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France - Influenza: Situation observed in week 04 of 2015, from 01/19/2015 to 01/25/2015

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  • France - Influenza: Situation observed in week 04 of 2015, from 01/19/2015 to 01/25/2015

    Translation Google

    metropolitan France
    Situation observed in week 04 of 2015, from 01/19/2015 to 01/25/2015:

    Influenza syndromes? : Epidemic activity in two weeks epidemic 457,000 people have visited a doctor

    Influenza syndromes

    Clinical monitoring: in metropolitan France, last week, the incidence rate of cases of influenza-like illness seen in general practice was estimated at 470 cases per 100 000 inhabitants (95% [433; 507]) or 303 000 new cases, above the epidemic threshold (177 cases per 100 000 population). [1] This second consecutive week threshold exceeded confirms the arrival of the flu epidemic in metropolitan France.

    Regionally, the highest incidence rates were observed in: Limousin (1688 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, 95% CI [1115, 2261]), Picardie (761, 95% [429, 1093]) and Auvergne (632, 95% CI [444; 820]).

    Regarding the cases reported last week, the median age was 23 years (4 months to 100 years); men accounted for 47% of cases. Clinical charts reported by sentinel physicians showed no particular sign of severity: the percentage of hospitalization was estimated at 0.5% (95% CI [0.0, 1.1]).

    Virological surveillance: from the 2014s40 week date of resumption of monitoring, 867 samples were taken by doctors Sentinel network. 294 of these samples, positive detection was obtained for influenza viruses, which are as follows:
    - 67 (23%) type A (H1N1) pdm09,
    - 185 (63%) type A virus (H3N2)
    - 5 (2%) Type A viruses subtyped not,
    - 2 (1%) Type B Victoria lineage viruses.
    - 32 (11%) Type B Yamagata lineage viruses.
    - 3 (1%) of influenza B lineage not determined.

    The samples were analyzed by the CNR influenzae virus (CC Paris, Lyon LA) and the virology laboratory at the University of Corsica.

    Forecast: According to the forecast model based on historical data [2] and drug sales (IMS-Health Partnership) [3], the intensity of the flu epidemic is expected to continue to grow this week.

    Estimated share attributable to influenza

    Among ILI consultation described above, the number of consultations due to influenza is estimated at 236,000 (prediction interval of 90% [189 000; 282 000]). Within 2 weeks of an epidemic, the number of consultations for influenza was estimated at 321,000 (90% IP [228000; 414000]).

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