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  • #61
    Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

    Source: http://topnews.us/content/230609-sco...urge-flu-cases

    Submitted by Ria Patel on Fri, 12/17/2010

    As per the latest statistics, last week in Scotland, the number of people affected with flu surged and the total cases of deaths from the disease in the UK increased to 17.

    The figures have been released by the Health Protection Scotland (HPS). This winter, till now, the total number of flu cases has been found to be 42 in Scotland and those seeing the GP for flu like sickness have jumped up to 36.1 per 100,000 in the last week from 28.8.

    In Scotland, six patients had to be submitted in intensive care unit after they caught swine flu and two of them succumbed to it...

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

      Is that bird flu finding in the virus dangerous?,thanks.

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

        Originally posted by vinny View Post
        Is that bird flu finding in the virus dangerous?,thanks.
        Absolutely, NOT!

        This is the former H1N1 (2009) pandemic influenza virus.

        It is worth to remind that this strain has already circulated in UK during summer of last year and that current trivalent seasonal vaccines include it as third component with the two other familiar strains, namely H3 and B.

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

          many thanks. Nothing is being reported here about this !

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

            Many thanks ironorehopper, you have put my mind at rest.

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: UK Neuraminidase with Adjacent Bird Flu Polymorphisms

              Originally posted by NS1 View Post
              Perhaps one of the contributing sparks in the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place> has been located.

              <o:p></o:p>
              <o:p></o:p>
              Two adjacent bird flu polymorphisms are emerging on the pandemic H1N1 NA segment primarily within 2010 human sequences that carry the HA 188T. This two change combination is found in PF11 on 17 Neuraminidase sequences, but more than 200 times in Avian H3N8, Avian H1N1 and every Avian HxN1 serotype from H2N1 to H12N1. The UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 carries these two adjacent NA changes.

              <o:p></o:p>
              <o:p></o:p>
              HA 188T is highly correlated with NA syn240T & 241I combination.

              <o:p></o:p>
              <o:p></o:p>
              HA<o:p></o:p>
              <o:p></o:p>
              . . . . UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 (<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 0A,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . syn55L [S9, H5N1], <o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Iran16273_2009_11_22 with 226R<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NZ_Waikato2_2010_01_04 with 233H,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . tkOntarioFAV117_1C_2009_12_07, et al],<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 188T [H6N1, H7N7],<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . syn338G [H3N8, H4, H5, H6, sw],<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [OzBrisbane209_51F_2010_08_09<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 156E & 225G,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Arizona05_2010_05_11 with 0A,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Swine Asia 2005 with 0A, et al]<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 377K,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
              . . . . . . . . . . [Florida14_24M_2010_08_05
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 188T, 454N,
              . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 225E,
              . . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX
              . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 159D, 224K, et al],<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . syn529L ctTgtagtctccctgggg)

              <o:p></o:p>
              <o:p></o:p>
              NA
              <o:p></o:p>
              <o:p></o:p>
              . . . . UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 (<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 79P,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 100H mix wt,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . syn109G,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . syn240T,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 241I,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . 369K,<o:p></o:p>
              . . . . . . . . syn377P)

              Notes:<o:p></o:p>
              syn240T with 241I
              BLAST string=ggttcttgctttaccata, <o:p></o:p>
              GISAID exam=212 matches
              pH1N1 2010 Human ~ 16
              pH1N1 2009 Human ~ 1
              Remainder are Avian Influenza:
              H3N8 mallard/Ohio/184/1986
              Avian H1N1, H2N1, H3N1, H4N1, H5N1, H6N1, H7N1, H9N1, H10N1, H11N1, H12N1
              Although travel-log of the above mentioned gene polymorphisms is very useful to track evolution and to understand influenza viruses ecology and the development of distinct lineages, the actual impact on field epidemiology remains to be established.

              In other words, we have to wait at least for two or three week, when the epidemic peak should be reached and a first, retrospective analysis of transmissibility and intrinsic virulence of H1N1 (2009) strains are circulating in UK and elsewhere will be more clear.

              Human immune system can fight influenza probably even with immune memory and not only through the main humoral response, elicited by vaccines.

              Common-sense hygiene measures, such as handwashing, cough etiquette, and avoid crowded places, as well as remaining at home when ill or feverish represent also very useful instrument to reduce or slow the speed of propagation of the virus into community.

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                Source: ECDC, http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/healtht..._countries.pdf

                At FT: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...94&postcount=1

                (...)

                The experience in the United Kingdom: useful for other countries

                The experience in the United Kingdom can give some important indications of what is most likely to occur soon in other EU/EEA countries, except those that had a high coverage with the pandemic vaccine in 2009 (such as Finland, Norway and Sweden).

                According to the information provided by the Health Protection Agency (week 49 report)
                • there has been considerable pressure on intensive care units and extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) since early December 2010;
                • community consultation rates crossed the epidemic threshold in weeks 48 and 49, but influenza rates in the community have been lower than would be expected from the observed pressure on intensive care units. This may reflect the fact that, similar to the situation during the pandemic but in contrast to previous seasonal influenzas, most people infected with the influenza A(H1N1)2009 virus experience only mild illness or no illness at all, but in a few the infection results in a very severe disease(6)
                • The pattern of severe disease is similar to the that observed during the pandemic:
                  • most patients affected are under 65 years-old;
                  • most, but not all have risk factors (chronic disease or pregnancy);
                  • as of 16 December, 17 deaths have been reported including one pregnant woman;
                  • of the 14 fatal cases for whom vaccination records were available, none had had the 2009 pandemic vaccine or the 2010 seasonal vaccine, which is compatible with the fact that the vaccine is up to 80&#37; effective;
                  • virological analysis of isolates from this season's severely affected cases has not revealed any observable difference to the influenza A(H1N1) viruses since 2009; it is therefore likely that the higher impact on hospitals simply reflects the effect of influenza B viruses present in addition to the A(H1N1) viruses;

                • It is important to monitor the virology carefully and relate them to the clinical details, because an unexplained oseltamivir resistance has been noted in a very few cases.



                Actions adopted in the United Kingdom

                Actions recently adopted in the United Kingdom include:
                • Preparing intensive care and ECMO services to accommodate more pressure;
                • Emphasising seasonal immunisation especially for risk groups, i.e. pregnant women and those with chronic medical conditions(7)
                • Advocating use of antivirals for people with possible influenza who are ill enough to be hospitalised and for ill patients seen in primary care, those who belong to a risk group and also others that doctors consider would benefit(8).


                (...)


                (1) Paget J, Marquet R, Meijer A, van der Velden. Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999-2007): BMC Infect Dis. 2007;7(1):141. (LINK)
                (2) Meijer A, Lackenby A, Hungnes O, et al. Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A (H1N1) virus, Europe, 2007–08 season. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(4):552-60. (LINK)
                (3) Merecekiene J on behalf of the VENICE Consortium. Overview of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 influenza vaccination in Europe. Preliminary results of survey conducted by VENICE, 2010 ESCAIDE Conference; Lisbon; 13 November 2010. (LINK)
                (4) Likely scenarios and uncertainties in the 2010/2011 influenza season in Europe and beyond. ECDC Forward Look Risk Assessment. October 2010. (LINK)
                (5) World Health Organisation Influenza Update No 123. Geneva: WHO; 17 December 2010. (LINK)
                (6) Miller E, Hoschler K, Hardelid P, Stanford E, Andrews N, Zambon M. Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study. Lancet, ;375(9720):1100-8. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)62126-7 (LINK)
                (7) Flu vaccination for pregnant women. UK Department of Health; 16 December 2010. (LINK)
                (8) Treatment guidelines for patients with influenza 2010/2011. UK Department of Health; 14 December 2010. (LINK)

                -
                -----

                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                  WebMD also carrying the story -

                  Flu cases double in a week

                  Biggest rise in cases is in school children, GPs say
                  By Tim Locke
                  WebMD Health News
                  Reviewed by Dr Keith David Barnard


                  22<sup>nd</sup> December 2010 -

                  GPs in England and Wales say flu cases have more than doubled in a week. The biggest rise in cases is in schoolchildren aged five to 14.

                  snip

                  The Royal College of GPs compiled cases of flu-like symptoms in England and Wales from 69 surgeries that included more than 71,000 patients.
                  Flu-like illness cases have risen from just under 33 per 100,000 people a week ago to over 87 per 100,000 this week.


                  Rates have also increased in people aged 45-64 years, but remain comparatively low in older people aged over 65. There have also been substantial increases in all age groups of reports of acute bronchitis and the common cold.


                  more...


                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                    From the Royal College of General Practitioners -

                    Urgent healthcare message: seasonal flu


                    21 December 2010


                    CMO guidance on prescribing anti virals, infection control.
                    <hr style="width: 100&#37;; height: 3px;">
                    Dear colleagues

                    The interim Chief Medical Officer for England has today issued a letter recommending that the current restrictions to prescribing anti virals should be amended to allow general practitioners (and other prescribers) to exercise their clinical discretion so that any patient who their GP feels is at serious risk of developing complications from influenza may receive these treatments on the NHS. This is consistent with guidance from NICE which informs the existing statutory restrictions but which envisages that prescribers may exercise their clinical discretion in individual cases.

                    This advice applies to England and Wales. Members in Scotland and Nothern Ireland are advised that the regulatory position has not changed in these countries. Members in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are advised to check their own country's guidance.

                    Infection control
                    We have been asked whether GPs should divert patients who are suffering from flu-like symptoms away from the surgery as an infection control measure. As we are currently not in pandemic, and the strains of flu in this outbreak are known, we do not feel that this is necessary at this stage. However practices will want to consider how they manage infection control on a local level. For example, perhaps designating a specific area of the surgery for flu patients.

                    Best wishes,

                    Dr. Maureen Baker CBE
                    Health Protection Lead, RCGP

                    Dr Clare Gerada
                    Chair, RCGP


                    FURTHER INFORMATION
                    RCGP Press office – 020 3188 7576 / 7575 / 7574
                    Out of hours: 07885 958 632
                    press@rcgp.org.uk

                    NOTES TO EDITORS
                    The Royal College of General Practitioners is a network of over 42,000 family doctors working to improve care for patients. We work to encourage and maintain the highest standards of general medical practice and act as the voice of GPs on education, training, research and clinical standards.


                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                      Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
                      Source: http://topnews.us/content/230904-swi...eaches-prisons

                      Swine Flu Reaches Prisons!
                      Submitted by Satish Karat on Wed, 12/22/2010 - 09:04

                      The menace of swine flu has reached prisons also as there have been found seven cases of H1N1 influenza at two major jails.

                      Seven prisoners at HMP Manchester and HMP Hindley have been detected positive with swine flu. There are concerns that the virus could spread in the whole prison and could prove fatal for many people behind the bars.

                      Two cases of H1N1 influenza have been conformed at Category A Manchester jail, while rest of the five cases were found at Category B Hindley, near Wigan, Lancs...

                      Please see -

                      hat tip Ironorehopper -

                      Guidance on Responding to Cases or Outbreaks of Seasonal Flu 2010/2011 in Prisons and other closed Institutions within the criminal justice system in England. (UK HPA, Dec. 22 2010)

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                        Masses of people stressed, cold - ideal for spreading flu...

                        Airports chaos is ?unacceptable?, says EU
                        By Danny Kemp London

                        Wednesday, December 22, 2010

                        THE EU lashed out at airports yesterday for the "unacceptable" disruption caused by freezing weather across Europe as fresh snowfall added to the woes of thousands of stranded Christmas travellers.

                        Britain said it could use troops to end the disruption at London Heathrow, where passengers have been sleeping in terminals throughout days of chaos, while Frankfurt airport closed for several hours.





                        Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland...#ixzz18sqGMk9C
                        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Single Genetic Variance May Elicit Substantial Viral Behaviour Changes

                          Originally posted by ironorehopper View Post
                          Although travel-log of the above mentioned gene polymorphisms is very useful to track evolution and to understand influenza viruses ecology and the development of distinct lineages, the actual impact on field epidemiology remains to be established.

                          In other words, we have to wait at least for two or three week, when the epidemic peak should be reached and a first, retrospective analysis of transmissibility and intrinsic virulence of H1N1 (2009) strains are circulating in UK and elsewhere will be more clear.

                          Human immune system can fight influenza probably even with immune memory and not only through the main humoral response, elicited by vaccines.

                          Common-sense hygiene measures, such as handwashing, cough etiquette, and avoid crowded places, as well as remaining at home when ill or feverish represent also very useful instrument to reduce or slow the speed of propagation of the virus into community.

                          Hindsight is practically more accurate than foresight. We all may agree on that fact.

                          Once an event has passed, the deeper measurements that were taken during the event may be closely evaluated. Given that consideration, proposals should be in hand now across the UK. Field epidemiology, in this present matter, may be justified in increasing assets to the present cases so that these questions may be answered very soon . . . prior to a more distinct or more severe wave.

                          In most cases of genetic variation, the clinical variation may only be known by closely tracking, correlating and culling the data points. In the UK today, severe disease is a fact, at a higher concentration than has been seen (another fact), whilst the overall case count remains low. Those general cumulative statistics guide us to a more detailed investigation which must occur at the individual case level. In order for those investigations of the actionable data to occur, the importance data points must be captured at the time of the event.

                          When the count of ICU beds for ILI has risen from 100 to 302 over less than two weeks, clearly additional and improved surveillance is indicated.

                          Ergo, very few genetic changes may be conclusively deemed as creating a generalised "severe" outcome.

                          On the other hand, if the data is not gathered at the time of the event, neither the scientists, nor the public will ever discern the potential connections. Blind is blind, but closing one's eyes at the critical time immediately prior to any crisis is an intentional decision. Those types of decisions are predictable as to outcome: preparation time and quality is reduced.

                          Let's continue to closely investigate and postulate each iota of information available, while encouraging more robust systems and deeper participation.

                          The NA polymorphisms discussed here are highly correlated to the HA 188T that has recently begun spreading (rare yet) across the world. If that HA 188T is under inspection, perhaps we all should increase focus to this associated NA pair of changes at aa240 and aa241.

                          This NA question is raised alongside the more distinct potential of a significant change in the RBS range from 225 to 230.

                          What we do know is that present and historical data perfectly demonstrate that very slight changes in genetics, as few as one genetic change, may create much higher levels of severity.

                          Is this change one of those types of variations? No risk at all exists in evaluating the potential. Significant risk is created when emerging data is tabled for "future study" during a crisis.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Variation at Amino Acid 223 or 224

                            Originally posted by ironorehopper View Post
                            Although travel-log of the above mentioned gene polymorphisms is very useful to track evolution and to understand influenza viruses ecology and the development of distinct lineages, the actual impact on field epidemiology remains to be established.

                            In other words, we have to wait at least for two or three week, when the epidemic peak should be reached and a first, retrospective analysis of transmissibility and intrinsic virulence of H1N1 (2009) strains are circulating in UK and elsewhere will be more clear.

                            Human immune system can fight influenza probably even with immune memory and not only through the main humoral response, elicited by vaccines.

                            Common-sense hygiene measures, such as handwashing, cough etiquette, and avoid crowded places, as well as remaining at home when ill or feverish represent also very useful instrument to reduce or slow the speed of propagation of the virus into community.
                            Working with the current sparse data allows very few comprehensive and exacting responses; however, based on simple frequency analysis, a very slight potential also exists in the UK for HA changes upstream and adjacent to aa225, at residues 223 or 224.

                            At this juncture, "Low Reactors" are recorded with 224 amino acid variation on backgrounds with additional changes, but the single change has not been evaluated alone on a pH1N1 background for Vaccine Escape as far as we've seen. Validation on this matter would be appreciated.

                            223E was only recently documented in the PF11 reservoir from the early pandemic last year from the Southern Hemisphere in Brisbane. As the White Chapel sequence, UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28, taken from the 2 year old boy prior to the severe UK wave is closely related to an August 2010 Brisbane sequence as discussed, we all must be on watch for changes beyond the most likely aa225.

                            Will the severity in the UK be caused by a single change or a complex of variation?

                            No one will know until properly managed sequences are available in quantity with clinical metadata.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                              Children on swine flu critical list



                              Flu is affecting families all over the UK, leading to at least 36 children in intensive care with swine flu. Of these, 24 are under the age of five.

                              Young children are more susceptible to developing complications with swine flu, as are pregnant women.

                              NHS Direct has revealed that it?s experienced a 50% increase in calls following the cold weather, many ringing about flu. It?s now recruiting more staff to deal with the extra calls.

                              However, Professor Dame Sally Davies, interim chief medical officer, reassured worried families that this season?s flu was ?just winter flu? admitting that swine flu is the main strain.

                              David Cameron also added a note of reassurance, announcing at a press conference, ?While the number of flu cases has doubled in the last week, there is still plenty of capacity in the NHS.?

                              If you?re pregnant or have a young child and suspect flu symptoms, you?re advised to talk to your doctor straight away. Also, pregnant women are being urged to have the flu jab, which has been shown to protect you and your unborn baby.


                              The latest pregnancy, fertility and health news plus celebrity pregnancy gossip

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010) due to influenza

                                NHS Direct 'under growing strain' as doctors told to give Tamiflu to low-risk patients



                                snip

                                It came as doctors were told they could prescribe Tamiflu to otherwise healthy people suffering from flu as the illness prompts a surge in hospital admissions.
                                The move is an indication of the authorities' concern about the risks from swine flu, which has become the predominant strain of the virus this winter and is striking younger age groups than usual.
                                Cases of flu have risen more than six fold in three weeks, the latest figures show.



                                snip


                                Comment

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