Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Why H5N1 didn't cause a pandemic

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Why H5N1 didn't cause a pandemic

    Sanjay Tanday, healthcarerepublic.com,
    19 November 2009, 00:10am

    Bird flu has so far failed to cause a pandemic because at least two simultaneous genetic mutations in the virus are required before it can be transmitted readily from human to human, latest research suggests.
    At present, H5 viruses can only infect one of the two main types of cell in the mouth and nose, a type of cell known as a ciliated cell. In order for H5 to transmit from human to human, it would need to mutate to be able to infect the other, non-ciliated type of cell as well.
    Lead researcher Professor Wendy Barclay, from the Division of Investigative Science at Imperial College London, said: ‘Our new research suggests that it is less likely than we thought that H5N1 will cause a pandemic, because it's far harder for it to infect the right cells.
    ‘The odds of it undergoing the kind of double mutation that would be needed are extremely low. However, viruses mutate all the time, so we shouldn't be complacent.'
    Link: http://www.healthcarerepublic.com/ne...ause-pandemic/
    Andryna

  • #2
    Re: Why H5N1 didn't cause a pandemic

    Thank you Andryna - and welcome. Perhaps the journalist should have titled this "Why H5N1 hasn't caused a pandemic yet!"
    “The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Why H5N1 didn't cause a pandemic

      http://www.plosone.org/article/fetch...esentation=PDF
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: [url]http://bit.ly/hFI7H[/url] ILI-charts: [url]http://bit.ly/CcRgT[/url]

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Why H5N1 didn't cause a pandemic

        Originally posted by kiwibird View Post
        Thank you Andryna - and welcome. Perhaps the journalist should have titled this "Why H5N1 hasn't caused a pandemic yet!"


        Thanks Andryna ...the analysis sounds right on, except for the appropriate observation from kiwibird ought to have been included.

        YET!

        All Type A human influenza viruses have evolved from wild type bird flu viruses, and H1N1 did the same thing in 1918 after adapting to swine...
        H5N1 is endemic to Indonesia, and every year since 2007 there have been waves of poultry culls for H5N1 in Egypt, Vietnam, Thailand and China, and as recently as the past week there are more reports of suspect H5N1 and also other avian flu outbreaks from S. Korea to Indonesia and there have been announcements of renewed bird surveillance and monitoring programs across much of Central and South Asia and the Middle East.

        Thus the likelihood that it will get the necessary gene sequences from H1N1 2009A is greater now,as H1N1 spreads globally, and indeed, each and every H1N1 coinfection with H5N1 (whether in swine or pets or poultry or humans) may recombine as a much fitter H1N1 variant and/or H5N1 variant. It's all in the hands of God and the angels at this point IMHO.
        Last edited by Roehl_JC; November 20th, 2009, 07:14 PM. Reason: wording

        Comment

        Working...
        X