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United Kingdom. HPA - Weekly pandemic flu media update (October 1st, 2009, edited)
United Kingdom. HPA - Weekly pandemic flu media update (October 1st, 2009, edited)
Weekly pandemic flu media update
1 October 2009
KEY POINTS
Following the move from laboratory testing for confirmation of swine flu to clinical diagnosis of cases, the level of flu in the community is being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms, including the RCGP consultation rates, QSurveillance?, and the National Pandemic Flu Service.A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:https://www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surv...e&epidemiology
CLINICAL INDICATORS
Clinical data are obtained from GP surgeries that report the weekly and daily consultations for flu-like illness and other acute respiratory illness.
Current estimated weekly Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) consultation rates of flu-like illness
From a network of approximately 100 general practices covering a population of approximately 900,000 with an equal distribution within each of three defined reporting regions; North, Central and South.
In week 39 (ending 27 September) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England increased compared to the previous week (16.2 per 100,000 to 22.2 per 100,000). Most age groups saw an increase but remain below baseline threshold in England.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
QSurveillance?
Set up by the University of Nottingham and EMIS (the main supplier of general practice computer systems within the UK) in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency. QSurveillance? is a not-for-profit network over 3,300 general practices covering a total population of almost 22 million patients (> 25% of the UK population).
The weekly QSurveillance? flu-like illness consultation rate increased from 17.3 per 100,000 in week 38 to 25.0 per 100,000 in week 39. The daily rate for flu-like illness have showed an increased level of ILI activity.
NB: QSurveillance? is based on data from 43% of England's population (about 3000 practices), 10% of the population in Wales, 17% in Northern Ireland, and 0% in Scotland.
Figure 2: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance? - daily consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 39 (ending 27 September)
The latest weekly flu-like illness rates show that the highest flu-like illness consultation rates were in the 5-14 and 15-24 year-old age groups. Compared to week 38 this week (week 39) rates have increased in all age groups, particularly in the 5-14 year-olds (25.7 to 42.8 per 100,000).
SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
NHS Direct
On 23 July the National Pandemic Flu Service was implemented. This had an impact on the number of 'cold/flu' calls received through the routine NHS Direct service. For this reason, data from NHS Direct do not reflect the true pattern of cold/ flu callers and so are not currently an accurate surveillance tool.
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 30 September 2009) 1,023 viruses have been analysed by the Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). Two viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK. In addition, 260 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility. The Agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
INTERNATIONAL SUMMARY
Confirmed global deaths reported by ECDC (Update 17:00 CEST 30 September 2009)
In the last 7 days, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 5% - lower than the 12% increase reported last week.
NB: Laboratory confirmed case numbers are no longer being reported for most countries as they do not give a representative view of the actual number of cases worldwide.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on 25 September that for:
This update summarises information published by WHO about the latest global situation and is also published on the WHO website at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influ...mmendation.pdf
ENDS
Notes to editors
General infection control practices and good respiratory hand hygiene can help to reduce transmission of all viruses, including swine flu. This includes:
Further information on swine flu is available on the Health Protection Agency's website at www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu.
For media enquiries only please contact the Health Protection Agency's Centre for Infections press office on: 020 8327 7080 - 020 8327 7097 - 020 8327 7098 - 020 8327 6690 - 020 8327 6647
Last reviewed: 1 October 2009
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<cite cite="http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1253205558700?p=1231252394302">HPA - Weekly pandemic flu media update</cite>
1 October 2009
KEY POINTS
- Rates of flu-like illness and related activity have shown further increases in England. The largest rises in England have been seen in the North West and Yorkshire and Humber.
- The flu-like illness rate in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme increased to 22.2 per 100,000 in week 39. Most age groups saw an increase.
- This week, the antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service have continued to increase and this has been seen in all age groups. The largest increase was in the 25-44 year olds (8,796 in week 38 to 12,055 in week 39).
- Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 14,000 new cases in England last week (range 7,000 to 30,000). This is a 50 per cent rise since the previous week. This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.
- Globally, activity is generally increasing in the northern hemisphere, is variable in the tropical regions and has largely returned to baseline in the southern hemisphere.
Following the move from laboratory testing for confirmation of swine flu to clinical diagnosis of cases, the level of flu in the community is being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms, including the RCGP consultation rates, QSurveillance?, and the National Pandemic Flu Service.A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:https://www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surv...e&epidemiology
CLINICAL INDICATORS
Clinical data are obtained from GP surgeries that report the weekly and daily consultations for flu-like illness and other acute respiratory illness.
Current estimated weekly Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) consultation rates of flu-like illness
From a network of approximately 100 general practices covering a population of approximately 900,000 with an equal distribution within each of three defined reporting regions; North, Central and South.
In week 39 (ending 27 September) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England increased compared to the previous week (16.2 per 100,000 to 22.2 per 100,000). Most age groups saw an increase but remain below baseline threshold in England.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
QSurveillance?
Set up by the University of Nottingham and EMIS (the main supplier of general practice computer systems within the UK) in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency. QSurveillance? is a not-for-profit network over 3,300 general practices covering a total population of almost 22 million patients (> 25% of the UK population).
The weekly QSurveillance? flu-like illness consultation rate increased from 17.3 per 100,000 in week 38 to 25.0 per 100,000 in week 39. The daily rate for flu-like illness have showed an increased level of ILI activity.
NB: QSurveillance? is based on data from 43% of England's population (about 3000 practices), 10% of the population in Wales, 17% in Northern Ireland, and 0% in Scotland.
Figure 2: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance? - daily consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 39 (ending 27 September)
The latest weekly flu-like illness rates show that the highest flu-like illness consultation rates were in the 5-14 and 15-24 year-old age groups. Compared to week 38 this week (week 39) rates have increased in all age groups, particularly in the 5-14 year-olds (25.7 to 42.8 per 100,000).
SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE
NHS Direct
On 23 July the National Pandemic Flu Service was implemented. This had an impact on the number of 'cold/flu' calls received through the routine NHS Direct service. For this reason, data from NHS Direct do not reflect the true pattern of cold/ flu callers and so are not currently an accurate surveillance tool.
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 30 September 2009) 1,023 viruses have been analysed by the Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). Two viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK. In addition, 260 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility. The Agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
- Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 286 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 30 September). These have increased in all age groups.
- Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 72 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
INTERNATIONAL SUMMARY
Confirmed global deaths reported by ECDC (Update 17:00 CEST 30 September 2009)
- Total deaths reported 4,334
In the last 7 days, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 5% - lower than the 12% increase reported last week.
NB: Laboratory confirmed case numbers are no longer being reported for most countries as they do not give a representative view of the actual number of cases worldwide.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on 25 September that for:
- Tropical regions: influenza activity remains variable. Parts of India, Bangladesh and Cambodia continue to have active influenza transmission, while Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand report declining transmission. Most tropical areas of the Americas still report regional to widespread influenza activity, with no consistent pattern in the trend of respiratory diseases: Peru and Mexico reported an increasing trend in some areas, while Bolivia, Venezuela and Brazil report decreasing trends.
- Temperate southern hemisphere regions: influenza transmission has largely returned to baseline (Chile, Argentina and New Zealand) or is starting to decline (Australia and South Africa).
- Temperate northern hemisphere regions: The United States reports continued increases in activity above the seasonal baseline, primarily in the southeast but now also in the upper midwest and northeast. In Europe, the Netherlands, France, Ireland and Israel are reporting rates above the seasonal baseline. Influenza activity in Japan continues to be slightly above the seasonal epidemic threshold. Increases in flu-like activity were accompanied by increases in laboratory isolations of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 in most of these areas.
This update summarises information published by WHO about the latest global situation and is also published on the WHO website at http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influ...mmendation.pdf
ENDS
Notes to editors
General infection control practices and good respiratory hand hygiene can help to reduce transmission of all viruses, including swine flu. This includes:
- Maintaining good basic hygiene, for example washing hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of virus from your hands to face or to other people.
- Cleaning hard surfaces (e.g. door handles) frequently using a normal cleaning product.
- Covering your nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, using a tissue when possible.
- Disposing of dirty tissues promptly and carefully.
- Making sure your children follow this advice.
Further information on swine flu is available on the Health Protection Agency's website at www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu.
For media enquiries only please contact the Health Protection Agency's Centre for Infections press office on: 020 8327 7080 - 020 8327 7097 - 020 8327 7098 - 020 8327 6690 - 020 8327 6647
Last reviewed: 1 October 2009
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