Ukraine War - Economic Consequences thread - February 24+

[sharon sanders]

Russian source.


Some types of economic relief to citizens including a credit holiday. I am guessing the credit holiday is a loan repayment holiday - maybe like car and mortgage payments?

12:59 03/04/2022(updated: 13:37 03/04/2022)
64218

The State Duma adopted a law on measures to support citizens and businesses
The State Duma adopted a law containing a set of measures to support citizens and businesses


MOSCOW, March 4 - RIA Novosti. The State Duma adopted a law containing a set of measures to support businesses and the population.

The document developed by the government allows the introduction of a moratorium on scheduled inspections of small and medium-sized businesses in 2022, as well as on scheduled inspections of accredited organizations in the IT industry until the end of 2024.

In addition, the initiative simplifies the procedure for obtaining the status of a participant in a free economic zone in Crimea - an organization registered outside it, it is enough to have a branch or representative office on the peninsula.

In addition, the State Duma also approved a law on credit holidays - this measure provides for the deferment of payments or a reduction in their size.


zhttps://ria.ru/20220304/podderzhka-1776476650.html

[sharon sanders]

Russian source.



10:30 03/04/2022(updated: 17:34 03/04/2022)
109749

Gas pumping through Yamal-Europe suspended
Pumping through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline was stopped from 9:00



A worker at the gas compressor station of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline


Read ria.ru in



MOSCOW, March 4 - RIA Novosti. From 9:00 a.m., the pumping of gas through the Yamal-Europe from Russia to Germany stopped, follows from the data of the German operator Gascade and the GSA Platform auction site.

At the same time, the line's direct capacities are booked for all gas days.

On the eve of " Gazprom " bought the capacity of "Yamal-Europe" in the amount of about 750 thousand cubic meters per hour of the proposed 3.7 million cubic meters - almost 20 percent of the total supply. The company can use the capacity from 08:00 Moscow time on March 4 to 08:00 Moscow time on March 5.


zhttps://ria.ru/20220304/gaz-1776430813.html

[sharon sanders]

Russian source


MOSCOW, March 4 - RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinskaya. The Russian car market on the eve of the collapse. The collapse of the ruble and the cessation of supplies forced dealers to urgently rewrite price tags. Now even for the once budget models they ask for almost two million rubles. In the salons they shrug their hands: this is not the limit. And dealers are waiting for empty halls - there will be neither cars nor buyers. How events can develop further, understood RIA Novosti.


Worse than yesterday



In the past year, cars have risen in price by a third. The market was hit by inflation, rising energy prices, and changes in the terms of the preferential car loan program. However, the main problem was the shortage of microcircuits and other components - all over the world.

snip

“Demand for car loans has already collapsed. It is unlikely that there will be many who want to take them at 20% plus,” says Andrey Olkhovsky, general director of Avtodom Group of Companies.

more..

zhttps://ria.ru/20220304/avtomobili-1776363634.html

[sharon sanders]

Pro-West source - especially Britain.

Ukraine war is economic catastrophe, warns World Bank


By Jonathan Josephs
Business reporter, BBC News
Published4 hours ago



snip

Food crunch


Mr Malpass points out that both Russia and Ukraine are big food producers. Ukraine is the world's biggest producer of sunflower oil, with Russia number two, according to S&P Global Platts. Between them they account for 60% of global production.

The two countries also account for 28.9% of global wheat exports according to JP Morgan. Wheat prices on the Chicago future exchange have been trading at 14-year highs.


more..

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60610537

[sharon sanders]

Russian source


MOSCOW, March 4 - RIA Novosti, Natalia Dembinskaya. The Russian car market on the eve of the collapse. The collapse of the ruble and the cessation of supplies forced dealers to urgently rewrite price tags. Now even for the once budget models they ask for almost two million rubles. In the salons they shrug their hands: this is not the limit. And dealers are waiting for empty halls - there will be neither cars nor buyers. How events can develop further, understood RIA Novosti.


Worse than yesterday



In the past year, cars have risen in price by a third. The market was hit by inflation, rising energy prices, and changes in the terms of the preferential car loan program. However, the main problem was the shortage of microcircuits and other components - all over the world.

snip

“Demand for car loans has already collapsed. It is unlikely that there will be many who want to take them at 20% plus,” says Andrey Olkhovsky, general director of Avtodom Group of Companies.

more..

zhttps://ria.ru/20220304/avtomobili-1776363634.html

Westbound natural gas flows through the Yamal-Europe pipeline resumed late on Friday after they were stopped earlier in the day, a data showed.

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russias-yamal-europe-westbound-gas-pipeline-flows-resumed

[Emily]

The video says they are buying sovereign debt, too. That would be a bet that Russia is going to bounce back, I think.

This kind of predatory behavior is the fodder of conspiracy theories. Are other NATO country banks and funds feeding at the trough that politicians created who themselves likely are making money on all this, (or their relatives)? These sanctions are hurting the whole world and doing no good in stopping Russia.

1998 was bad enough. The default caused by Clinton administration follies enriched crooked Russians and likely Wall Street banks were used to launder IMF loan money. Some connected people in the US are believed to have profited. Poor Russian seniors died from starvation in the cities. The crime got so bad in Russia that people could not even keep savings in the bank because insiders would tell organized crime and thugs would show up in the night to extort money from account holders. That is why Putin was elected.

This time is different. The banks and funds, etc, are profiting on a bloody war and average people all over the world are suffering financially and losing their jobs. We are all watching now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...corporate-debt
Wall Street Is Pouncing on Russia’s Cheap Corporate Debt

• Banks, hedge funds bid on bonds from Gazprom, Russia Railways
• Conventional distressed bets draw scrutiny under shadow of war

By
Laura Benitez,
Sridhar Natarajan, and
Katia Porzecanski

March 3, 2022, 5:59 PM CST Updated on March 4, 2022, 7:45 AM CST
As the U.S. and allies tighten sanctions on Russia and choke off investor demand for its assets, parts of Wall Street are jumping on the buying opportunity that it’s creating.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been purchasing beaten-down company bonds tied to Russia in recent days, as hedge funds that specialize in buying cheap credit look to load up on the assets, according to people with knowledge of the private transactions.
...
“The whole point of the sanctions is to make them and their instruments untouchable,” said Athanassios Diplas, a veteran derivatives trader who was at Goldman Sachs during the 1998 Russian financial crisis. “I have no issues looking at arbitrage opportunities in distressed situations, like back in 1998. But this is different.”...

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[sharon sanders]

Visa Suspends All Russia Operations


3/05/2022


SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 5, 2022-- Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) today announced it is suspending its Russia operations.

Effective immediately, Visa will work with its clients and partners within Russia to cease all Visa transactions over the coming days. Once complete, all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and any Visa cards issued by financial institutions outside of Russia will no longer work within the Russian Federation.

“We are compelled to act following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and the unacceptable events that we have witnessed,” said Al Kelly, chairman and chief executive officer of Visa Inc. “We regret the impact this will have on our valued colleagues, and on the clients, partners, merchants and cardholders we serve in Russia. This war and the ongoing threat to peace and stability demand we respond in line with our values.”

About Visa Inc.

Visa (NYSE: V) is a world leader in digital payments, facilitating payments transactions between consumers, merchants, financial institutions and government entities across more than 200 countries and territories. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, convenient, reliable and secure payments network, enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. We believe that economies that include everyone everywhere, uplift everyone everywhere and see access as foundational to the future of money movement. Learn more at Visa.com.



View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...0305005025/en/

Visa
Andy Gerlt
press@visa.com

Source: Visa Inc.

https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.releaseId.18871.html

------------------------------------------------------------------

Russian source.

MOSCOW, March 6 - RIA Novosti.

Cards of international payment systems Visa and Mastercard will work until the expiration date, then the bank will issue the Mir card itself, informs the press service of the National Payment Card System (NSPK).

more...

zhttps://ria.ru/20220306/karty-1776902335.html

[sharon sanders]

Russian source.

Move supposed to soften effect on Russian card holders due to Visa and MasterCard withdrawal



On Sunday, several Russian banks announced plans to start issuing cards using the Chinese UnionPay card operator system.

more....


zhttps://www.rt.com/business/551352-russia-banks-china-union-pay/

[Pathfinder]

IMF Staff Statement on the Economic Impact of War in Ukraine


March 5, 2022

Washington, DC: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board met on March 4 in a meeting chaired by Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. Staff briefed the Board on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, and on possible fast-tracked financial assistance for affected countries.

The war in Ukraine is resulting in tragic loss of life and human suffering, as well as causing massive damage to Ukraine’s physical infrastructure. It has sent a wave of more than 1 million refugees to neighboring countries. Unprecedented sanctions have been announced on Russia.

While the situation remains highly fluid and the outlook is subject to extraordinary uncertainty,the economic consequences are already very serious. Energy and commodity prices—including wheat and other grains—have surged, adding to inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and the rebound from the Covid‑19 pandemic. Price shocks will have an impact worldwide, especially on poor households for whom food and fuel are a higher proportion of expenses. Should the conflict escalate, the economic damage would be all the more devastating. The sanctions on Russia will also have a substantial impact on the global economy and financial markets, with significant spillovers to other countries.

In many countries, the crisis is creating an adverse shock to both inflation and activity, amid already elevated price pressures. Monetary authorities will need to carefully monitor the pass-through of rising international prices to domestic inflation, to calibrate appropriate responses. Fiscal policy will need to support the most vulnerable households, to help offset rising living costs. This crisis will create complex policy tradeoffs, further complicating the policy landscape as the world economy recovers from the pandemic crisis.

In Ukraine, in addition to the human toll, the economic damage is already substantial. Sea ports and airports are closed and have been damaged, and many roads and bridges have been damaged or destroyed. While it is very difficult to assess financing needs precisely at this stage, it is already clear that Ukraine will face significant recovery and reconstruction costs.

Ukraine has already requested emergency financing of $1.4 billion under the IMF's Rapid Financing Instrument. Staff anticipates bringing this request to the Executive Board for consideration as early as next week.

The sanctions announced against the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will severely restrict its access to international reserves to support its currency and financial system. International sanctions on Russia’s banking system and the exclusion of a number of banks from SWIFT have significantly disrupted Russia’s ability to receive payments for exports, pay for imports and engage in cross-border financial transactions. While it is too early to foresee the full impact of these sanctions, we have already seen a sharp mark-down in asset prices as well as the ruble exchange rate.

Countries that have very close economic links with Ukraine and Russia are at particular risk of scarcity and supply disruptions and are most affected by the increasing inflows of refugees. Moldova has requested an augmentation and rephasing of its existing IMF-supported program to help meet the costs of the current crisis, and IMF staff are actively discussing options with the Moldovan authorities.

Staff will continue to monitor the spillover effects on other countries in the region, in particular those with existing IMF-supported programs and those with elevated vulnerabilities or exposures to the crisis. The ongoing war and associated sanctions will also have a severe impact on the global economy. The Fund will advise our member countries on how to calibrate their macroeconomic policies to manage the range of spillovers, including via trade disruptions, food and other commodity prices, and financial markets.

The IMF will continue to assess the evolving situation, and provide timely policy advice, financial support, and technical assistance to our member countries as needed, in close collaboration with our international partners.

IMF Communications Department

...

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/03/05/pr2261-imf-staff-statement-on-the-economic-impact-of-war-in-ukraine

[Mary Wilson]

Russian banks may issue cards with China's UnionPay as Visa, Mastercard cut links

1:10 PM UTC Last Updated ago

LONDON, March 6 (Reuters) - Credit cards issued by Russian banks using the Visa and Mastercard payment systems will stop functioning overseas after March 9, Russia's central bank said on Sunday, adding that some local lenders would look to use China's UnionPay system instead.

Russian-issued Mastercard and Visa cards would be accepted within Russia until their expiry, the bank said,

The overseas ban also applies to cards issued by local subsidiaries of foreign banks, the bank said.

Its announcement came after U.S. payments firms Visa Inc (V.N) and Mastercard Inc said they were suspending operations in Russia, joining the list of companies that are severing business links with Russia.

The central bank added that many Russian banks plan to issue cards using UnionPay, a system it said was enabled in 180 countries. ...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...source=twitter

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[Pathfinder]

Translation google

The Ukraine War Threatens Moroccan Citrus Exports And Mobilizes The Association Of Producers To Search For Solutions.

On March 7, 2022

It was learned from an informed source that the Association of Citrus Producers in Morocco is holding a meeting today, Monday, March 07, 2022, urgently to study the export situation in light of the war in Ukraine.

This war had major consequences for Moroccan citrus exporters. These facts have completely halted export activity to the Russian market since last week, contributing to a 20% decline in Moroccan producers' revenues.

Ahmed Al-Darrab, General Secretary of the Association of Citrus Producers in Morocco, revealed that the upcoming meeting on Monday will be devoted to examining the extent of the loss incurred in the Moroccan market, and examining the measures that should be taken with regard to professionals.

Al-Darrab said, in a media statement, that the war in Ukraine inflicted a great loss on the Moroccan market, estimated at millions of dirhams, noting that the Russian market received 30% of the total export-oriented quantities, which amount to 550,000 tons.

Morocco has worked to diversify the markets to which its citrus exports are directed, such as the European Union, the United States of America and Canada, but the Russian market remains balanced, as the value of exports to it reached between one billion and 1.5 billion dirhams between 2016 and 2019.

In turn, the head of the Administrative Council of the Moroccan Association of Citrus Producers in Morocco, Berkane Branch, Mohamed El Ghazi, explained that the volume of citrus exports in the eastern region declined by 40 percent during this season due to several factors.

The same spokesman stated that the high freight prices and production cost did not encourage producers to export during this year, as the latter increased from 1.2 to 1.5 dirhams per kilogram produced, at a time when the prices traded in foreign markets do not meet the requirements of foreign markets. Moroccan producers.

https://azulpress.ma/%d8%ad%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d8%a3%d9%88%d9%83%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%af%d8%af-%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b6-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ba/

[sharon sanders]

Russia’s war on Ukraine threatens global food supply

[sharon sanders]

Russian source.

(updated: 01:37 03/09/2022)
77976

The Bank of Russia introduces a temporary procedure for operations with cash currency
From March 9 to September 9, the Bank of Russia introduces a temporary procedure for cash transactions



Read ria.ru in



MOSCOW, March 9 - RIA Novosti. From March 9 to September 9, 2022, the Bank of Russia introduces a temporary procedure for operations with cash currency, the regulator said in a statement.


"From March 9 to September 9, 2022, the Bank of Russia establishes the following procedure for issuing funds from foreign currency deposits or accounts of citizens: all customer funds on foreign currency accounts or deposits are saved and accounted for in the deposit currency, the client can withdraw up to 10 thousand US dollars in cash, and the rest of the funds - in rubles at the market rate on the day of issue," the statement said.


snip

During the period of this temporary order, the currency will be issued in US dollars, regardless of the currency of the account. Conversion of other currencies to USD will be at the market rate on the date of issue. You can get the currency at the cash desk of the bank.

snip

Banks will not sell cash to citizens during the term of the temporary order. It will be possible to exchange cash currency for rubles at any time and in any amount. Clients of all banks, without exception, can receive funds from their foreign currency deposits or accounts. Banks may take several days to bring the required amount in cash to a specific branch.

zhttps://ria.ru/20220309/valyuta-1777200063.html