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I made this list in 2006 about H5N1 ... remember, most experts were pessimistic, warned
Jan.24: Jeff Hogan
many are concerned about the possibility of a new pandemic,
and that is not outside the realm of possibility, according to Jeff Hogan,
a professor and infectious disease expert at the University of Georgia,
who studied the SARS coronavirus extensively.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-pandemic.aspx
However, good old-fashioned public health measures such as quarantine, handwashing,
surveillance of travelers and the use of advanced respiratory protection for healthcare workers
was sufficient to end the pandemic in 2003 and are almost certain to do the same
with the current outbreak."
While WHO and other authorities have not declared this a pandemic, I do expect this type
of announcement unless the rate of new cases begins to decline rapidly in the next 7-10 days."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible
sustained global spread
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
January 26, 2020
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Jan.26 , Dr. Allison McGeer , Toront , infectious diseases specialist
“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able
to be controlled with public health measures,”
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Jan.26 , Neil Ferguson , Imperial college
Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world,
we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,”
[having issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Nancy Messonnier, CDC
transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.
“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an
aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,”
“And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do
might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Trevor Bedford , computational biologist
estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.
“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,”
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Jan.26 , Dr. Tom Inglesby, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health,
urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus.
Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than
have already been announced
“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted
the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply
rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on
those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around
the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct.2019 , Eric Toner, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
last year modeled what would happen if a deadly
coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65
million people could die within 18 months.
The virus in Toner’s simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine.
It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 , Guan Yi virologist , (SARS,2003) :
A bigger outbreak is certain,” “conservatively, – that this outbreak could be 10 times
bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few
“super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country.
“We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,
“What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr Eric Feigl-Ding health expert at Harvard University
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive
R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient
outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen, Derek A.T. Cummings, Antonia Ho, Chris P.Jewell
Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99 percent effective reduction
in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9 percent,"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 Theodore Standiford , professor of medicine ,interim chief Division of Pulmonary
and Critical Care Medicine.
“Also, the risk for pandemic spread of the virus has been minimized by the early
actions of the Chinese health authorities, WHO and CDC, including prompt closure
of the site where the infection originated
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24: Jeff Hogan
many are concerned about the possibility of a new pandemic,
and that is not outside the realm of possibility, according to Jeff Hogan,
a professor and infectious disease expert at the University of Georgia,
who studied the SARS coronavirus extensively.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-pandemic.aspx
However, good old-fashioned public health measures such as quarantine, handwashing,
surveillance of travelers and the use of advanced respiratory protection for healthcare workers
was sufficient to end the pandemic in 2003 and are almost certain to do the same
with the current outbreak."
While WHO and other authorities have not declared this a pandemic, I do expect this type
of announcement unless the rate of new cases begins to decline rapidly in the next 7-10 days."
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible
sustained global spread
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
January 26, 2020
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Allison McGeer , Toront , infectious diseases specialist
“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able
to be controlled with public health measures,”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Neil Ferguson , Imperial college
Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world,
we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,”
[having issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Nancy Messonnier, CDC
transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.
“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an
aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,”
“And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do
might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Trevor Bedford , computational biologist
estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.
“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Tom Inglesby, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health,
urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus.
Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than
have already been announced
“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted
the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply
rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on
those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around
the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct.2019 , Eric Toner, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
last year modeled what would happen if a deadly
coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65
million people could die within 18 months.
The virus in Toner’s simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine.
It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 , Guan Yi virologist , (SARS,2003) :
A bigger outbreak is certain,” “conservatively, – that this outbreak could be 10 times
bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few
“super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country.
“We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,
“What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr Eric Feigl-Ding health expert at Harvard University
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive
R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient
outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen, Derek A.T. Cummings, Antonia Ho, Chris P.Jewell
Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99 percent effective reduction
in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9 percent,"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 Theodore Standiford , professor of medicine ,interim chief Division of Pulmonary
and Critical Care Medicine.
“Also, the risk for pandemic spread of the virus has been minimized by the early
actions of the Chinese health authorities, WHO and CDC, including prompt closure
of the site where the infection originated
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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