Russia's attack on Ukraine raises a harrowing question: How widespread would fallout from a nuclear bomb be?
Aria Bendix
Feb 25, 2022, 11:17 AM
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A nuclear strike is unlikely but not altogether implausible, experts told Insider.
"I hope it doesn't escalate, and I think there's a good chance that it doesn't, but the risk is real whenever nuclear-armed states are engaged in conflict with one another," Tara Drozdenko, the director of the Union of Concerned Scientists' Global Security Program, told Insider.
"Ukraine doesn't have nuclear weapons, so the risk of nuclear war in this scenario is if, somehow, the conflict escalated to pull in NATO countries or the US," she added. "That raises the risk of nuclear confrontation because some of the NATO countries have nuclear weapons."
The US has about 5,500 nuclear weapons, while Russia has about 6,000, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Drozdenko said US nukes generally had explosive yields equivalent to about 300 kilotons of TNT, while Russian nukes tended to range from 50 to 100 kilotons to 500 to 800 kilotons, though each country has more powerful nuclear weapons.
"Modern weapons are 20 to 30 times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki," Drozdenko said, adding: "If the US and Russia launched everything that they had, it could potentially be a civilization-ending event.
Death, starvation, radiation poisoning, and 3rd-degree burns
A single nuclear weapon can easily wipe out an entire city, Kathryn Higley, a professor of nuclear science at Oregon State University, told Insider.
"It's really hard to say, 'Well, this city will survive and that city won't,'" she added. "It's very, very dependent on weapon size, what the topography looks like, where they detonate it, who's upwind, who's downwind."
When a nuclear bomb strikes, it sets off a flash of light, a giant orange fireball, and building-toppling shockwaves. People at the center of the explosion (within half a mile for a 300-kiloton bomb) could be killed right away, while others in the vicinity could suffer third-degree burns. A 1,000-kiloton nuclear blast might produce third-degree burns up to 5 miles away, second-degree burns up to 6 miles away, and first-degree burns up to 7 miles away, according to one estimate from AsapScience. People up to 53 miles away could also experience temporary blindness.
"Say you're in a city, and you are far enough away from the blast center that you don't get a lethal dose of radiation — you are very likely going to be injured by a falling building or have third-degree burns over a large portion of your body," Drozdenko said, adding: "There are not enough empty burn beds in all of the United States to deal with even a single nuclear attack on one city in the US."...
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