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expert opinions about the pandemic risk

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  • expert opinions about the pandemic risk

    I made this list in 2006 about H5N1 ... remember, most experts were pessimistic, warned


    Jan.24: Jeff Hogan

    many are concerned about the possibility of a new pandemic,
    and that is not outside the realm of possibility, according to Jeff Hogan,
    a professor and infectious disease expert at the University of Georgia,
    who studied the SARS coronavirus extensively.
    https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-pandemic.aspx
    However, good old-fashioned public health measures such as quarantine, handwashing,
    surveillance of travelers and the use of advanced respiratory protection for healthcare workers
    was sufficient to end the pandemic in 2003 and are almost certain to do the same
    with the current outbreak."
    While WHO and other authorities have not declared this a pandemic, I do expect this type
    of announcement unless the rate of new cases begins to decline rapidly in the next 7-10 days."
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible
    sustained global spread
    By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
    January 26, 2020
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.26 , Dr. Allison McGeer , Toront , infectious diseases specialist
    “The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able
    to be controlled with public health measures,”
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.26 , Neil Ferguson , Imperial college
    Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world,
    we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,”
    [having issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak]
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.26 , Dr. Nancy Messonnier, CDC
    transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.
    “We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an
    aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,”
    “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do
    might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.26 , Trevor Bedford , computational biologist
    estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.
    “If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,”
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.26 , Dr. Tom Inglesby, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health,
    urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus.
    Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than
    have already been announced
    “I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted
    the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply
    rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on
    those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around
    the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Oct.2019 , Eric Toner, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
    last year modeled what would happen if a deadly
    coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65
    million people could die within 18 months.
    The virus in Toner’s simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine.
    It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.24 , Guan Yi virologist , (SARS,2003) :
    A bigger outbreak is certain,” “conservatively, – that this outbreak could be 10 times
    bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few
    “super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country.
    “We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,
    “What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.26 , Dr Eric Feigl-Ding health expert at Harvard University
    HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive
    R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient
    outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating...
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.24 Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen, Derek A.T. Cummings, Antonia Ho, Chris P.Jewell
    Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
    Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
    Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
    Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
    effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99 percent effective reduction
    in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9 percent,"
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Jan.24 Theodore Standiford , professor of medicine ,interim chief Division of Pulmonary
    and Critical Care Medicine.
    “Also, the risk for pandemic spread of the virus has been minimized by the early
    actions of the Chinese health authorities, WHO and CDC, including prompt closure
    of the site where the infection originated
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

  • #2
    Jan,28 , Jonathan Ball, professor of Virology at the University of Nottingham,
    The threat of a coronavirus pandemic is great, Given the fact that we now seem to think
    that there may be a silent spread of the virus, I think the risk of this virus turning into a
    pandemic is great, "It really is early days to try to understand whether or not it will turn
    pandemic. But I think there is quite a high risk that it might take place."

    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

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