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Alpha B.1.1.7 Variant of COVID19 coronavirus thread

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  • #46
    @kakape 33m
    UK experts have grown more confident about their conclusions on B.1.1.7, says @PeterHorby
    , who chairs NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group):
    “We now have high confidence
    that this variant does have a transmission advantage.” (“moderate” on 18.12.)

    lots more interesting info in the SMC organised presser with several NERVTAG members (still going on).
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    In 2 weeks we may discover that even the most stringent lockdown cannot prevent the spread
    of the new variant of Covid. If so the government will have to develop a new strategy based
    on containment of the vulnerable while the vaccine is rolled out. https://thetimes.co.uk/article/race-t
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Preprint on the South African #sarscov2 variant 501Y.V2 by
    @Tuliodna
    and others is now up here: https://krisp.org.za/manuscripts/MEDRXIV-2020-248640v1-de_Oliveira.pdf






    Last edited by gsgs; December 21, 2020, 12:32 PM.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #47
      Early sign that new strain of Covid infects more children


      Strong evidence new mutant strain is 50% more transmissible than previous virus

      There is an indication that the new variant of coronavirus infected more children, a scientist on the Government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats advisory group (NervTag) has said.

      Speaking at the NervTag Q&A briefing on the new variant, hosted by Science Media Centre, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said there was strong evidence the new mutant strain is 50% more transmissible than the previous virus.

      He added: “We will need to gather more data to see how it behaves going forward.

      “There are other epidemiologically interesting trends with virus, there is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children … but we haven’t established any sort of causality on that, but we can see that in the data.”

      <snip>

      Comment


      • #48
        New variant of Covid reported in three other European countries


        There are also media reports of cases in two more EU nations

        Cases of Covid-19 involving the new coronavirus variant observed in Britain have been reported in at least three other countries in Europe, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said.

        The Stockholm-based agency said in a “threat assessment” that while preliminary analysis in the UK suggests the new variant is “significantly more transmissible”, there is no indication that infections are more severe.

        It said “timely efforts” to prevent and control the spread of cases of the new variant are needed.

        The ECDC said a few cases with the new variant have been reported already by Iceland, Denmark and the Netherlands.

        It also cited media reports of cases in Belgium and Italy.

        <snip>

        Comment


        • #49
          UK coronavirus variant may be more able to infect children - scientists

          By Kate Kelland

          LONDON (Reuters) - A new variant of the coronavirus spreading rapidly in Britain carries mutations that could mean children are as susceptible to becoming infected with it as adults - unlike previous strains, scientists said on Monday.

          Briefing reporters on the latest findings, scientists from the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) who are tracking the variant said it had swiftly become the dominant strain in the south of Britain, and could soon do the same across the country.

          “We now have high confidence that this variant does have a transmission advantage over other virus variants that are currently in the UK,” said Peter Horby, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at Oxford University and chair of NERVTAG.

          “There is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children,” said Neil Ferguson, a professor and infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London and also a member of NERVTAG.

          “We haven’t established any sort of causality on that, but we can see it in the data,” Ferguson said. “We will need to gather more data to see how it behaves going forward.”

          <snip>

          Comment


          • #50

            WHO thinks the new mutation can be controlled
            --------------------------------------
            they don't say what it costs. They ignore the risk of another financial crisis with Country-defaults
            and currency-turbolences. We can eliminate most diseases with money, but when the system
            collapses we just cannot feed the populations and pay their health anymore.
            It's an economical problem. It's an ethical problem : how much worth is our health as compared
            to the health of our descendents, of future generations


            WHO h?lt die entdeckte Mutation des Coronavirus f?r kontrollierbar.
            --------------------------------
            WHO has lost its scientific competence.
            Remember Chen,Fukuda etc....
            Now it's mainly ethical, almost religious with Tedros.
            Where is Bruce Aylward ? Remember the China-mission in Feb.

            ------------------------------------------------------------

            there will be more and new mutations. We also have it in South Africa.
            They do not understand it. WHO has no clue.
            They _want_ it to be controllable, but the evidence is against it.
            "out of control" says Hancock.
            Last edited by gsgs; December 21, 2020, 08:35 PM.
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #51
              the South Africa mutations are listed now !


              at least the nonsynonymous ones.
              Rambaut speculates that they are all related to N501Y,
              (supporting it, optimising it)

              he posts a tree with >50 South Africa sequences, presumably from GISAID

              -------------------------------------
              they have intermediate mutations in SA, so not just one immunodeficient patient.

              I speculate about some mechanism to increase mutations, to deactivate
              the proofreading. Still puzzled, why 55% are nonsynonymous
              while for flu it's <20% and the distance to RaTG13 is 13% nonsyn.

              (maybe I said this already ? hard to check in this thread)
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #52
                Fauci warns against "overreacting" to new strain,
                advises against banning UK flights
                {so Countries who see this differently, like most of Europe would likely have to ban flights from US then ....}
                -------------------------------------------------------------
                08:30 WHO :
                https://www.who.int/csr/don/21-decem...ed-kingdom/en/
                Most B1.1.7 cases were <60
                calibrating travel related risk mitigation measures in the context of international travel,.
                -------------------------------------------------------------
                Last edited by gsgs; December 22, 2020, 03:35 AM.
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


              • #53



                FDF
                @Foodanddrinkfed
                ?
                Dec 20
                Responding to this evening's suspension of accompanied freight traffic from the UK to France, FDF's CEO Ian Wright said: “Tonight’s suspension of accompanied freight traffic from the UK to France has the potential to cause serious disruption to UK Christmas fresh food supplies /1
                4
                56
                33
                FDF
                @Foodanddrinkfed
                ?
                Dec 20
                – and exports of UK food and drink. Continental truckers will not want to travel here if they have a real fear of getting marooned. The Government must very urgently persuade the French government to exempt accompanied freight from its ban.”

                Comment


                • #54
                  France and UK reach deal over border, Grant Shapps says

                  Tuesday 22 December 2020, 10:02pm

                  France and the UK have reached an agreement to reopen their border after it was closed amid concerns over a new strain of coronavirus.

                  ... Transport Secretary Grant Shapps confirmed a deal had been struck to resume travel across the border, but he urged lorry drivers not to head to Kent in the hope of getting across the border soon.

                  He added: "We'll be saying more on hauliers who at the moment must stay put, they mustn't travel to Kent at this time."

                  Transport Secretary Grant Shapps confirmed a deal had been struck to resume travel across the border, but he urged lorry drivers not to head to Kent. | ITV National News

                  Comment


                  • #55

                    UK's port of Dover says reopening to outgoing traffic


                    Issued on: 23/12/2020 - 01:27


                    Comment


                    • #56

                      Dear travelers:


                      In accordance with the requirements of the epidemic prevention and control work, Sichuan Airlines will suspend the carriage of passengers from the UK (GB) transiting to China via a third country from the United Kingdom (GB) from 24:00 on December 22, 2020 Beijing time. The resumption time will be notified separately.


                      If you have already purchased the above-mentioned ticket, please contact the original issuing place for refund procedures as soon as possible.


                      Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.


                      Comment


                      • #57
                        there seems to be a pattern :
                        occasionally we have an increase in mutations, mostly nonsynonymous, also deletions. We don't understand, why
                        We now had it in South Africa and South-England, and probably other places.

                        Also, we had at least 2 times now mutations at 3 consecutive positions. Unusual. We don't understand, why.

                        Also we have 55% nonsynonymous mutations, while the difference to RaTG13 and other differences have only 15% nonsynonymous.
                        We don't understand why.

                        -----------------------------------------------------------
                        Anyway, the growth of strains with certain spike-protein mutations should be surveilled.
                        Other such strains like B.1.1.7 may emerge. We must identify them earlier:
                        I'm trying to start here :
                        https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ge...msg267/#msg267
                        hopefully others will also do it or even find it and help updating

                        -------------------------------------------------------------------
                        new analysis :
                        https://khub.net/documents/135939561...=1608569319930
                        owever this was prepared 11 days ago and the latest NERVTAG assessment is 'high confidence' of increased transmission
                        ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Racaniello still sceptical :
                        https://twitter.com/theosanderson/st...66269421993987
                        -------------------------------------------------------------------
                        WHO-meeting about B.1.1.7 today
                        --------------------------------------------------------------
                        Last edited by gsgs; December 23, 2020, 03:21 AM.
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • gsgs
                          gsgs commented
                          Editing a comment
                          good dailymail article :
                          If it wasn't for the Covid-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, hailed as the 'best genomic sequencing programme in the world', the new strain would have likely slipped under the radar.


                          > not completely fair to slap travel bans on the UK
                          that's a strange way to see it. UK by itself should stop travel as Wuhan should have done in Jan.
                          Exporting dangerous infectious disease is not nice.
                          Remember, what we had calling for the last decades with WHO,CDC,ECDC, ...wrt. H5N1,Ebola,MERS. etc.
                          Punishing countries with travel bans ?
                          China, so successful in containing it inside China, now gets back what it exported in Jan+Feb .
                          In a more transmissable form. Greatly amplified outside China.
                          They could not have expected that others would be able to eradicate it as they did ....
                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          full sequence of the Pfizer vax:

                          I don't understand, why there are phis in it and why it doesn't match the spike
                          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          Last edited by gsgs; December 23, 2020, 05:42 AM.

                      • #58
                        bump this

                        Comment


                        • #59
                          New ‘more transmissible’ coronavirus variant discovered in UK


                          New variant was brought in by travelers from South Africa.
                          BY WILLIAM ADKINS
                          December 23, 2020 5:44 pm

                          British Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced that a new “highly concerning” variant of the coronavirus has been discovered in two individuals returning from South Africa.

                          “It is yet more transmissible and it appeared to have mutated further than the new variant that has been discovered here,” Hancock said in Wednesday’s Downing Street news conference.

                          The government is also asking anybody that has been to South Africa in the past two weeks and their close contacts to quarantine immediately. “These measures are temporary, while we investigate this further new strain, which is currently being analyzed,” he added.

                          <snip>

                          Comment


                          • #60
                            COVID-19: What do we know about the second coronavirus variant found in the UK?

                            ...Mr Hancock said it was "highly concerning" that the variant was "yet more transmissible" than the original strain - and also that it "appears to have mutated further" than the first new variant, though to an unknown extent.

                            Public Health England's chief adviser Dr Susan Hopkins added that the two variants have different mutations.

                            https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ound-in-the-uk

                            Comment

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