UK: more than 50% of deaths from Delta variant are in the vaccinated

[Emily]

https://news.yahoo.com/revealed-full...102623618.html

Ross McGuinness
Fri, June 18, 2021, 3:26 AM·3 min read

...

PHE said a total of 806 people in England have been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant as of 14 June, a rise of 423 on the previous week.
Of the 806, 527 (65%) were unvaccinated, 135 (17%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 84 (10%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of this number, 34 (47%) were unvaccinated, 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine and 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose...

[Pathfinder]

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and
variants under investigation in
England

Technical briefing 16
18 June 2021
...

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status...013187/photo/1



Page 12

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_16.pdf

[kiwibird]

This is interesting because I saw an article showing that there seems to be a strong protective effect, with regards to fatalities, on the elderly, who predominantly received the Pfizer vaccine. The last I heard was that the booster shots were going to be provided by Pfizer. Death rates do not appear to be rising as fast as was feared however.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...-rise-24366075

UK Covid infections rise by 37% in a week as PM won't rule out winter lockdown


A total 10,663 new coronavirus cases and five more deaths were reported Monday, compared to 7,742 new infections and three fatalities the same time last week

https://www.newscientist.com/article...-coming-weeks/

Covid-19 news: UK to announce plans for booster shots in coming weeks

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6yRO4vIN2

[Pathfinder]

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and
variants under investigation in
England
Technical briefing 17
25 June 2021
This briefing provides an update on previous briefings up to 18 June 2021

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_17.pdf


Page 14

h/t Collated





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Why most people who now die with Covid in England have been vaccinated

David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Don’t think of this as a bad sign, it’s exactly what’s expected from an effective but imperfect jab

Sun 27 Jun 2021 03.00 EDT
...
It could sound worrying that the majority of people dying in England with the now-dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have been vaccinated. Does this mean the vaccines are ineffective? Far from it, it’s what we would expect from an effective but imperfect vaccine, a risk profile that varies hugely by age and the way the vaccines have been rolled out.
...

https://www.theguardian.com/theobser...medium=twitter

[sharon sanders]

There are several reasons we do not "push" vaccines on this site. However, we have a scientific library full of vaccine information here.

As said before - vaccines are ONLY ONE TOOL in the public health tool box. In my opinion the total emphasis by certain governments on vaccine, vaccine, vaccine...gives the public a false impression. Vaccines can be A HELP....but they ARE NOT guaranteed.

If you have any questions about vaccines, or any medical issues, contact your medical practitioner.

Disclaimer: I am fully vaccinated with Moderna. But I am under no illusion that this will "save me" from severe COVID-19 illness. I am still staying "low key". I do not go into crowds. I am not eating at indoor restaurants. I wear a mask inside buildings because it is summer here in Florida and everyone is sitting in air conditioning. Except the yearly checkup at the vet, I am not letting my animals have contact with animals outside the household. I am high risk and this is not medical advice.

NO SINGLE TOOL IS THE ANSWER.

Use your common sense.


Take care of you.

[Emily]

https://www.reuters.com/article/fact...-idUSL2N2NZ1ZO
Reuters Fact Check June 17, 202111:57 AMUpdated 12 days ago
Fact Check-British Airways is not in ‘crisis talks’ with the government over vaccinated pilots
By Reuters Fact Check
4 Min Read
...
Shared in the form of a voice recording on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, an unidentified male says he has spoken to a “friend who’s a BA pilot” and explains “things are getting crazy” after three fellow pilots passed away (here , here and here).

“They’ve had the third BA pilot die in the last seven days, yeah? Third pilot dead in the last week,” says the man heard in the recording. “The first two guys were in their forties and fifties; this guy, mid-thirties, perfectly fit, no underlying conditions. He gets his second jab and he’s dead within days, exactly the same with the first two.

“Because of this, BA are now in crisis talks with the government about whether to allow vaccinated pilots to fly. The issue with that of course is that about 80%, according to my friend in BA, 80-85% have been injected.”

The man then goes on to say only “10% of pilots will be able to fly,” branding it a “serious issue”.

On Twitter, some users have also shared a photo of what appears to be four books of condolence next to framed pictures of four men in a British Airways-themed lounge (here). “I believe it was actually FOUR young pilots who died due to the Maxine,” tweeted one user.

...
Reuters presented the claims to British Airways, which said they were unfounded and that no such talks were underway with the government. The spokesperson, however, confirmed the authenticity of the four condolence books, as four company pilots had recently passed away. “Our thoughts are with their family and friends,” they said, adding that none of the deaths was linked to vaccines.

In a statement to Reuters, the UK’s Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) also denied any such crisis talks with Britain’s flagship air carrier.

“We have not been made aware of deaths of BA pilots after receiving the Covid-19 vaccine and have not had discussions with BA or other airlines, about preventing pilots from flying after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine,” said Dr. Sarah Branch, the director of vigilance and risk management of medicines for the MHRA. “There are currently no restrictions on aviation or other industries and activities post vaccination...

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[Pathfinder]

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and
variants under investigation in
England

Technical briefing 19
23 July 2021

This briefing provides an update on previous briefings up to 9 July 2021

Pages 18-19:

Table 5. Attendance to emergency care and deaths by vaccination status among all sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in
England from 1 February 2021 to 19 July 2021
...

Deaths within 28 days of
positive specimen date

All cases 460
...
<21 days post dose 1 5
≥21 days post dose 1 60
Received 2 doses 224
Unvaccinated 165

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_19.pdf

[JJackson]

The graph below show the UK CFR time series. It is difficult to think of anything other than the vaccines that could account for the dramatic drop regadless of which variants were dominating at the time.
Source link
UK CFR.JPG

There are also individual graphs by age group which are informative. Looking at the younger age groups the blue CFR scale only goes up to one or two percent but as you get older it gradually increases to 50% but even in the 80+ age group, which peaked at 80%, it has fallen to single digits.

[Emily]

Waves of the 1918 flu in UK looks similar. No vaccine was used then.

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...20)30511-7/pdf
Comparing COVID-19 and the 1918–19 influenza pandemics in the
United Kingdom

[JJackson]

Emily the link seems to be referring to the case wave structure not the changing CFR over time. They look at the estimated CFR of 2% but I did not see anything about it rapidly changing. The data posted is showing that vaccination is not stopping infections but has dramatically impacted CFR. I do not think there is comparable data for 1918, at least I have not seen any. The CFR for H1N1(1918) did drop but over much longer time scales due to acquired immunity and virus/host adaption so it was nothing like 1918/1919 levels by the time it was displaced by H1N1(2009).

[Emily]

Yes, I think I understand your point, JJackson. The top graph in fig. 1 I'm looking at in the paper I linked is strictly looking at deaths, rather than CFR. Those did drop sharply in the graphs as each wave ended. Death waves are nice clean numbers compared to CFR. It would be interesting to see a graph for that for 2020-2021.

[Pathfinder]

COVID: the reason cases are rising among the double vaccinated – it’s not because vaccines aren’t working

July 22, 2021 6.01am EDT Updated July 22, 2021 6.08am EDT

Author
Jamie Hartmann-Boyce
Senior Research Fellow, Departmental Lecturer and Director of Evidence-Based Healthcare DPhil Programme, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Oxford
...
As cases are rising, hospitalisations and deaths are rising too, but not at anywhere near the same level as they were in the winter. In the second half of December 2020 – a time when UK case rates were similar to what they are now – about 3,800 people were being admitted to hospital with COVID each day. The average now is around 700. So though that’s still higher than we wish it was, it’s a lot lower than it was the last time we had this many infections.
...
COVID is also growing among the vaccinated because the number of people in the UK who have had both doses is continuing to rise. At the time of writing, 88% of UK adults have had a first dose and 69% a second. As more and more of the population is vaccinated, the relative proportion of those with COVID who have had both jabs will rise.
...
We also need to remember that the vaccine rollout in the UK has systematically targeted people at the highest risk from COVID. Older people and people with health conditions that make them more vulnerable were the first to get vaccinated. Once vaccinated, these people (including me) are at much lower risk from COVID than they would have been otherwise – but they are still at risk.

That means that when we compare people with both vaccinations being hospitalised to those who haven’t had both doses, we aren’t comparing like with like. People with both vaccinations are more likely to have been at greater risk from COVID in the first place. This makes them both more likely to be hospitalised and more likely to have already received both of their vaccine doses.
...
We don’t have clear estimates yet from Public Health England on the level of protection against death caused by the delta variant – fortunately, this is partly driven by the fact deaths have been relatively low during this third wave in the UK.
...
https://theconversation.com/covid-th...working-164797

[sharon sanders]

bump this

[Pathfinder]

England
Technical briefing 20

6 August 2021
This briefing provides an update on previous briefings up to 23 July 2021
...

Table 5. Attendance to emergency care and deaths of confirmed and provisional Delta cases in England by vaccination status
(1 February 2021 to 2 August 2021)
...

Deaths within 28 days of
positive specimen date

All cases 742
...
Received 2 doses 402

Unvaccinated 253

Pages 18-19:

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_20.pdf

[JJackson]

It should be noted that this data covers a time period from when very few people had been vaccinated to when there was excellent coverage in the higher risk groups so it is difficult to draw meaning from it.

Looking in a little more detail you can see a fairly rapid change from Alpha to Delta VOC dominance occurred at the beginning of May (figure 5 page 22). In the over 50s vaccine coverage is currently about 90% and, as the under 50s started to be offered shots mid July, most of the older group will have had two shots by the time Delta achieved dominance.
Going back to the table 5 data we can see in the over 50s 389 deaths in the fully vaccinated and 205 deaths in the vaccinated. But as there are 9 times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated we need to multiply 205 by 9 giving 1845 showing a little under 5 times the death rate for the unvaccinated.
The maths is more complicated for 'All cases' without a breakdown by age group and vaccination status but we do have usable data for the high risk group.

Table 4 gives the deaths for Alpha (over 50s - 4.8%, all cases - 1.1%) and Delta (2%, 0.2%) which seems to show Alpha to be far more lethal but is probably more a reflection of the overall vaccine coverage at the time each was dominant.

[Pathfinder]

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and
variants under investigation in
England

Technical briefing 23
17 September 2021
...
Table 5. Attendance to emergency care and deaths of sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in England by vaccination status
(1 February 2021 to 12 September 2021)
...

Deaths within 28 days of positive specimen date

All cases 2,542
...
Unlinked 41

<21 days post dose 1 17

≥21 days post dose 1 149

≥14 days post dose 2 1,613

Unvaccinated 722


Pages 19-20

https://assets.publishing.service.go...3_21_09_16.pdf

[Pathfinder]

REUTERS FACT CHECK
OCTOBER 3, 20214:01 PMUPDATED 19 HOURS AGO

Fact Check-Data from Public Health England does not undermine role of COVID-19 vaccines

By Reuters Fact Check
...
On page 20, this figure of 2,542 is broken down by vaccination status. Among the fully vaccinated (more than 14 days after a second dose) there were 1,613 deaths (63.4% of the total). Among the unvaccinated there were 722 deaths (28.4% of the total). The remaining deaths were among the partially vaccinated.
...
Reuters Fact Check has previously addressed social media posts questioning why more cases and deaths might be reported amongst a vaccinated population than an unvaccinated one.

“The data should be interpreted taking into consideration the context of very high vaccine coverage in the UK population. Even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated,” a spokesperson for PHE previously told Reuters via email (here).

Dr Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St Andrews, also told Reuters that when much of a population has been vaccinated, “most infections and deaths are expected to be among those vaccinated”.
...

VERDICT
Missing context. Suggestions that higher numbers vaccinated individuals are dying in England than unvaccinated omits context that most of the population has been vaccinated. Evidence shows that COVID-19 vaccines reduce the risk of serious illness, hospitalization and death.
...

https://www.reuters.com/article/delt...on-redirect=in