3395,21; NLD,1763,6
    ISR,8461,17; HUN,710,9; CZE,3123,7; AUT,824,0; ROM,1679,27; UKR,3584,244; POL,837,16
    Last edited by gsgs; Today, 04:54 AM.
    Last edited by gsgs; September 17, 2020, 11:56 PM.

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  • gsgs
    SE-Europe wave :
    8 more :

    it peaked in Moldova and maybe Ukraine
    worst in Armenia

    Daily and weekly updated statistics tracking the number of COVID-19 cases, recovered, and deaths. Historical data with cumulative charts, graphs, and updates.

    Last edited by gsgs; July 1, 2020, 11:15 PM.

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