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Zika infections drastically underreported during 2015 epidemic

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  • #1

    Zika infections drastically underreported during 2015 epidemic

    by Jessica Sieff
    October 01, 2020

    More than 100 million infections of Zika virus within Central and South America and the Caribbean went undetected between 2015 and 2018, according to a new study.

    The University of Notre Dame researchers who conducted the study, published in the Public Library of Science journal for Neglected Tropical Diseases, said the results show a need for improvements to current infectious disease surveillance systems. The study also provides insight into the potential severity of future outbreaks and the current state of herd immunity of Zika in the West.

    Zika infections drastically underreported during 2015 epidemic // Department of Biological Sciences // University of Notre Dame
    https://biology.nd.edu/news/zika-infections-drastically-underreported-during-2015-epidemic/
    Advancing human and environmental health through teaching, research and outreach.

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  • #2
    Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas

    Sean M. Moore ,Rachel J. Oidtman,K. James Soda,Amir S. Siraj,Robert C. Reiner Jr.,Christopher M. Barker,
    T. Alex Perkins
    Published: September 28, 2020
    Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008640
    Author summary During the recent Zika epidemic in the Americas millions of people were likely infected, but the true size of the epidemic is unknown because of gaps in the surveillance system. The infection attack rate (IAR)—defined as the proportion of the population that was infected over the course of the epidemic—has important implications for the longer-term epidemiology of Zika in the region, such as the timing, location, and likelihood of future outbreaks. To estimate the IAR and the total number of people infected, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries and territories where subnational data were publicly available. Datasets included confirmed and suspected Zika cases in pregnant women and in the total population, Zika-associated Guillan-Barré syndrome cases, and cases of congenital Zika syndrome. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors that leveraged the different case report types to simultaneously estimate national and subnational reporting probabilities, the fraction of symptomatic infections, and subnational IARs. In these 15 countries and territories, estimates of Zika IAR ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador. Totaling these infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories in the region, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas were infected with ZIKV by the end of 2018.


    This is an uncorrected proof.

    Abstract

    Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador, with significant subnational variability in every country. Totaling infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas had been infected by the end of 2018. These estimates represent the most extensive attempt to determine the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, offering a baseline for assessing the risk of future Zika epidemics in this region.

    Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas
    https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0008640
    Author summary During the recent Zika epidemic in the Americas millions of people were likely infected, but the true size of the epidemic is unknown because of gaps in the surveillance system. The infection attack rate (IAR)—defined as the proportion of the population that was infected over the course of the epidemic—has important implications for the longer-term epidemiology of Zika in the region, such as the timing, location, and likelihood of future outbreaks. To estimate the IAR and the total number of people infected, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries and territories where subnational data were publicly available. Datasets included confirmed and suspected Zika cases in pregnant women and in the total population, Zika-associated Guillan-Barré syndrome cases, and cases of congenital Zika syndrome. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors that leveraged the different case report types to simultaneously estimate national and subnational reporting probabilities, the fraction of symptomatic infections, and subnational IARs. In these 15 countries and territories, estimates of Zika IAR ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067–0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214–0.514) in Ecuador. Totaling these infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories in the region, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas were infected with ZIKV by the end of 2018.



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