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A computer model developed by scientists at the University of Chicago shows that small increases in transmission rates of the seasonal influenza A virus (H3N2) can lead to rapid evolution of new strains that spread globally through human populations. The results of this analysis, published September 13, 2016 in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, reinforce the idea that surveillance for developing new, seasonal vaccines should be focused on areas of east, south and southeast Asia where population size and community dynamics can increase transmission of endemic strains of the flu.
"The transmissibility is a feature of the pathogen, but it's also a feature of the host population," said Sarah Cobey, PhD, assistant professor of ecology and evolution at the University of Chicago and senior author of the study. "So a host population that potentially has more crowding, larger classroom sizes for children, or even certain types of social contact networks, potentially sustains higher transmission rates for the same virus or pathogen."
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"The transmissibility is a feature of the pathogen, but it's also a feature of the host population," said Sarah Cobey, PhD, assistant professor of ecology and evolution at the University of Chicago and senior author of the study. "So a host population that potentially has more crowding, larger classroom sizes for children, or even certain types of social contact networks, potentially sustains higher transmission rates for the same virus or pathogen."
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